Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/635436
6 In politics deputy leaders normally serve two roles: either to prop up the leader by endearing him with the reluctant grass roots, as John Prescott did for Tony Blair in the United Kingdom and Abela did for Muscat in Malta, or to be groomed as future leader in the way Law- rence Gonzi was when he served as Eddie Fenech Adami's deputy. Mostly deputy leaders fit in the first role (that of propping up the leader) while designate leaders like Gordon Brown shunned serving as official seconds in command. But sometimes they also serve an- other role: that of filling a gap either to block others with future aspira- tions from taking it, or to fill the gap until the time is mature for a real contender to stand out. This is mostly the case when the authority of the leader is undisputed and talk of succession is seen as premature. This seems also to be the case with Labour, where Joseph Muscat's authority in the party is undisputed and where any talk of the succes- sion question seems inopportune and disloyal. Yet it was Muscat himself who made succession an issue by speak- ing of stepping down after 10 years in power. This is why some may be interpreting Toni Abela's ap- pointment in the European Court of Auditors as an opportunity for Muscat to designate his successor, as Fenech Adami did when Gonzi was elected deputy leader. Curiously, Abela's kick upstairs bears similarity to Tonio Borg's elevation to EU Commissioner in 2012 to make way for the election of Simon Busuttil to deputy leader, following a contest against Finance Minister Tonio Fenech. It was this contest which paved the way for Busuttil to win the leadership after the 2013 defeat. But the similarities may well stop here. For Muscat can't afford to choose the next Labour leader be- fore the next election, which will determine whether Simon Busut- til will stay on as Pn leader. In this sense a candidature by Konrad Mizzi may well be seen as a stop gap measure: that of placing a com- petent manager and loyalist who lacks the gravitas of a future party leader. Ideological drift Toni Abela's nomination to the court of auditors has not only ce- mented the party's ideological drift to the right but has also paved the way for statute changes to enable the party to elect a deputy leader for party affairs from among its current crop of MPs and MEPs. Abela, one of the party's few left wing intellectual voices, served to counterbalance the pro business orientation of Muscat's party. His departure may well weaken the party's appeal to socialists who saw in Abela the last representative in a party dominated by careerists sing- ing Muscat's pro business man- tra. Abela's departure would also further weaken the party's ability to keep the government in check through constructive internal criti- cism. For Abela – a political maverick who helped found Alternattiva Demokratika – not only lacked any future leadership aspiration but retained a sense of intellectual au- thenticity. Surely, so far, Abela's loy- alty to Muscat was unquestionable. But there were clear limits to how much Abela could be restrained in any increasingly corporatised political landscape. His departure, which comes after the appointment of Marie Louise Coleiro Preca as President, also paves the way for a more homogenous party moulded in Muscat's image. The problem for Muscat is that anyone from the party's parliamen- tary ranks who is elevated to deputy leader may well be seen as Muscat's anointed successor. The only al- ternative to this scenario would be to elect a party veteran with no leadership ambitions as party dep- uty leader. But Labour already has one such deputy leader. The party has two deputy leaders, one for party and one for parliamentary affairs. This division of roles was introduced by Mintoff as a way of weakening the post and thus quell Lorry Sant's ambitions to use this post as a step- ping stone. Louis Grech, who presently serves as deputy leader for parliamentary affairs, is simply too old to aspire to become Muscat's successor. But an- yone interested in the newly vacant post will either be claiming the fu- ture leadership of the party or will have to renounce having such am- bitions before he or she are elected to the post. Muscat's ten year plan What makes the election of the next deputy leader extremely sen- sitive is Muscat's own declaration that he would be stepping down by 2023. "I always said that we have – that I have – a 15-year plan; five years in Opposition and 10 years in gov- ernment," the Prime Minister said quite significantly on the current affairs programme 'Reporter' in november. This means that Labour will get a new leader in seven or eight years' time. With Muscat's status as un- disputed leader and his highly per- sonalised style of leadership, the transition could be difficult in such a short span of time. Muscat's ten year plan evokes two possible scenarios. Assuming he wins the next election, Muscat could serve two full terms as PM and immediately resign after the 2023 election, irrespective of the result. But the self-imposed 10-year timetable may well make it unlikely for Muscat to serve two full terms, so he could opt for two shorter, four-year terms, hoping that a third term would give his party a two- year breathing space to elect a new leader. But that would depend on winning an improbable third con- secutive election. Muscat may be more likely to call for an early election in this legisla- ture, seizing a favourable moment (after the conclusion of the EU presidency next year) to avoid the prospect of an Opposition invigor- ated by narrowing the gap at the next election. Muscat knows that another elec- toral humiliation would throw the Opposition into total disarray, and his out-of-the-box thinking could solve the party's leadership dilem- ma by shortening the legislative term. Muscat may well be aping Tony Blair, who renounced the leadership after three consecutive electoral victories. Blair and Gordon Brown were said to have sealed a pact well maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 3 FEbruArY 2016 News Will the next PL deputy leader prop up Muscat to help him win the next election or will he step in for the leadership after Muscat fulfils his promise to step down after ten years in power? asks James Debono Analysis: Is Muscat looking Labour's deputy leader for parliamentary affairs, Louis Grech (right) is too old to aspire to become Muscat's successor