Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1354201
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 21 MARCH 2021 NEWS INTERNATIONALLY the re- sponse to the COVID-19 pan- demic has had a major political fallout, being singled out as a major factor in the defeat of US President Donald Trump, and foiling his attempts to focus the election campaign on the econ- omy. It has also contributed to the formation of a technocratic government led by economist Mario Draghi in Italy and the erosion of support for the Chris- tian Democrats in Germany, who suffered bruising defeats in key regional elections over growing concern on the coun- try's sluggish vaccination rate. While initially voters rallied behind governing parties in the face of the new threat, a year on, electorates all over the world have become more restless. But despite lockdowns and an on- slaught on public health servic- es, strong populist leaders like Boris Johnson and the Dutch liberal Mark Rutte have retained their poll leads. How will these dynamics play out in Malta in a scenario where Robert Abela has so far retained a strong but diminished poll lead? 1. A June election is now defi- nitely out of the question The arrival of a third wave trig- gered by more infective variants already known in January, but whose impact was apparently downplayed in Malta's pan- demic strategy, has dispelled speculation of an early election in June. In calling an early elec- tion Robert Abela would have banked on the feel-good factor in the country resulting from a successful vaccine roll-out and the achievement of herd immu- nity. In January Abela predicted that the economy would start its recovery in March returning to "business as usual" by May. But while the vaccine roll-out has been largely successful, the spike in cases and increased pressures on the health system, as a result of the government's refusal to introduce restrictions immediately after Christmas, have derailed Abela's recovery plans. With a June election out of the question, it remains to be seen whether Abela will call the election immediately after the achievement of herd immunity in autumn or whether he will do so after presenting a post-recov- ery budget. That will also depend on the state of public finances, aggra- vated by what is expected to be a difficult summer for the tourism sector. This increases the likeli- hood of an election in early 2022 when the pandemic will proba- bly be history. 2. Robert Abela has lost his sheen, as Grech has emerged stronger. But the opposition risks sounding divisive A year ago the government's robust pandemic response, consisting of an efficient test- ing, contact-tracing system and wage supplements for the worst-hit sectors, earned Abela a polling boost over a divided opposition then led by Adri- an Delia. But reality has now caught up with Abela's optimis- tic predictions, made in January despite fully knowing about the dangers of new variants, which led other governments like Ger- many's to impose a lockdown at that stage. One of Abela's shortcomings exposed in the past weeks was his refusal to acknowledge mistakes and say sorry. This may well have cre- As the number of cases soared and Malta was forced into another quasi- lockdown, dispelling the PM's own optimistic forecasts in January, the pandemic has emerged as the primary concern of 81% of the Maltese people. How will this impact on the political dynamics in Malta's own election year? asks James Debono How COVID will