Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/318021
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 25 MAY 2014 News 7 high level of indecision among switch- ers registered in all surveys undertak- en in the past weeks. This shows that in its attempts to mobilise its core vote, the PL may well have alienated switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013. Surveys indicate that support for all third parties combined is under 4%. Support for AD seems to be close to somewhere between 3% and 4% while support for the far right oscillates between 1% and 2%. But support for third parties may be under- or over- represented in surveys due to the 4-point margin of error. Surveys also tend to underestimate support for the far right, as people may not be keen on any public asso- ciation with notorious candidates like Imperium Europa's Norman Lowell. This is because in surveys the world over, respondents are not likely to admit to what others may perceive as anti-social behaviour. Who will grab the PN's third seat? Surveys provide no clue as to who will win the PN's third seat. As things stand, a probable third PN candidate will be the last one to be elected, prob- ably without securing a full quota. When it comes to the choice of candidates, the survey indicates that within the PL camp, Alfred Sant, Mar- lene Mizzi and Miriam Dalli are the most likely to get elected, although a large vote for Sant would mean that other candidates may come back into the game after Sant's surplus is dis- tributed. A disproportionate share of Sant's vote to any candidate will alter the dynamics of the elections. MaltaToday's survey gives incum- bent Marlene Mizzi a small advantage over newcomer Miriam Dalli for the runner-up position. But even this bat- tle seems to be too close to call, and Dalli's popularity as a TV personal- ity may boost her support among re- spondents who make up their mind on which candidate they choose at the very last moment. The donkey vote which penalised Mizzi in the 2004 MEP elections may also play a role this time round, as a segment of candidates tends to choose a particular candidate and then pro- ceed by voting all the party's candi- dates in the same alphabetical order as they are listed on the ballot sheet. As regards the PN, the only certainty is that Roberta Metsola and incum- bent David Casa start as favourites for the PN – two sure seats, while a pos- sible third seat will be determined by the complex system of vote transfers. In the PN's case, vote transfers from eliminated candidates may play a more decisive role than in Labour, where Sant is set to win a greater por- tion of votes than either Metsola or Casa. Moreover, although both major par- ties are likely to win three seats each, their designs could be thwarted by voters who vote for one or two can- didates. A segment of voters may be im- pressed by the qualities of strong personalities like Sant or Metsola, but may use their vote to express their disillusionment at the quality of other candidates. The number of these voters may be an important factor in the final seat allocation. Others may also give their first preference to either of the two big parties and continued on AD or another party. Some may even be tempted to choose candidates among all the parties on the list. Voters may feel more free to experiment with their vote in an election where the govern- ment of the country is not at stake. This will probably result in a situa- tion where one – or even two – candi- dates will be elected without reaching the required quota. The quota itself may also be reduced thanks to a low turn out. In such an eventuality, even third party candi- dates with a significant number of first preferences may get back in the game. But their survival will depend on the number of transfers they receive from candidates belonging to the big parties. Poll of polls: Labour head ing for absolute majority THE EXTRAPOLATION Removing the undecided, 'don't knows', and 'not voting' from previous polls and distributing the result proportionately amongst the voters who said they will be voting for one party or another Results based on extrapolation of four polls conducted in past three weeks: Total vote (%) Mean* PL 51.1 to 54.9 52.4 PN 41.4 to 44.4 43 AD 3.1 to 4 3.7 Others 0 to 1.7 1 *average of extrapolated result for each party in the four polls conducted over past month Extrapolation of surveys conducted in May (undecided and non-voters excluded) May 4 May 11 May 18 May 22 PL 54.9 51 52.5 51.1 PN 41.4 44.4 43 43.2 AD 3.7 3.1 3.8 4 Others 0 1.5 0.7 1.7 Voting intentions during the past month (%) May 4 May 11 May 18 May 22 PN 25.6 34 30.7 31.5 PL 34 39.1 37.5 37.2 AD 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 Others 0 1.1 0.5 1.2 Not voting 5.8 4.4 5.9 5.4 Don't know 20 11 17.7 11.5 No reply 12.3 8 5 10.3 In its attempts to mobilise the core vote, the PL may well have alienated switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013