Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1133773
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 23 JUNE 2019 ANALYSIS How Delia has survived by calling the rebels' bluff A month after the disastrous European elections Adrian Delia has refused to stand aside and nobody dared challenge him for the leadership or initiate procedures to remove him. Does this mean he will stay on to lead the party to the next general election? ADRIAN Delia has predictably exploit- ed the greatest weakness of his internal adversaries: the absence of a credible rival to challenge him, take his place and reunite the party. For only a leader who wins a contest among party mem- bers can enjoy the same legitimacy which Delia still enjoys as the choice of party members in a democratic contest made two years ago. The alternative for rebel MPs could be that of electing a new Opposition leader instead of Delia, who would re- main leader of the party. But such a course of action could end up reinforc- ing the perception of an internal 'elitist' coup by MPs to reverse the choice of party members. It would be a recipe for internal chaos, for which rebel MPs would be inevita- bly blamed and probably punished in the next general election. Moreover, it is extremely unlikely for a Nationalist MP to challenge Delia for the leader- ship of the parliamentary group, with- out actually becoming party leader. The only historical precedent for such a course of action was the refusal of a majority of Labour MPs in 1949 to ac- cept Dom Mintoff, who had defeated Boffa amongst party delegates as the newly-elected leader of the party, thus triggering a split. But while in 1949 Mintoff had earned the legitimacy of party delegates and eventually of voters to become Prime Minister in 1956, anyone elected Op- position leader in Delia's place would be perceived as the choice of MPs who failed to respect the vote of rank and file party members. Then again, even if MPs embark on the more torturous path of dethroning Delia through party structures by col- lecting 150 signatures from members of the General Council to call an extraor- dinary meeting, they risk taking the party in unchartered waters, especially if they proceed without proposing an alternative leader. For what if Delia is dethroned and nobody of substance is willing to take his place in such a dif- ficult moment for the party? It is no secret that potential future leaders like Roberta Metsola and Clau- dio Grech are wary of contesting now. Anyone with serious aspirations to become Prime Minister would rather get elected after the next general elec- tion than in the middle of this legisla- ture, following a divisive contest which could well leave the party even weaker than it is now. Moreover anyone elect- ed in these circumstances would be faced by one pertinent question: how will rank and file Nationalists who still support Delia react to the election of a new leader? Neither can they exclude Delia pre- senting his name to party councillors and members and quashing the chal- lenge as Jeremy Corbyn did in the UK in 2016 after losing the support of most Labour MPs. Delia's position is indeed reminiscent of Alfred Sant's position in 2003. Unlike Delia, Sant had an- nounced that he would resign after los- ing the general election, only to change his mind a few weeks later. The end result was the humiliation of the two lightweight challengers: John Attard Montalto and Anglu Farrugia, and Sant's confirmation as the Labour leader who went on to lead his party to a third consecutive electoral defeat in 2008. Why Delia avoids a confirmation vote By refusing to budge Delia has called the bluff of his adversaries, who fully know that with every day which passes, he reinforces the idea that he is here to stay until the next general election. Perhaps Delia's greatest weakness is his refusal to go to party councillors to seek a renewal of his mandate as suggested by former party leader Law- rence Gonzi. For if he does so and is confirmed as leader, such a vote would strengthen him and effectively kill the rebellion against him. Yet this in itself would beg the ques- tion: if Delia was elected by members why should his mandate be renewed by councillors? One alternative for Delia would therefore be to go directly to party members for confirmation in an internal plebiscite. But Delia may be wary of embarking on a treacher- ous course, which would give rebels a sense of purpose, which could unite them. One risk of any such vote is that even if Delia wins it, it could expose a deep rift in the party with a sizeable chunk voting for his removal. Delia's failure to elect Frank Psaila as MEP and the re- election of incumbent David Casa was a strong indication that a large segment of the Nationalist electorate shuns him. This mood was bound to be reflected to some extent in the more restricted co- horts of party councillors or members. Therefore, it is much safer for Delia to insist on the mandate given to him by party members two years ago. A lame duck leader? Yet even if Delia survives, his internal enemies may still erode his authority. Over the past weeks he has already lost a close ally, Pierre Portelli, who resigned from head of the PN's media after falling out with the anti-Delia faction, while another ally, Jean Pierre Debono, had to give up his bid to re- claim the seat he had relinquished to ensure Delia's entry to parliament, af- ter an initial vote to allocate him the seat of David Stellini was contested by the Gozitan branch of the party. If Delia harbours any hope of, at least, reducing the gap with Labour If Delia harbours any hope of, at least, reducing the gap with Labour in the next election, he desperately needs to assert his authority in the party and restore a semblance of unity "As I waited with other journalists the small talk between the people caught my ears. Discussions oscillated between friendly rivalry over football and saints to the more serious concerns they had about what was happening to the party they have always supported." KURT SANSONE (p15, right) JAMES DEBONO JAMES DEBONO