Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1275149
8 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 2 AUGUST 2020 INTERVIEW For some time now, there has been talk of a 'second wave' of COVID-19 cases. Prime Minis- ter Robert Abela had famously dismissed this notion, claim- ing that waves are found 'in the sea'. Have recent events proved him wrong? Is this the second wave already with us? I wouldn't say that we are in a 'second wave', no. Let me ex- plain: we are a small country. Because of the size of our popu- lation, and the prevalence of the disease, the graph here is not go- ing to be a straight line. It will not be the same as larger countries such as the USA or Germany, where there was a steep, steady upward curve. Here, it will be more like a number of 'bumps'. And by the look of things, we are in for a very bumpy ride. So rather than a 'wave', we ex- pect to have a series of 'clusters': for example, a batch of 22 cases one day; followed by another of 15; then a smaller group of seven cases; then another large cluster of 30, and so on. Now: as MAM, we have ac- knowledged that you have to strike a balance between keeping the economy going, and protect- ing public health. But where do you strike this balance? Our po- sition is that, when we re-opened the airport, we could have asked for swabbing tests to be carried out on passengers before depar- ture; and rather than promoting large mass events attracting rev- ellers, we should have promoted Malta as 'the safe island': where everybody is screened. This way, we could at least minimise the number of new cases. There will still always be a few, mind you. But it's the dif- ference between stubbing out a cigarette, and extinguishing a bonfire. If the numbers are big, it over- whelms your firefighting ca- pabilities. And what are our fighting capabilities? We have a system of tracking and tracing. You call 111; you get tested; if you're OK, fine; if not, you have to be isolated. But then, there's also contact tracing. Take the recent hotel party, for instance. If it was attended by 700 people, you have to also trace all the people they were in contact with. Multiplied by 10 – for argument's sake – and those 700 become 7,000. And right now, our swabbing capacity is around 1,000 a day… though Health Minister Fearne has now said it will be increased. So if a party attended by 700 can have such an effect… what's going to happen when we host parties attracting 20,000 or more? At the same time, however, government also argues that Malta's health system is already prepared to handle a resur- gence… just as it was when it came to successfully controlling the first outbreak in March. Are you suggesting, then, that we're not as well-prepared as we'd like to think? We are prepared, yes… but not if we do crazy things. We are prepared only insofar as the decisions we take are logical. It is one thing to allow events such as Mass to go ahead, with prop- er social distancing measures in place… because, yes, there's still a risk – there always is – but it's limited. The risk has been miti- gated by other factors. In the present circumstances, however, the Prime Minister has taken the attitude of 'business as usual'… as though COVID-19 is dead. But no: it is not dead. In other countries – including Italy, which has a reputation for being 'undisciplined' – you will not see one politician or civil society attending a meeting, or addressing a press conference, without wearing a mask. They accept that you can go out; but if you don't wear a mask, you will be fined. Here in Malta, we're doing the opposite. On one hand, govern- ment is giving the false impres- The Medical Association of Malta is threatening industrial action unless government bans all mass-gatherings, in the light of a recent upsurge in COVID-19 cases. But as MAM chairman Dr MARTIN BALZAN argues, there is more than just a few rave parties at stake Fools rush in where angels Raphael Vassallo rvassallo@mediatoday.com.mt