Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/827043
maltatoday, TUESDAY, 23 MAY 2017 JAMES DEBONO DIFFERENT percentages of undecided and non-voters account for differences in the PN's vote between surveys. Mal- taToday and Independent surveys con- firm swing to PN while Torca survey registers high abstention rate in both camps. Three surveys conducted over the past weekend show the PL leading by be- tween four and 10 points. While the three surveys concur on La- bour's result (40%-41%), the Torca and MaltaToday surveys differ on percent- age of non-voters, especially among PN voters in 2013 while the Independent survey includes a higher percentage of don't knows than the other two. While MaltaToday's survey shows less than 1% of 2013 PN voters not voting, the Torca survey puts the figure at a staggering 7.4% of 2013 PN voters. The gap between the two parties is narrowest in the MaltaToday survey where Labour is leading by four points, and highest in the Torca and Independ- ent surveys, where Labour leads by 10 points. But the Independent survey includes a higher percentage of undecided (five points more than MaltaToday's). In its analysis of the survey the In- dependent reveals that Labour's lead would fall to 6.2 points if undecided voters retain their 2013 voting prefer- ence on June 3. This brings it closer to MaltaToday's result. Defying all trends in other surveys the Torca survey shows that the PN is losing more votes to the PL than vice-versa. Moreover according to the Torca survey only 1.6% of Labour voters in 2013 would vote PN now – compared to 5.7% in the MaltaToday surveys and 7.7% in the Independent survey. The Torca survey also includes a higher percentage of non-voters compared to the MaltaToday survey. While in the MaltaToday survey on- ly 0.6% of PN voters and 1.5% of PL voters will not vote, the Torca survey shows a staggering 7% of PN voters and 8% of PL voters not voting. This suggests that instead of swing- ing to PN, the Torca survey shows Labour voters opting not to vote. The Torca survey's high rate of non-voters among PN voters in 2013 (7%) has not been registered in Mal- taToday's surveys conducted imme- diately before and during the elec- toral campaign. These two factors explain the lower percentage of voters opting for the PN and the larger gap between the two parties in the Torca survey. Both the Malta Independent and Mal- taToday surveys show the PN gaining more votes than the PL. Based on shifts between parties and losses to abstention the MaltaToday survey shows the PN gaining 6,239 votes over 2013. Based solely on shifts between parties the In- dependent survey shows the PN gain- ing 5,485 votes over 2013. On the other hand based on shifts between parties and losses to abstention the Torca sur- vey shows the PN losing 11,621 votes and the PL 11,580 votes. In the meantime a survey published by the Sunday Times confirmed findings in MaltaToday and the Independent surveys, showing a relative majority of respondents who see corruption as be- ing the most important issue that will determine how they will vote in the gen- eral election of June 3. Respondents in the Sunday Times sur- vey were also asked whether they were satisfied with the way the Prime Minis- ter had handled the corruption allega- tions. 46% claimed they were not so satisfied or not satisfied at all, while 41% claimed that they were either very satisfied or fairly satisfied. 13% did not express an opinion. 79% of respondents claimed to be either very satisfied or fairly satis- fied with the economic situation of the country, while 21% claimed to be not so satisfied or not satisfied at all. News www.maltatoday.com.mt FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY Trust ratings (after eliminating don't knows) Joseph Muscat Simon Busuttil None Independent 48.9 37.8 13.3 MaltaToday 47 42 11 Torca 53.2 40.1 6.7 PL PN/PD AD Not Voting No Answer Independent 40.1 30.5 0.3 3.2 25.4 MaltaToday 40.2 36.6 0.6 2.4 20.2 Torca 41.3 31.2 1.7 5.4 20.5 PL to PN PN to PL Abstention PN Abstention PL MaltaToday 5.7 1.9 0.6 1.5 Independent 7.7 5.6 - - Torca 1.6 3.4 7.4 8 Net gain/losses for PN when losses to abstention are also included PN gains Labour losses MaltaToday +6239 -9549 Independent +5485 -5485 Torca -11621 -11580 40.2 36.6 0.6 2.4 20.2 MaltaToday 47 42 11 5.7 1.9 0.6 1.5 MaltaToday +6239 -9549 Surveys agree on PL vote, disagree on PN's