Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1354201
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 21 MARCH 2021 NEWS ated a chasm between the PM and segments of the electorate, especially those who have lost their beloved ones. Moreover Abela's refusal to call a public health emergency, despite cases being much higher than when a similar emergency was called a year ago, also sug- gests that he is wary of experts' advice and wants to have the final say on the imposition and lifting of restrictions. Still, Grech is walking on a tightrope in his focused criti- cism of Abela's failures in man- aging the pandemic. This is be- cause in times of a health crisis, the least thing people want to hear is divisive political bicker- ing. That explains why Abela is harping on 'Team Malta' and the need for unity. It also ex- plains why Grech is wary of any criticism of public health super- intendent Charmaine Gauci. So far, the PN leader is striking a balance, but loose canons on his own side may well undermine his strategy. 3. Abela may toy again with mi- gration football as he already did last year to take the focus away from his pandemic blues Abela, who has already re- sorted to the "Malta is full-up" mantra in a bid to expose the Opposition as weak on migra- tion, may find it hard to resist exploiting an increase in boat arrivals in Spring. While con- cern on migration is now at an all-time low in MaltaToday's concerns survey, overtaken not just by COVID-19 but also by corruption and construction, past experience shows that po- litical leaders can easily manu- facture consent build around a belligerent nationalism directed at outside threats and a justified criticism of the lack of a bur- den-sharing EU mechanism. This was already the case last year when Abela's popularity was boosted by tough talk on this issue, even if the EU even- tually called his bluff by refusing to negotiate under duress as mi- grants were held on the Captain Morgan ferry boats. A show- down with the EU over migra- tion may well be used by Abela once again to create a powerful distraction and to take the focus away from COVID. Yet such a strategy may be risky, especially if the European Commission once again rebuffs Abela. Moreover, the Opposi- tion could defuse any fallout by supporting Abela's stance, at the risk of further legitimizing xen- ophobia. Much depends on how far Abela will go to test the Op- position's resolve on this highly charged and potentially divisive issue. Abela has to be extra-care- ful not to nourish anti-foreigner sentiments which backfire on his post-COVID recovery plans, because they hinge on the con- tribution of lowly-paid foreign workers. 4. The economic cost of COVID weighs on the next budget and the government's ability to rely on its power of incumbency to dispense goodies on the eve of the election Surely one of the greatest mer- its of the Labour administra- tion is that its past economic achievements, which included a reduction in the national debt and the accumulation of a kitty, enabled Abela to sail through the stormy waters of the pan- demic. But money diverted to wage supplements and to as- sist recovery could penalise the government's ability to use pork-barrel generosity to boost its support before the election. In its rush to restore normal- ity the government could end up yielding to pressures by the developers' lobby, exacerbating conflicts in local communities which transcend partisan di- vides. But the electorate's ex- pectations may be lower this time around and if Abela gets a trust boost by simply showing an ability to navigate the coun- try in these difficult times. In this way the electorate will ask: who has the steady hand in steering the country to nor- mality? The still untested Op- position which has largely failed to renew itself or the 'devil we know' who has delivered growth and prosperity in the past? 5. A successful vaccine roll- out, herd immunity by Septem- ber and an explosion of feel- good optimism, could restore Abela's fortunes If all goes well, an upbeat na- tional mood after the achieve- ment of herd immunity will obscure Abela's misjudgements during the past weeks, perhaps becoming forgotten amidst a collective desire to reclaim nor- mality and exorcize memories of the pandemic. The contrast between vaccine shortages in other EU coun- tries and a successful roll-out in Malta will highlight the govern- ment's achievement in this area, especially if Malta emerges as one of the first countries in Eu- rope to achieve herd immunity. The post-pandemic feel-good factor could trigger a surge in consumption, boosted by the vouchers for which the govern- ment had allocated €40 million in the last budget. Still, the rush to normality can also exacer- bate social inequalities, with low-income households earn- ing a livelihood in negatively impacted sectors like tourism, having accumulated fewer sav- ings during the pandemic, than higher-income groups who will compensate for the lost months by spending more. will weigh on next election