Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1520224
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 5 MAY 2024 SURVEY JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Metsola leads Agius Saliba EU parliament President and PN candidate Roberta Metsola is in pole position in the race for Malta's six seats in the EU parliament. She is followed at a distance by Labour candidate and MEP incumbent Alex Agi- us Saliba. While 16% declared their in- tention to vote for the PN's front runner, 8% intend to vote for Agius Saliba. The two front runners are the only two candidates on both sides to score above 2%. This means that the results of all the other candidates fall with- in the survey's margin of error and therefore should be treat- ed with caution. Moreover, 50% of Maltese voters still have to make up their mind on which candidate they intend voting for in next month's MEP election. The indecision is even greater among current Labour voters; 60% of which are still undecid- ed which candidate should get their number one vote. The higher indecision among Labour voters reflects the ab- sence of any incumbent on the list except for Agius Saliba. But it could also be an indication that some Labour voters were still holding back their vote, pending a decision by the par- ty on a possible candidature by former party leader Joseph Muscat. The survey was conducted to- wards the end of April before nominations opened. The race within the PN A breakdown by party al- legiance shows that 46% of current PN voters are already committed to give Roberta Metsola their first preference. She is followed by Peter Agius at 2.5% with other candidates, including incumbent MEP Da- vid Casa and veteran MP David Agius, trailing at less than 1%. But David Casa is set to in- herit most votes from Metso- la. When Metsola voters were asked who they intend to give their second preference, 33% said they would opt for Casa while 15% opted for Peter Agi- us. This suggests that if the PN wins three seats, Casa and Pe- ter Agius are the most likely to get elected alongside Met- sola. But if the PN fails in its target and elects two seats, Ca- sa could outpace Agius once Metsola's second preferences are distributed. But with 43% of PN voters still undecided, the race for the PN's second and potential third seat remains wide open. The race within Labour The race among current La- bour voters is even tighter. While incumbent Alex Agius Saliba is the undisputed front runner with the support of 20% of current Labour voters, the race for Labour's other seats remains wide open. In terms of first preference votes, Steve Ellul, a financial analyst and former CEO of Project Green, is in second place with the support of 5% of current Labour voters followed by economist Clint Azzopardi Flores at 2.6%. But lawyer Daniel Attard is attracting the largest number of second preferences from Agius Saliba (22%) followed by Azzopardi Flores at 13% and Steve Ellul at 10%. Also, up for grabs are the 2.4% of Labour voters who still intend giving their first prefer- ence to Joseph Muscat in a sur- vey held just before nomina- tions were officially presented. But as things stand it is clear that if Labour manages to win four seats Ellul, Attard and Azzopardi Flores are the most likely to join incumbent Agius Saliba in Brussels. However, if Labour were to lose a seat, the survey suggests a very tight race between the three male new comers. Labour risks all male representation The survey also suggests a strong possibility of an all- male representation for the PL. The survey shows Clau- dette Abela Baldacchino and Marija Sara Vella Gafa making no substantial inroads in a race dominated by male candidates. Even in the PN, apart from front runner Metsola, none of the other female candidates have gained traction among voters. Cassola and Lowell lead third party pack The survey shows that Nor- man Lowell, a white suprem- acist and self-avowed 'racial- ist', is the most popular third party candidate even if he only attracts 1% of first preference votes. Lowell is just ahead of Arnold Cassola who scores 0.9%. AD candidates Ralph Cas- sar (0.5%) and Sandra Gauci (0.1%) are attracting the sup- port of 0.6% together. No oth- er third party candidate was mentioned by respondents. This suggests that a signifi- cant portion of the 5% of vot- ers currently opting for a third party are still undecided for which candidate they intend voting for. The survey was held before the submission of nominations of candidates standing for MEP elections which includ- ed 13 independents and nine third party candidates. This means that respondents were not aware that some of these candidates were even *Total does not add to hundred percent since candidates falling below one percent are not listed