Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1509248
19 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 8 OCTOBER 2023 SURVEY Still the situation is far from rosy for Abela who is distrusted by a substantial 27% of Labour voters in 2022, which is just two points lower than the percent- age of Labour voters who intend not voting in a forthcoming general elec- tion. In contrast the percentage of PN vot- ers who do not trust Grech (50%) is substantially higher than the 14% of PN voters who will not be voting in a forth- coming general election. This suggests that while a significant number of respondents would still vote PN despite their distrust of Grech, La- bour voters who have lost their trust in the party leader are also more likely not to vote in an election. Absolute majority of under 50s trust neither The survey also shows that 51.2% of both 16- to 35-year-olds and 36- to 50-year-olds trust neither Abela nor Grech. A relative majority of 51- to 65-year- olds (41%) also trusts none of the two leaders. Grech registers his worst trust rating among those aged between 36 and 50, where he is only trusted by 11.8%. In this particular age group Abela leads Grech by a substantial 25 points. Abela's lowest trust rating is among those aged between 16 and 35, where he clocks 33.2%, nearly 18 points in front of Grech, who is trusted by 15.7%. Both Grech and Abela enjoy their high- est trust rating among over 65-year-olds where the percentage of respondents who trust neither of the two leaders drops to 23%. In this category Abela leads Grech by 15 points. Agnostics a majority in four regions A relative majority of respondents in four regions, namely the Northern Har- bour (45%), the Western region (38%), the Northern region (43%) and Gozo (43%), trust neither of the two leaders. Significantly the percentage of re- spondents who trust neither leader is highest in Nationalist leaning regions and lower in Labour leaning ones. Abela enjoys a lead over Grech in all six regions but only registers an abso- lute majority in the South-Eastern re- gion where 50.7% trust Abela. Grech's worst performance is in the south east with only 11.5% of voters trusting him. Abela also enjoys a strong lead over Grech in the Southern Harbour region where 48% trust the Prime Minister and only 14% trust the Opposition leader. Distrust highest among the more educated The survey suggests that distrust in the current crop of political leaders is strongest among those with a higher level of education. In fact, while on- ly 35% of those with a secondary level of education distrust both leaders, the percentage increases to 51% among those with a post-secondary level of ed- ucation and to 52% among those with a university level of education. Abela leads Grech among voters of all levels of education but the gap increases to a substantial 23 points among those with a secondary level of education. Grech but relative majority trust none Trust barometer by age Trust barometer by education Trust barometer by gender Trust barometer by region What are we changing in our survey? As we enter a fresh political cycle in anticipation of the upcoming mid-term local and European elections scheduled for next June, MaltaToday is refining its polling methodology while also improving the presentation of results. Our aim remains steadfast: to furnish our readers with a clearer understanding of current political dynamics while steadfastly upholding accuracy and reliability. In previous surveys, we refrained from predicting the voting behaviour of those respondents who remained undecided. However, we are now adopting a new methodology that allows us to forecast how these respondents might cast their votes based on their responses to other questions. Our survey framework will still be based on stratified random sampling, accounting for factors such as region, age, and gender to closely mirror the demographics of Malta. However, we are introducing logistic and linear regression techniques to provide a calculated estimation for missing data points stemming from non-responses. To facilitate this change, we have expanded our questionnaire to include a broader range of political and demographic questions. This includes the Government Performance Barometer and questions probing the direction of the country and personal financial outlook, in addition to assessments of trust in political leaders and voting intentions. The adoption of the imputation method aligns with established practices both locally and internationally. This approach offers our readers a comprehensive electoral snapshot, showcasing the percentage of each party's support among those who are intent on voting in a general election. Recognising the significance of non-voters in our political landscape, we will also provide readers with a segmented breakdown of this category, taking into account demographic variables such as age, education and region. Over the past two decades, MaltaToday's surveys have consistently and accurately predicted the outcomes of general elections since 2008, along with various other electoral events such as MEP elections. We take pride in our pioneering role in regularly disseminating opinion polls, setting a benchmark for other media outlets to follow. MaltaToday remains unwavering in its commitment to transparency and accountability. We will continue refining our methodology to offer a more nuanced reflection of political trends.