Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1546635
MALTA likes to talk about the future. We have strategies for 2030, visions for 2050, digital ambitions, artificial intelligence plans, productivity reports and endless discussions about be- coming a higher-value economy. Yet the most important invest- ment Malta can make in any of those ambitions is sitting in classrooms today. On that meas- ure, the latest evidence should make us profoundly uncomfort- able. The PISA 2025 results are not simply another education report to be discussed for a few days be- fore the political cycle moves on. They are a warning about Malta's future productive capacity. PISA assesses 15-year-olds not simply on what they can remember, but on whether they can solve prob- lems, think critically, communi- cate and apply knowledge to un- familiar situations. In other words, it attempts to measure precisely the capabilities that increasingly determine whether people, firms and ultimately countries can prosper in a knowledge-intensive economy. On this measure, Malta has gone backwards. The numbers are brutal. In 2025, Malta performed below the OECD average in mathematics, reading and science. Performance declined from 2022 in all three subjects. More worryingly, read- ing and science results were lower than in any previous PISA assess- ment in which Malta participated. Compared with 2015, the propor- tion of low-performing students increased by 15 percentage points in mathematics, 12 points in read- ing and four points in science. These are not marginal fluctua- tions around an otherwise reas- suring trend. They point towards an education system struggling to equip a significant share of a generation with the basic capabil- ities required for the economy we claim we want to build. Consider what the proficiency figures actually mean. Only 56% of Maltese students reached at least Level 2 in mathematics, compared with 65% across the OECD. Just 5% were top performers. In sci- ence, 63% reached the baseline level compared with an OECD average of 74%, while only 5% reached the highest levels. Read- ing is even more disturbing. Only 52% reached baseline proficiency compared with 69% across the OECD. That means almost one in two Maltese 15-year-olds did not reach the level at which students can identify the main idea in a moderately long text, locate in- formation using sometimes com- plex criteria and reflect on a text's purpose when directed to do so. Only 2% were top performers in reading, against an OECD average of 6%. It is difficult to reconcile those numbers with our rhetoric about becoming a knowledge economy. For years, Malta has been re- assured by excellent headline economic results. GDP expand- ed rapidly, employment reached record levels, unemployment remained low, government rev- enues grew and new economic sectors continued to arrive. These are real achievements. But they have also created an extraordinar- ily dangerous illusion that because the economy is performing well today, the foundations of prosper- ity must also be strong. They are not the same thing. Economics is ultimately about choices across time. A country can maximise today's output while underinvesting in tomorrow's productive capacity. Indeed, Mal- ta's recent economic model made that relatively easy. When firms needed to expand, additional la- bour could be imported. When domestic skills were unavailable, they could often be sourced in- ternationally. When consumption increased, GDP increased. When population increased, domestic demand increased. When con- struction expanded to accommo- date that growth, economic activ- ity increased again. The machine became extraordinarily effective at producing immediate econom- ic results. Education operates on an entire- ly different clock. A child entering primary school today will influ- ence Malta's productive capacity for decades. Improvements made to teaching, literacy, numeracy and critical thinking may take years before they become visible in productivity statistics. Political systems naturally struggle with investments whose returns mate- rialise beyond the next election, while GDP rewards activity occur- ring now. We have therefore be- come exceptionally good at man- aging the numerator of today's economy while neglecting one of the most important determinants of tomorrow's. The bill will eventually arrive. A more demanding economic model This matters particularly be- cause the economic model Malta now says it wants is much more demanding than the one that produced the growth of the past decade. We want higher wages. Higher wages require higher pro- ductivity. We want businesses to compete through innovation rather than labour costs. Innova- tion requires sophisticated human capital. We want artificial intelli- gence and digitalisation to trans- form firms. Technology comple- ments skills far more effectively than it compensates for their ab- sence. We want Maltese business- es to scale internationally. That requires managers, scientists, en- gineers, entrepreneurs and work- ers capable of analysing informa- tion, solving unfamiliar problems and continuously learning. Yet half of our 15-year-olds are struggling to reach baseline read- ing proficiency. That contradiction should dom- inate Malta's economic debate. We have spent enormous politi- cal energy debating where the next economic sector will come from, how many workers Malta needs, what tax incentives should be of- fered, which infrastructure project should be built and how artificial intelligence will transform pro- ductivity. These questions matter. But none is more fundamental than the quality of the people who will inherit the economy. Human capital is not another pillar of economic strategy. It is the foun- dation underneath virtually every other pillar. There are warning signs be- yond the test scores themselves. Around 45% of Maltese students reported having skipped at least one full day of school during the two weeks before the PISA assess- 18 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 20 SEPTEMBER 2026 OPINION JP Fabri We have failed our future Economist Economics is ultimately about choices across time. A country can maximise today's output while underinvesting in tomorrow's productive capacity