Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/278185
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 16 MARCH 2014 News 19 cut the gap by 5 points. The good news for the National- ist Party is that a tenth of Labour voters – most of whom still prefer Muscat to Busuttil – would not vote in next May's election. The bad news for the National- ist Party is that it is still suffering from a small haemorrhage of votes to Labour. In fact 3% of PN voters in 2013 will vote PL in next May's election. This is partly offset by 2% of PL voters (mainly switchers) who will be voting PN next May. This means that even in opposi- tion, the PN has remained vulner- able to Muscat's seductive appeal to its ever-shrinking voting base. In this way, Muscat is able to offset any small losses among switchers and PL voters. As things stand the only factor saving the PN from another hu- miliating defeat next May is the abstention of PL voters. The good news for Muscat is his ability to continue to expand in Nationalist territory and there- fore compensate for losses among Labour voters and switchers. The bad news is that although 68% of switchers approve his perform- ance in government, 50% are un- decided on who to vote for in the next election and only a third have already made up their mind to vote Labour. The survey indicates that most of these undecided switchers still gravitate towards Labour. In fact 64% prefer Muscat to Busuttil. But their vote is not a forgone conclu- sion. Moreover a tenth of switch- ers have already migrated back to the Nationalist Party. The survey indicates low levels of support for third parties. Only 1.3% intend voting for the Greens while 0.5% intend voting for other parties or candidates. But with 40% of voters not revealing their inten- tions or not voting, support for all parties could be higher than that registered in the survey. Alfred Sant the front-runner The survey indicates that ten years after leading his party in a campaign against EU membership, Alfred Sant will probably emerge as the candidate winning most votes in next May's European elec- tions. 12% of all voters and 35% of PL voters intend to vote for Sant. In his party the other sure bet is Miriam Dalli, who is supported by 18% of PL voters. This suggests that the sover- eignist Labour intellectual and former prime minister still enjoys the respect of a large section of La- bour voters. On the other side, the only sure bets are the incumbents – Nation- alist MEPs Roberta Metsola and David Casa. The only surprise is that Metsola, who replaced Simon Busuttil in the European parlia- ment a year ago, emerges as the frontrunner, surpassing Casa by 6 points among PN voters. The survey indicates that the oth- er two seats are up for grabs and no candidate emerges as a favourite. The only indication given by this survey is that Francis Zammit Di- mech has a slight advantage in the PN camp while incumbent Marlene Mizzi and candidate Cyrus Engerer are a step ahead of the others in the Labour camp. But any advantage any candidate can have in this sur- vey may be attributed to the sur- vey's margin of error. Ultimately the fifth and sixth can- didate will be elected on the basis of the second, third and subsequent preferences inherited from the front-runners. Methodology 551 respondents were contacted by telephone between Monday 10 March and Thursday 13 March. 400 accepted to be interviewed. The results of the survey were weighed to reflect the age and gender balance of the population. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9%. mt survey PN PL AD Others Not voting Don't know No reply PN PL AD Others Not voting Don't know No reply 69.2 9.1 31.8 How PL voters in 2013 intend to vote in May: PN 1.7 PL 69.2 AD 0.6 Not Voting 11.2 Don't Know 15.6 No Reply 1.7 How respondents who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013 intend to vote in May: PN 9.1 PL 31.8 AD 0 Not voting 4.6 Don't Know 50 No Reply 4.5 Between Simon Busuttil and Joseph Muscat who do you trust most? June July October Dec March Joseph Muscat 43.3 39.7 47.4 46.4 45.8 Simon Busuttil 25.9 26.7 31.1 29.6 28 None 9.2 8.4 7,2 11.2 12.5 Don't Know 21.6 25.1 14.3 12.8 13.7 According to political orientation PN PL Switchers Simon Busuttil 75.2 3.5 9.1 Joseph Muscat 6.8 89.5 63.6 None 9.4 3.5 9.1 Don't Know 8.6 3.5 18.2 Joseph Muscat Simon Busuttil None Don't Know Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2013 News mt survey The survey indicates that most undecided switchers still gravitate towards Labour