Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1520224
13 SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 5 MAY 2024 JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt among those earning less than €1,000 a month. In this income bracket Labour loses 10 points over March amidst an eight-point increase in abstention in this cohort. The two main parties now enjoy the same level of support in this bracket. But Labour still enjoys a substantial 10-point lead among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000 and an even stronger 12-point lead among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000. But as has been the case in previous surveys, the PN is stronger among respondents earning between €2,001 and €3,000. In this mid-in- come bracket, the PN leads Labour by five points. The PN also enjoys a 20-point lead among those earning over €4,001 a month. Although abstention has increased in the lower end of the income scale, it remains highest among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000 amongst which 34% won't be voting. But while among those earning less than €1,000 abstention has increased by eight points, among those in the €3,001 to €4,000 bracket abstention has decreased by 16 points. PN leading among pensioners In another indication of a decreased turnout among older Labour voters, the PL has lost its ma- jority among pensioners. In this category, an increase in abstention of four points corresponds to a seven-point drop in sup- port for the PL. As a result of this the PN is now leading by six points. But the PL is leading the PN in all other age groups. Among those aged between 51 and 65, the PL leads the PN by 13 points. The PL also leads by 10 points among those aged between 16 and 35 and by seven points among those aged between 36 and 50. Abstention remains highest among 16 to 35 year olds. In this age group 44% will not be voting up from 34% last month. But in an indication that abstention in this category is penalising the PN, Labour has managed to increase its lead among younger voters from eight points last month to 10 points now. The PN has managed to narrow the gap among 36 to 50 year olds from 11% last month to 7%. A breakdown by education shows the PN leading for the first time among respondents with a prima- ry education where it enjoys a four-point lead. The PN's gains in this category correspond to a five- point decrease in turnout in this cohort. The PL still leads the PN by a substantial 11 points among secondary educated voters as was the case last month. It also leads by a staggering 19 points among post-secondary educated respondents. But the PN leads the PL by 10 points among the tertiary educated. Methodolgy The survey was carried out was carried between 15 April 2024 and 24 April 2024 for which 656 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer some of the questions for which they are treated as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and linear regression with predictive mean matching where applicable was used to replace certain missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted. The margin of error for this result 3.84% for a confidence interval of 95%. IN a clear indication that cur- rent non-voters are not as angry as one may think, 61.6% of this electorally strategic category rate government's performance be- tween 3 and 5. These include 16% who gave government a high rating of 4 or 5. Overall, the survey shows a favourable 2.6 rating among non-voters in an indication that this electorally strategic category still gives its thumbs up to La- bour's management of the coun- try. This suggests that people who intend not to vote in MEP elec- tions are not necessarily angry at government and may have other motivations for abstaining or are simply apathetic. Govertnment gets 2.9 out of 5 marks MaltaToday's Government Performance Barometer has pro- gressively shown the administra- tion improving its rating from 2.6 in December to 2.8 in February to 2.9 marks in March and April. Respondents are asked to give the administration led by Prime Minister Robert Abela a mark between 0 (very bad) and 5 (very good). The government is given a pass in all demographic groups except current PN voters (2.3), and PN voters in the 2022 election (2.3). But even in these categories the government's rating has im- proved by 0.4 marks over March figures. This suggests that the govern- ment's focus on inflation through an agreement with supermarkets and importers aimed at price stability, coupled with budgetary measures aimed at low income earners have paid off in restoring the feel-good factor. A breakdown by income shows the government getting its best marks among groups at the lower and upper ends of the spectrum. Among those earning between €3,001 and €4,000, the govern- ment has seen its rating increase from 2.9 in March to 3.2 in April. While among those earning between €1,001 and €2,000 a month the government's rating has increased from 2.9 to 3. But among those earning less than €1,000 a month, the govern- ment's rating has decreased from 3 to 2.9. Once again, the government gets its lowest rating among those earning between €2,001 and €3,000 (2.6) and among those earning over €4,000 (2.5). The government also gets a positive rating in all regions rang- ing between 2.8 in the Northern Region and 3.1 in the South Har- bour. In Gozo, the government is given a rating of 3, slightly down from 3.2 in March. The government's rating has remained stable at 2.9 in both the North Harbour and the South-Eastern regions. A breakdown by age shows that the government is given the low- est rating by 36 to 50 year olds (2.7) and the highest rating by over 65 year olds (3.1). The latter finding is particularly interesting because the survey also shows that over 65 year olds were the only age bracket where the PN is scoring a majority. Government Performance Barometer Non-voters give thumbs up to government disproportionately penalising Labour PL 50.7% PN 44.2% Education 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 5 0.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Primary Secondary Post-secondary Tertiary 39.6% 43.1% 0.7% 16.6% 39% 27.9% 2.8% 30.3% 41.4% 22.5% 3% 33.1% 25.9% 35.6% 7.3% 31.3% PL PN Other Will not vote Profile of Non-voters Education 50% 45% 40% 35% All Voters 5 May 2024 How do you rate government's performance? 2.9 March 2024 Voting intentions by gender Voting intentions by education How do you rate government's performance?