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10 OPINION maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 10 JULY 2024 THE French election results are everything except what predic- tions had forecast. Only days ago, Marine Le Pen's National Rally party was tipped to win. But as results came in it became clear it was the loser of these National Assembly elec- tions. The far right National Rally came third, behind Macron's centrist Ensemble coalition in second. And in first place, some- what against the odds, is the three-week-old left-wing alli- ance the New Popular Front. The NFP won 182 seats in the National Assembly, mak- ing it the largest group in the 577-seat parliament. Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance, which trailed in a dis- tant third in the first round, mounted a strong recovery to win 163 seats. And the RN and its allies, de- spite leading the first round, won 143 seats. This is a major twist in the roll- er coaster that French politics has been since June 9 when Ma- cron called a snap election. Ma- cron, who will serve as president until 2027, now faces a turbulent period of government. The results mean that no par- ty will likely be able to form a parliamentary majority on its own, and France is heading for what will likely be a turbulent coalition government. Overall, this election is a sig- nificant victory for the left. However, the New Popular Front is unlikely to be able to deliver on its key electoral promises, contrary to what di- visive hard-left populist Jean- Luc Mélanchon claimed in a victory speech he gave on be- half of La France Insoumise, the lead party within the New Popular Front coalition. Why will the coalition that came first not be able to form a government on its own? The French parliamentary system under the Fifth Repub- lic was designed for two large blocs: the moderate right and the moderate left, with a small centre in the middle and even smaller extremes on the far left and far right. This is how it's been working since 1958, with only two exceptions in over six decades: President Valéry Gis- card D'estaing (1974-1981) and President Macron (since 2017), two centrists presidents who took the nation by surprise. Today, however, the situa- tion is unheard of with three major coalitions very close to one another in the French low- er house. None will be able to form a government on their own: they simply do not have the numbers. To achieve a majority in the French lower house, a coalition needs 289 of the 577 MP seats. Even today's winner – the New Popular Front – is far from this magic number. So, how do you govern France with no leading majority coa- lition? In theory, any French govern- ment must have the support of the lower house – the National Assembly – in order to govern effectively and pass legislation. If a majority of MPs do not sup- port the government, the gov- ernment falls and a new gov- ernment is constituted from that majority. With today's results, poten- tial crossbenchers have mul- tiplied in the French lower house, creating what is likely to be France's most unstable political landscape since the French Fourth Republic that went through 22 governments within 12 years, between 1946 and 1958. That being said, France's next government will be left-lean- ing. It is unclear for now whether it will be uncompro- misingly left or simply mildly labour – this will depend on how elected members of the new house decide to work with one another and transform election coalitions into govern- ment coalitions. What is clear, however, is that the New Popular Front will need to broker a deal with Macron's coalition if it wants to govern and soften its agenda of reforms. The problem is that the most radical fringe of the New Popular Front (populist left-wing party La France In- soumise) does not wish to work with Macron, which they have spent the last two years detest- ing loudly. Although it is victorious to- day, the New Popular Front may very well implode, shortly or in a few months. Macron still has enough MPs to assemble a motley coalition spanning from the moderate labour of the So- cialist Party and the Greens to the most moderate members of Les Républicains. But the Socialist Party is initially like- ly to try to work with its new unexpected ally of the France Insoumise (far left) to deliver a more left wing agenda and act as a power broker between the hard left and Macron's cen- trists. In most other European coun- tries, today's results would not be an issue. Italy, Belgium and Germany for example are used to having coalition govern- ments in office. France does not know how to do this. Its institutions are not designed for such types of government precisely because Charles De Gaulle wanted to avoid coalition government when he drafted the Constitu- tion of the Fifth French Repub- lic under which France is still operating. Besides institutions, French political culture is a little more sectarian and flamboyant by tradition, and collaboration is seen as a sin and a betray- al rather than a virtue. If the left and Macron's centre are not able to collaborate for at least 12 months (the minimum constitutional delay for a new election), they can be sure that they will pave the way for the National Rally to win the next election as a result of popular exasperation. What do the results mean for Europe and the rest of the world? For now, and after much up- French say 'non' to Le Pen's National Rally – but a messy coalition government looks likely Romain Fathi is Senior Lecturer, School of History, ANU / Chercheur Associé at the Centre d'Histoire de Sciences Po, Australian National University • theconversation.com Romain Fathi France is heading for what will likely be a turbulent coalition government