Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1520224
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 5 MAY 2024 SURVEY Saliba for top spot standing. The survey does not indi- cate any substantial amount of cross party voting except for 2% of Metsola voters who in- tend giving their second pref- erence to Labour candidate Alex Agius Saliba while 1% in- tend giving their second pref- erence to Arnold Cassola. Only 0.5% of Agius Saliba voters mentioned Norman Lowell as their second prefer- ence choice. Metsola strongest in Gozo A breakdown by region shows that Agius Saliba is strongest in the South-Eastern region (11%), while Metso- la is strongest in Gozo (20%) and the North Harbour region (18%). Labour's Thomas Bajada is attracting 5% of preferences in Gozo from where he hails. Bajada emerges as the third preferred candidate in Gozo after Metsola (20%) and Agi- us Saliba (7%). However, he makes no inroads in the other regions. Metsola leads Agius Saliba in all regions except the South Harbour, where the two candi- dates are neck and neck. Labour candidate Steve El- lul is also strongest in the South-Eastern region (4.8%). Norman Lowell scores his best result in the Northern re- gion (2.4%) which includes St Paul's Bay and in the Western region (2.3%). Green politician Ralph Cas- sar, a former local councillor in Attard, also gets his best result (1.6%) in the Western region. A breakdown by gender does not suggest major differences in the choices made by female and male voters. While Metsola is chosen by 16.5% of female and 16% of male voters, Agius Saliba is slightly more preferred by males (9%) than females (7%). Both Metsola and Agius Sal- iba are strongest among pen- sioners. Within this age group 24% opt for Metsola while 10% for Agius Saliba. But the higher support for the two front runners in this age group simply reflects the higher number of undecided in the other age groups, par- ticularly those aged between 16 to 35 amongst which 60% are undecided. In the 16 to 35 year olds, only 7% say they will be voting Met- sola while 4% will be voting for Agius Saliba. Lowell is strongest among 36 to 50 year olds (3%) while Ralph Cassar get his best re- sult (2%) among 16 to 35 year olds. Methodolgy The survey was carried out was carried between 15 April 2024 and 24 April 2024 for which 656 people opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, gender and age was used. A fraction of those who opted to complete the survey chose not to answer some of the questions for which they are treated as missing values. Missing values analysis was then carried to determine the type of technique to replace the values. A combination of logistic and linear regression with predictive mean matching where applicable was used to replace certain missing values completing and enlarging the sample set from which the final results were extracted. The margin of error for this result 3.84% for a confidence interval of 95%. Second preference of Metsola voters First preference among current Labour voters First preference among current Nationalist voters Second preference of Agius Saliba voters