Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1517531
12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 17 MARCH 2024 ANALYSIS The big red blotch: Will the PN manage to dent For the second time in local election history, all towns and villages will be called at one go to elect their council representatives on 8 June. KURT SANSONE takes a look at the key battlegrounds in 2024. LOCAL elections five years ago delivered a map of Malta that was a big red blotch with a few sprin- kles of blue. The map showed an advancing sea of red as the Labour Party managed to overturn previous Nationalist Party majorities in Siggiewi, Valletta, Mosta, St Paul's Bay and San Gwann. With a 70-vote advantage, the PL won Siġġiewi for the first time since local elections started being held in the mid-1990s. The final result saw the Labour Party obtain absolute majorities in 47 localities, and a relative ma- jority in two councils. The Na- tionalist Party obtained an abso- lute majority in 17 localities and a relative majority in one other council. The final outcome saw 73% of all localities in which an election was held giving the PL a ma- jority of votes. No election was held in Mdina, where the num- ber of candidates contesting the election equalled the number of council seats and thus were elect- ed automatically. A population breakdown of the 2019 results shows that PL-ma- jority local governments are re- sponsible for 402,427 people liv- ing in their respective localities. PN-majority councils govern over 116,942 people. Four independent candidates managed to break the two-party stranglehold on councils by get- ting elected with strong results. In Għarb two independent can- didates got elected to hold the balance of power in a five-seat council. In the same locality, Labour elected two councillors while the PN only elected one. In voting terms, the PL won a rela- tive majority. In Żebbuġ (Gozo), one inde- pendent candidate scored an impressive 38.7% of first count votes to get elected and hold the balance of power on the council. The PN won a relative majority of votes. In Ħaż-Żebbuġ, an independ- ent candidate obtained 12.4% on the first count and got elected. This locality saw the PL obtain an absolute majority. With polling at a national level showing that the PL still enjoys very strong support, it is highly unlikely that the local election results in June will deliver any notable surprises. But voter behaviour in local elections may not entirely de- pend on traditional allegiances or national concerns. Local issues can also influence how people vote as does the personality of candidates contesting the elec- tion. Within this context, eyes will be cast on some key localities that are expected to be battlegrounds that will test the PN's ability to stage a credible fightback. Facts and figures: Local elections 2019 • Result all councils: PL 58% (150,514 votes), PN 39.8% (103,398), Others 2.2% (5,739) • Labour absolute majority (votes): 47 councils • Labour relative majority (votes): 2 councils • Nationalist absolute majority (votes): 17 councils • Nationalist relative majority (votes): 1 council • Elected independents: 4 • Population in PL-majority councils: 402,427 • Population in PN-majority councils: 116,942 Population data taken from Census 2021 Election data taken from Electoral Commission web page St Paul's Bay Population: 32,042 2019 votes: PL 50.1% (4,016), PN 42.8% (3,432), Other parties 4.4% (355), Ind. 2.6% (209) 2019 councillors: PL 7, PN 6 St Paul's Bay is a particular locality that has not only grown exponentially to become Malta's largest town but has historically registered the biggest abstention rate in local elections. The particular dynamics of this locality mean that none of the two major parties have a secure hold on voters. Since 2008, the council has swung back and forth between the PN and the PL. Five years ago, the PL just managed an absolute majority that translated into a 584-vote advantage over the Nationalist Party. Four years earlier, in 2015, the PN had obtained a relative majority, beating the PL by a mere 62 votes. The change in population means that St Paul's Bay keeps receiving people from diverse backgrounds making it difficult to assess how voters will behave. If history repeats itself, the cycle of swings should see the PN win back the council. But the PL will not go down without a fight and having convinced popular incumbent mayor Alfred Grima to reverse his decision not to contest, the party is well-placed to retain its majority. Mosta Population: 23,482 2019 votes: PL 51.4% (6,150), PN 48.6% (5,809) 2019 councillors: PL 7, PN 6 Mosta was one of the PL's biggest catches in 2019, have wrested control from the PN that had obtained an absolute majority back in 2015. Five years ago, the PL forged ahead with 341 votes more than the PN. The Opposition party will try to capitalise on the widespread disgruntlement in the community over the protracted roadworks around the parish church, including the paving of the main square, which dragged on for many months. However, both parties may yet be punished for having supported the uprooting of ficus trees alongside the church, a saga that ended with the council making an about turn after activists stopped the works. Although, it is not impossible for the PN to retake Mosta, it is far from a forgone conclusion since the PL is in no mood to concede ground without a fight. The big battlegrounds