Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1529555
7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 20 NOVEMBER 2024 ANALYSIS ties. Labour loses only 1.2% of its voters (2,000 votes) to third parties, whereas the PN loses 7.8% (9,600 votes) to ADPD and others. This highlights the PN's vulnerability to smaller parties, including new formations such as Arnold Cassola's embryonic initiative. According to Illum, PN insiders have expressed concerns about the potential impact of Cassola's party. The survey indicates that 4.1% of PN voters now support a mix of small parties, with ADPD ac- counting for 3.7%. While this could be a tempo- rary trend, as MEP elections have shown that Labour can also lose votes to third parties or independents, the consist- ent pattern indicates that dis- gruntled Labour voters tend to abstain, whereas PN voters are more inclined to switch to third parties. Winning back third-par- ty voters is more challenging than re-engaging abstainers, as third-party supporters may de- velop a distinct political iden- tity. Cassola's recognition and credibility could exacerbate this challenge. Moreover, as the PN seeks to gain the trust of major financial interests to present it- self as a government in waiting, it risks losing ground to opposi- tion parties advocating tougher stances on issues like the Villa Rosa project. In this sense, by trying to chase with the hounds and run with the hares, Grech could be inadvertently contrib- uting to the PN's haemorrhage. Incumbency: Government is still viewed favourably Globally, governing parties are often punished by restless electorates. Yet, despite the La- bour Party's declining fortunes, surveys indicate that the Abe- la-led government still receives a favourable rating of 2.7 out of 5 – a respectable score for a government navigating a chal- lenging international climate. The latest budget is rated 3 out of 5, and Labour remains more trusted than the PN in manag- ing the economy. However, challenges remain. Despite Labour's positive track record on economic growth, 35% of respondents trust neither party to manage public financ- es, compared to 28% who trust Labour and 16% who trust the PN. This indicates dissatisfac- tion with the economic model driving growth. Notably, among non-voters, 10% trust Labour as the better economic manager, while none trust the PN. Verdict: Labour has a larger pond from which to fish votes When considering these three factors – greater trust in Abela, particularly among cur- rent non-voters; the PN's vul- nerability to third parties; and the incumbent's favourable ap- proval ratings – it appears that Labour has a better chance of securing another victory, albe- it with a reduced margin. However, Labour could still be derailed by unforeseen chal- lenges, including a resurgence of inflation due to interna- tional instability, internal di- visions within the party relat- ed to Joseph Muscat's judicial troubles, and increased com- petition from third-party can- didates appealing to Labour voters. shaping the PL's and PN's prospects How PN voters in 2022 will vote now How PL voters in 2022 will vote now