Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1513668
7 Looking back 2023 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 24 DECEMBER 2023 non-voter than €4,000 (23%). This also suggests that absten- tion is stronger in the wide range of people earning between €1,001 and €4,000 but is significantly lower among high-income earn- ers and low-income earners. Malaise in the West and the Southeast The analysis also shows that ab- stention is slightly higher in the Labour leaning Southeastern re- gion which includes electoral dis- tricts where the PL made strong inroads since 2013, practically decimating the PN's presence. The higher abstention is the Southeast suggests trouble in La- bour's heartlands. In this region abstention reaches the 34% mark, just one point high- er than in the Western region, which includes PN leaning local- ities like Attard and Labour lean- ing ones like Zebbug. In contrast, abstention hovers between 28% and 30% in all the other regions. Inflation, foreigners are triggers for abstention A survey held in October showed that the cost of living is the top concern of current non-voters (36%) followed by the large num- ber of foreigners in Malta (30%), traffic (9%), construction (7%) and corruption (5%) . This largely mirrors the con- cerns of the general population, with the only difference being that concern on inflation is 10 points higher among non-voters. Concern on foreigners is also five points higher among non-voters while concern on corruption is slightly lower. This suggests that discontent- ment over inflation and concern on the growing presence of for- eigners, are the main triggers for abstention. Yet the squeeze of inflation may also change the op- tics of these voters, making them more likely to see government in a bad light whenever faced with al- legations of corruption and abuse of power. Surveys have also shown that non-voters are more likely to think that the country is going in the wrong direction. In November, 77% of non-voters thought the country was going in the wrong direction compared to 65% nationally. Non-voters are also more likely to give the government a negative rating. In the past three surveys non-voters have given the gov- ernment an average of 2.3 points out of 5, compared to a national average of 2.6 points. All this suggests that non-vot- ers are disenchanted and winning them back won't be easy. But the surveys also suggest that non-vot- ers are also swayed by the same issues impacting the rest of the population and therefore do not constitute an 'elite' group of vot- ers with their own niche concerns. This also makes it harder for third parties that fail to address bread and butter issues to make inroads in this category. It may well be the case that rath- er than being a potential pool of votes for existing third parties, non-voters are traditional vot- ers who are parking themselves in neutral territory until they are presented by a viable choice be- tween the two established parties. What we don't know While surveys indicate that non-voters are a heterogonous group, they offer no indication on whether 2022 Labour voters intent on not voting are tradition- al hard core PL supporters – and very unlikely to even consider vot- ing PN - or floaters, who may have given their vote to the PN in the past but are not yet convinced to do the same thing again. This underlines the risk for any PN strategy relying on a high ab- stention rate among Labour vot- ers. The fear of a PN victory may well push some of these voters, especially if they are hard core Labour supporters disillusioned by the current leadership, back to Labour's fold. Even if the PN fails to win these voters over it must ensure they do not feel threatened by a change in government. On the other hand, by trying to pitch for traditional Labour voters, the PN may well turn off switchers who were at- tracted to Muscat's Labour simply because it had moved to the polit- ical centre and in some instances to the centre-right. What the surveys indicate is that abstention is no longer restricted to educated middle class voters motivated by concerns on gov- ernance and the environment but is spreading among other catego- ries driven to abstention by falling living standards. In this sense, one reason why the PN remains behind may well be that a significant portion of the electorate still does not see the party as an alternative govern- ment which offers them a better life.