Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/318021
6 maltatoday, SUNDAY, 25 MAY 2014 Poll of polls: Labour head ing for absolute majority JAMES DEBONO LABOUR is heading to win an ab- solute majority of between 51% and 55%. This emerges from an extrapolation of results of polls conducted between 4 May and 22 May, after removing don't knows and respondents who won't be voting. The mean gap between the two par- ties, based on extrapolated results of surveys conducted in the last three weeks of polling stands at 9 points. The latest survey conducted be- tween Monday and Wednesday situ- ates the gap between the major parties at 6 points. But after removing 'don't knows' and 'non voters' the gap be- tween the PL and the PN rises to 8 points. MaltaToday is informed that this gap tallies with internal surveys car- ried out by both major parties. Surveys conducted over the past three weeks consistently showed Al- fred Sant and Roberta Metsola as the two main front-runners in their re- spective parties. Marlene Mizzi and Miriam Dalli trailed Sant in the La- bour Party while David Casa emerged as the PN's runner up. Result hinges on undecided ex-PL voters Surveys show that the size of the gap between the two parties depends on the level of abstention in both camps. Surveys suggest that an 85% turnout among PN voters in 2013 against a PL turnout of 80% in same election will yield a smaller extrapolated gap of be- tween 6 and 8 points. On the other hand, an 80% turnout in both parties will yield a gap of over 9 points in Labour's favour. One important factor weighing on these elections is the behaviour of undecided respondents on Saturday. It is probable that this segment also includes respondents who will not be voting. One major factor which makes the gap between the two parties hard to predict is the large number of re- spondents who trust Muscat more than Busuttil but who remained un- sure about who to vote for in the MEP elections. This category represented 6% of re- spondents in the latest MaltaToday survey. This means that if this cat- egory turns up to vote on Saturday, Labour's margin of victory would be closer to the 2013 election result. But if a large section of these voters ab- stain, Labour may win with a relatively small margin. It is in this context that both major parties seem keen on encouraging ab- stention on the other side, while seek- ing to mobilise core voters. That ex- plains Simon Busuttil's call on voters to show Muscat the "yellow card" and Muscat's constant pleas to the party's "soldiers of steel". Moreover, in a bid to rally voters, Muscat changed tactics right in the middle of the campaign. While ini- tially underplaying the importance of the result – presenting his party as the underdog of the campaign – towards the end of the campaign he expressed confidence in another landslide vic- tory. He even went as far as to take the risk of portraying these elections as a choice between him and Busuttil. This could be interpreted as a move to un- derscore the importance of these elec- tions among lukewarm Labour voters. Muscat could also be counting on polls showing that he is more trusted than Busuttil. But it is not just Labour which faces disgruntlement or a lack of interest among its voters in these elections. Surveys have shown that around 20% of both PN and PL voters in 2013 are either undecided or won't vote. But while former PL voters are more likely to trust Muscat, most undecided PN voters trust neither of the two leaders. The scale of Labour's victory will not only depend on how many former La- bour voters turn up to vote but also on how many former PN voters will stay at home. Although a low turnout on Saturday may well indicate problems for La- bour, much depends on the turnout of PN voters. Surveys have consistently shown a very small shift from the PL to the PN. Only a small category of switchers (PN voters in 2008 and PL voters in 2013) are shifting from PL to PN or AD. What is more significant is the An extrapolation of survey results conducted over the past three weeks by MaltaToday shows the PL heading for an absolute majority of between 51% and 55%. But the scale of Labour's victory depends on a strategic category of voters who right up to the last survey preferred Joseph Muscat to Simon Busuttil PN leader Simon Busuttil (left) and Prime Minister Joseph Muscat (right) casting their vote yesterday. Surveys conducted over the past three weeks consistently showed Alfred Sant (PL) and Roberta Metsola (PN) as the front-runners of their respective parties PHOTOGRAPHY BY RAY ATTARD AND CHRIS MANGION