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12 ANALYSIS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 17 SEPTEMBER 2023 Ursula's SOTEU: leading in testing times In her State of the Union (SOTEU) address Ursula von der Leyen was sober, calibrated and level-headed. But as her administration comes to its end, did she rise to the occasion by offering leadership in testing times marked by apocalyptical fires, f loods and war or is she trapped in a euro-bubble? JAMES DEBONO reports. URSULA von der Leyen's sur- prise appointment as presi- dent of the European Commis- sion five years ago came as the result of a political agreement between French President Em- manuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Her appointment left the European People's Party lead candidate and fellow German Manfred Weber on the way- side. Von der Leyen started her term by reaching out to lib- erals, socialists and greens in a bid to consolidate a pro-Eu- rope working majority in the European parliament. But after showing compe- tence in leading the European Commission through a global pandemic followed by a war, standing tall in confronting Russian aggression and leaving an ambitious 'green new deal' as her legacy, she is now poised to present herself as her par- ty's lead candidate, thus en- dowing her second term with democratic legitimacy. This inevitably turned the spotlight on her 'state of the union' speech, the last of this legislature which is widely seen as her launch pad for a second term. But to secure this candidacy she has now to contend with apprehension in her own political family and consolidate her position among conservatives without losing sight of potential allies and king makers. This explains the balancing act in a speech which empha- sised the concerns of the cen- tre right, but which also pan- dered to Emmanuel Macron's assertive stance in a trade dis- pute with China while throw- ing a couple of sops on social issues to the left. But is this political balancing act what is needed for Europe now? The political cost of inflation For as Europe itself grap- ples with extreme weather and making action on climate change more urgent than ev- er, electorates are increasingly nervous over inflation which erodes their living standards. This is a scenario which risks creating a rift between eco- nomic and urgent ecological considerations. But curiously in her speech Von der Leyen made only four references to inflation while making 16 references to com- petitiveness in an indication that her priority is to boost the performance of the Europe- an economy in the hope that wealth would trickle down- wards. Moreover, with another term in mind, she was careful not to ruffle too many feathers, tam- pering her commitment for the EU's ambitious 'green new deal' which a greater focus on meeting the needs of agribusi- ness, industry and "restoring competitiveness". This comes amidst unease in her own political family (the European People's Party) as evidenced by the opposition of a majority of centre right MEPs to new biodiversity rules impacting on agribusi- ness which were championed by the commission led by Von der Leyen. To get the political legitima- cy for another term in office, Von der Leyen needs the en- dorsement of the EPP as its lead candidate in next June's elections. In its reaction to the speech, the EPP welcomed Von der Leyen's emphasis on compet- itiveness, the investigation of Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles, her emphasis on re- ducing bureaucracy for SMEs and protecting "farmers" as well as her commitments on migration, enlargement and a European Defence Union. But she also needs to reach out to liberals, socialists and greens to win wider support both in the European parlia- ment and among national gov- ernments. This may become trickier as EPP member parties flirt with more conservative forces in countries like Italy, Spain and Sweden - an approach re- portedly favoured by Manfred Weber who wants closer links with Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia whom he credits for moving closer to the political centre. A speech in a bubble? In the context of looming MEP elections, "a careful- ly worded State of the Union address, aiming to please the vast majority, was only to be expected", lawyer and former Labour deputy mayor Desiree Attard notes. But "despite her best efforts, however, President von der Leyen's speech felt far too en- closed in the Euro-bubble to truly impact citizens across the EU". Former prime minister and present Labour MEP Alfred Sant describes her address as "a good, competent speech that touched practically all policy areas her Commission has been dealing with these past years". But she also gave the impression of proposing more of the same. "In so doing, she might have played too much to Brussels decision makers and affiliated groupings," Sant says. He also warns of the risk that in the next months the commission will be considered as a "care- taker" noting that prominent commission members are al- ready moving on to national politics. Of note is the departure of socialist Frans Timmermans who spearheaded the climate change drive as vice presi- dent of the commission, who moved back to Dutch politics as the leader of a red-green al- liance. Nationalist MP Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici is more posi- tive in his assessment noting Von der Leyen's assertive po- sition in making Vladimir Pu- tin regime's accountable for war crimes. He also praises her focused approach in first charting out past accomplishments and then presenting a clear pro- gramme for her remaining 300 days in office. This, he adds, shows that Von der Leyen is not a "lame duck" and remains "abreast with the times". Mifsud Bonnici adds that Von der Leyen adopted a "fac- tual approach" that contrasts with populism which thrives on misinformation. Independent candidate Ar- nold Cassola concurs that the speech was largely a "positive