Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1520224
12 SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 5 MAY 2024 CONTINUED FROM PAGE 11 The survey results provide a snapshot of the electorate tak- en in the last two weeks in April before the formal start of the parties' campaigns and a tumul- tuous week dominated by the po- litical fallout from the hospitals magisterial inquiry. The survey thus does not cap- ture the electorate's mood over the past week as speculation grew on a possible arraignment of former prime minister Joseph Muscat. However, the MaltaToday sur- vey confirms a pattern already established in previous polls showing that abstention is dis- proportionately penalising the Labour Party in a scenario where voters disgruntled or disinter- ested in the PL prefer to abstain than migrate to the PN. This pattern was only broken in the March survey amid mount- ing speculation on a Joseph Mus- cat candidature in the MEP elec- tion. The speculation energised the party's grass roots and possi- bly reduced the abstention rate. In that particular survey, a nine- point increase in the turnout compared to February, resulted in an increased gap between the two main parties from 15,000 in February to nearly 29,000 in March. This suggests that as hopes of a Muscat candidature started to fade, so did the enthusiasm of Labour voters, some of who have reverted back to the no vote camp. The impact on the electorate from the latest developments concerning the hospitals inquiry and Prime Minister Robert Ab- ela's attack on the judiciary will likely be captured in the weeks to come. How abstention is penalising Labour Significantly among Labour voters in the 2022 general elec- tion, abstention has increased from just 14% in March to 23% in the current poll. This means that just under one in every four who voted Labour in 2022 will not vote in next June's election. Moreover, the narrowed gap between the two parties can be explained by the PN's higher re- tention of its 2022 voters. While Labour retains 71% of its 2022 voters, the PN is retaining 83% of its voters. And while a month ago the two major parties were losing a simi- lar percentage of 2022 voters to abstention (13% in the case of the PN and 14% in the case of the PL), in the latest survey the PN loses 15% of its 2022 voters to ab- stention and the PL is losing 23%. In a clear indication that the lower turnout among PL voters is the major factor behind the narrowed gap, the survey indi- cates a minimal shift from La- bour to the PN. While the PN loses 1.5% of its 2022 voters to Labour, the PL loses 2% of its 2022 voters to the PN. Compared to March, support for third parties and independ- ents has remained stable at 5.1%. But the PL, which loses 4% of its 2022 support to third parties is more vulnerable to these losses compared to the PN which only loses 1% of its support to third parties. Trouble in the Labour heartlands Compared to last month a breakdown by region shows a considerable increase in non-voters in the Labour-lean- ing South-eastern and South Harbour regions. In the south east, which in- cludes Żejtun, Marsaxlokk, Mar- saskala, abstention has increased from 25% in March to 33% now. And in the South Harbour re- gion, which includes Cottonera, abstention has increased by 11 points from 20% in March to 31% now. Labour still retains a solid majority in both regions, but has seen its support decrease by seven points in the south east and by eight points in the South Harbour region. In the Western region, the PN leads with 35.5% over the PL's 33.3%. The Opposition party al- so leads in the North Harbour region with 38% against the PL's 33.4%. In the Northern region that includes St Paul's Bay, the PN enjoys a wafer-thin lead – 30.6% against the PL's 30.2%. The Northern region is also the one where third parties and inde- pendents score their best result – 5.8%. In Gozo, the PL enjoys a sub- stantial lead with a score of 41.1% against the PN's 31.7%. Support for Labour drops among low earners The survey also shows a re- duction in support for Labour Abstention is disproportionately Voting intentions: 2022 voters Voting intentions by age