Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1509248
17 NEWS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 8 OCTOBER 2023 working lives and possibly raising children, are the most likely not to vote in a forth- coming general election. Within this cate- gory, a relative majority of 45.1% will not vote. A relative majority of those aged between 16 and 35 (39.1%) are also intent on not voting. Non-voters also constitute a relative ma- jority of tertiary (36.2%) and post-second- ary educated voters (36.8%). Regionally, the largest percentage of non-voters is found in the Labour lean- ing south eastern district, which includes towns like Biżebbuġa, Marsaskala and Że- jtun. In this region, 36.4% of voters say they will not vote, outnumbering Labour voters by more than three points. This phenomenon is particularly worry- ing for the Labour Party due to the major inroads it had made in both national and local elections in south-eastern towns and districts. But significantly, support for the PN in this region remains below the 25% mark in another sign of its failure to make inroads in Labour leaning districts. The same pattern is repeated in the Southern Harbour region, which includes Cottonera, where only 22% intend voting for the PN while 32% are intent on not vot- ing. This is a clear indication that within its traditional strongholds Labour is losing substantially more to abstention than to the PN. PN winning in 4 of 6 regions But the PN has managed to restore its historical majority in more competitive or traditionally PN leaning regions. The survey shows Labour leading the PN only in the South-Eastern and South- ern Harbour regions, while the PN leads in Gozo, the Northern, Northern Harbour and the Western regions. The closest gap between the parties is in the Western region where the PN leads the PL by just 3 points and the largest gap being in the Northern region where the Opposi- tion party leads by 18 points. In the North Harbour region, which in- cludes major urban centres like Sliema, Qormi and Birkirkara, the PN is leading by nine points. But in this district a substan- tial 31% are intent on not voting. In Gozo, the only region which coincides with an electoral district and one where La- bour had made massive inroads in the past three general elections, the PN is now lead- ing by eight points. PL leads among women, PN among men The survey shows Labour leading the PN by less than a percentage point among women while trailing the PN by nearly 4 points among men. This discrepancy re- flects the higher percentage of non-voters among males. While 27% of women are intent on not voting, abstention increases to nearly 35% among men. This is another indication that Labour underperforms in those categories with a higher abstention rate. A breakdown by education, shows that the PL still leads the PN among all catego- ries except those with a tertiary education. In the latter category where 36.2% are in- tent on not voting only 19% would vote La- bour while 36% will vote PN. The PL enjoys a slim lead of less than three points among secondary and post-second- ary educated voters and a more substantial 15-point lead among those with a primary level of education. The latter category also has the smallest percentage of respondents who intend not voting (10.5%). Past surveys A survey published by The Sunday Times of Malta in July that also uses the impu- tation method adopted by MaltaToday's October survey had put Labour ahead by seven points. MaltaToday's July survey conducted us- ing the old method whereby no voting in- tention was attributed to undecided voters, the PN was leading by less than a percent- age point. Methodology The survey was carried out between 25 September 2023 and 4 October 2023 for which 657 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer a few of the questions for which they are treated as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and linear regression was used to replace the missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted. The margin of error for this result 3.8% for a confidence interval of 95%. PL voters choose to abstain Voting intentions by age Voting intentions by education Voting intentions by gender Voting intentions by region General election: Valid votes Valid votes cast as a percentage of all eligible voters 1947 75% 1950 73.4% 1951 74.1% 1953 79.8% 1955 80.8% 1962 90.2% 1966 88.8% 1971 92.5% 1976 94.4% 1981 94.1% 1987 95.5% 1992 95.3% 1996 95.3% 1998 94.1% 2003 94.7% 2008 92.2% 2013 91.8% 2017 90.9% 2022 83.2% Source: Malta Elections - UOM and Electoral Commission