Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/311673
maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 14 MAY 2014 News 6 Super-size me? THIS time round, Labour is fighting the election on two fronts, retaining former PN voters who switched last year and mobilising the core vote. On the other hand, the PN's mis- sion is to mobilise its traditional voters while tacitly favouring the abstention of Labour's so-called 'soldiers of steel'. It is on both fronts that MaltaToday's surveys indicate problems for Muscat. Clearly, Labour's intention is to score big and deal the PN a heavy blow from which it would find it hard to recover. This will enable the government to navigate the more turbulent mid-term years, where its credibility will be severely tested on issues like the economy, land use and public transport. Labour's keen interest in winning big is evidenced by the large number of government and party billboards splashed on our roads. The dynamics of this particular campaign are dictated by its close proximity to last year's landslide victory for Muscat's post-ideological "movement". By Maltese standards this was no normal victory, but a veritable shift of voters from the PN to the PL. The question many are asking is: will elections due on 24 May cement Muscat's insurmount- able lead, or will the new result ex- pose the 2013 result as a fluke? Back to normal? For if the PN manages to narrow Labour's lead substantially, the re- sult will restore a sense of normality in Maltese politics, with both par- ties being perceived as having an equal chance to win power in 2018. This will severely limit Muscat's space of manoeuvre and condition his actions in years to come. On the other hand, if Muscat wins with the same margin, the PN will be dealt a lethal blow and Muscat would be given a licence to proceed ahead with the same style of gov- ernment. For the margin of victory not only demoralised the Opposition, but turned Muscat into a larger-than- life figure who inspires awe among both his supporters and adversaries. For Labourites, he is a miracle-mak- er who managed to lure an impres- sive amount of Nationalist voters. So far this alone was sufficient for them to overlook clear departures from Labour principles. On the other hand, for Nationalist voters, Muscat retains an aura of in- vincibility and a power of seduction for a category of voters who grew up supporting the PN as the natural party of government. The greatest risk for the PN is that elections on 24 May will confirm Labour as Mal- ta's natural party of government. If this happens, the Opposition risks facing a snowball effect as Labour continues to seduce voters from the other side with the prom- ise of a share of spoils. The aura of invincibility gave Muscat a license to press ahead with controversial reforms like civil un- ions and gay adoptions, an overhaul of planning rules and the sale of passports, all of which may appeal to particular segments of his elec- toral block while annoying others. The sum of these annoyances may have a bearing on the turnout of PL voters on 24 May. Many undecided voters may be asking: what can we expect of Muscat if he is 'super- sized' by our vote on 24 May? Will we have more civil liberties or will we give hunters and speculators a blank cheque? Yet one tragic outcome of the elec- tion would be that of Muscat aban- doning his progressive reforms in various sectors to focus exclusively on extending his support through patronage, something which could further downgrade the standards of governance. The 2013 victory also legitimised a highly personalised style of govern- ment, where the leader has a licence to shift from hawkish positions on migration to more humanitarian considerations in the space of a few months. It also gave him a licence to press ahead with the partisan oc- cupation of strategic posts, while sugar-coating what was, after all, a betrayal of the 'taghna lkoll' motto with the appointment of the odd Nationalist, like Lou Bondi. All in all, what is at stake for Mus- cat is whether the result will super size him, enabling him to usher a hegemony over Maltese society similar to, but less divisive than, Mintoff 's in the 1970s, or down-size him into a normal politician who has to constantly weigh the pros- pect of losing consent. In a way, los- ing the magic of the 2013 campaign is the greatest risk faced by Muscat on 24 May. Soldiers of steel If there was an unfortunate mo- ment for Muscat in this campaign, it was his attribution of the "soldiers of steel" title to Cyrus Engerer. In so doing, Muscat equated the plight of Labourites in the 1960s – who were denied the sacraments and buried on unconsecrated ground – with plight of a politician found guilty by the courts of a crime. While Engerer may represent some of the progressive impulses in the party on themes like gay rights, he had to bow down from the campaign after being found guilty of committing a dishonour- able – albeit personal – act. While events in 2011 suggest that the walls came tumbling down on Eneger the very moment he had defected from the PN, the comparison evoked be- tween one of the most cherished moments in Labour's history and Engerer's personal misdemeanours may well backfire with the real sol- diers of steel and their families. As left-wing intellectual John Bal- dacchino observed on his Facebook page: "The price of steel has gone down. My father had to suffer the price of his convictions. Now every charlatan seems to deserve the ti- tle." In some ways Muscat's obsession with "soldiers of steel" first evoked by Muscat during the 1 May rally, represents a real fear on the part of the Labour leader that he risks hav- ing his designs thwarted by a low turnout among Labour voters. In fact, a large category of voters inclined towards Labour, but ulti- mately undecided on who to vote for (or whether they will vote at all) have been a consistent presence in surveys. So far, surveys indicate that there are over 20,000 voters who prefer Muscat to Busuttil, but are either undecided or intent on not vot- ing on 24 May. These include both switchers and voters who voted La- bour in both 2008 and 2013. This is why the PN is tacitly en- couraging the abstention of this category by evoking a contrast be- tween the typical Labour voter and the new clique created by Muscat, which reaps the benefits. While some of these voters may have some ideological qualms on some of Muscat's decisions and nuances – with some even resent- ing having to vote for the European Parliament due to latent euroscepti- cism – other hard-core voters may Should the electorate super- size Joseph Muscat or should it cut him down to size? JAMES DEBONO explores the dynamics of an electoral campaign taking place a year after last year's 'taghna lkoll' tsunami James Debono Super-size me? James Debono Prime Minister Joseph Muscat (left) should be wary of the kind of rhetoric he uses on migration, given the 'pushback' furore last summer Using the politically-loaded term 'soldier of steel' to describe Cyrus Engerer may have been a tactical error on Muscat's part