Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1511356
JAMES DEBONO OPPOSITION leader Bernard Grech has seen his trust rating improve from a dismal 20% to a more respectable 24%, compared to last month's MaltaToday survey. But despite a marginal one-point drop in his trust rating, Prime Minister Robert Ab- ela still enjoys a substantial 15-point lead over Grech. Grech's gains mainly correspond to a 2.5-point drop among respondents who trust neither political leader. But despite this marginal decrease, nearly four in 10 re- spondents do not trust either leader. Abela scores higher among pensioners In the budget aftermath the survey also shows a generational divide, with Robert Abela strengthening his position among pensioners and Grech consolidating his position among those under 50. In a reflection of the positive reception of the budget among pensioners, Abela has seen his trust rating increase by 5 points from 46% to 51% among those over 65. In contrast Grech gains only a point in this category. But Grech has registered gains among those aged 36-50, with his trust rating in- creasing from 12% to 20%. In contrast, Ab- ela's trust rating in this age group – which is more likely to include respondents with dependent children who are at the peak of their career – has decreased from 37% to 31%. Abela's trust rating has also decreased by 4 points among younger respondents. 4 in 10 PN voters' distrust Grech Moreover, in a sign that Bernard Grech's leadership remains on shaky ground, a stag- gering 42% (down from 43% last month) of PN voters in the 2022 general election, trust neither of the two political leaders. Even among respondents who currently intend voting PN, a substantial 37% trust neither Grech nor Abela. Only 46% of PN voters in 2022 trust their party leader more than Abela. Grech's poor trust rating suggests that he remains his party's weakest link in contrast to Abela who enjoys a higher level of trust among his party's voters (66%). And while Grech makes some inroads among PL voters in 2022, 8% of which trust him more than the Prime Minister, an even higher percentage of PN voters (13%) trust Abela more than Grech. This suggests that Grech is not only failing to make any significant inroads among La- bour voters but that Abela enjoys a greater appeal among voters of the opposite party than Grech does. Moreover, Grech remains less trust- ed than Abela in the crucial category of non-voters. In this strategic category, both leaders have registered an increase in their trust rating over last month's figures. While Ab- ela's trust rating has increased by 8 points from 16% last month to 24% now, Grech's trust rating has increased by 5 points to reach 10%. This could reflect the greater exposure of both leaders in hard hitting speeches in parliament delivered in the past week. Still, despite retaining a substantial lead over Grech, the situation is far from rosy for Abela, who is still distrusted by a sub- stantial 27% of Labour voters in 2022, as was the case last month. Majority of young and tertiary educated distrust both leaders The survey also shows that 53.4% of 16- 35 year-olds and 49.2% of those aged 36-50 trust neither Abela nor Grech. But the percentage of respondents who trust neither leader falls to 37% among the 51-65 group and just 16% among over 65-year-olds. The survey suggests that distrust in the current crop of political leaders is strongest among those with a higher level of educa- tion. In fact among those with a tertiary ed- ucation 51% trust neither of the two lead- ers. Abela leads Grech, among voters of all levels of education but the gap increases from just 3 points among the tertiary ed- ucated to a substantial 31 points among those with a primary level of education, a category mostly composed of pensioners. Trust boost for Abela in Gozo A relative majority of respondents in three regions, namely the Northern Har- bour (38%), the Western region (47%), the Northern region (44%), trust neither of the two leaders. Abela enjoys a lead over Grech in all six regions. But his level of trust varies from just 32% in the north harbour region to 45% in Gozo. Significantly in Gozo, Abela enjoys a sub- stantial 24-point lead over Grech. Com- pared to last month Abela has seen his trust rating in Gozo increase by 6 points. Surprisingly Grech's worst performance is in the traditionally leaning northern dis- trict where he enjoys the trust of only 18% of respondents. 16 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 12 NOVEMBER 2023 SURVEY Abela leads by 15 points, Grech gains four points TRUST BAROMETER 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 24.1% 30% 3.8% 42.1% 28.3% 28.9% 6.5% 36.4% 34.7% 29.7% 3.8% 31.9% 47.9% 37% 1.7% 13.4% PL PN Other Will not vote Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 28.5% 18.2% 53.4% 30.8% 20% 49.2% 40% 22.8% 37.1% 51.5% 32.6% 15.9% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Trust Barometer Profile of Non-voters Age Gender Regions Education 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 42.1% 36.4% 31.9% 12.8% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 All Voters The survey was carried out was carried between 1st November 2023 and 9th November 2023 for which 637 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, PL 49.0% Other 5.6% PN 45.4% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 PL 2022 PN 2022 No vote 2022 61.1% 9.9% 2.9% 26.1% 8% 66.8% 1.2% 24% 18.6% 24.5% 0.6% 56.2% PL PN Other Will not vote Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 PL 2022 PN 2022 No vote 2022 65.9% 7.6% 26.6% 12.5% 45.9% 41.6% 15.9% 18.2% 79.6% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 All Voters Polling and market research since 2002 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 maltatoday SURVEY Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Northern N. Harbour S. Eastern S. Harbour Western Gozo PL PN Other Will not vote Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 5 0% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Northern N. Harbour S. Eastern S. Harbour Western Gozo 37.5% 18.4% 44.1% 32.3% 29.3% 38.3% 42.8% 22.5% 34.8% 43.5% 24% 32.6% 32.2% 20.4% 47.4% 45.5% 22.1% 42.6% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Trust Barometer Profile of Non-voters Age Gender Regions Education 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 28.8% 29% 33.2% 30.2% 34.4% 27.2% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 All Voters 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 24.1% 30% 3.8% 42.1% 28.3% 28.9% 6.5% 36.4% 34.7% 29.7% 3.8% 31.9% 47.9% 37% 1.7% 13.4% PL PN Other Will not vote Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 28.5% 18.2% 53.4% 30.8% 20% 49.2% 40% 22.8% 37.1% 51.5% 32.6% 15.9% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None Trust Barometer Profile of Non-voters Age Gender Regions Education 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 42.1% 36.4% 31.9% Robert Abela Bernard Grech None 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 38 23.6 38.4 All Voters Trust barometer by age Trust barometer by 2022 vote Trust barometer by region