Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/373141
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 31 AUGUST 2014 News 11 out of the (democracy) box government may turn its back on 40,000 petitioners calling for the referendum, Muscat immediately quelled speculation. "The referendum process has started and it is not at the dis- cretion of the politician. I appeal for calm, because I am seeing too many attempts, from both lobbies, to fight against the other," he said on August 30. Yet he did not refrain from woo- ing the hunting lobby through the campaign, both by affirming his own position in favour of spring hunting, and through candidates like Cyrus Engerer and Clint Camilleri, who openly supported the hunters' position against hold- ing the referendum, on the ground that such a referendum would be against minority rights. Yet Muscat still faced a quan- dary – while he could not heed the hunters' demand without losing his hard earned democratic cre- dentials, he could not afford ig- noring one of the lobby groups to which he owes his super majority. A way out for Muscat was offered by the FKNK on June 2, just days after the MEP elections and on the presentation of a 100,000 strong petition by the hunting lobby. FKNK president Joe Perici Ca- lascione said he expected the ref- erendum not to be linked to any other national votes. "I expect a stand-alone referen- dum, because that is when people really voice their opinion on an is- sue – not when a vote is held to- gether with something completely unrelated." The logic behind this ploy is crystal clear: A referendum can- not pass if a majority of voters do not turn out to vote and turnout is bound to be lower than in another issue, for the simple reason that spring hunting may not be high on the list of priorities of an indiffer- ent segment of the electorate. Moreover a climate of passive but equally effective intimidation by the hunting lobby may well scare off voters from going to cast their ballot if they are denied the cover of voting in another elec- tion. The sight of hunters oversee- ing polling booths may well be the decisive factor in a stand-alone referendum. With half of Malta voting in local elections next year, this strategy would have failed. If local elections are postponed the coalition against spring hunting will not only have to present the arguments to convince the electorate to vote yes but it will also have to use very limited resources to convince vot- ers to turn up and vote. Yet by ensuring that local elections do not take place next year, the hunters are being given the impression that their voice is being heard. In fact although the petition was granted official legitimacy by Junior Minister Michael Falzon, it has not even been discussed in parliament. Neither has the FKNK insisted on such a discussion. This may well suggest a compromise. Muscat would not want to harm his democratic credentials by ac- ceding to an anti democratic pe- tition to restrict referenda. But at the same time he has done everything in his power to obstruct the spring hunt- ing referendum from passing by heeding the hunters' call for a stand alone referendum. Moreover it is also difficult for the anti hunting brigade to cry wolf. For complaining against this travesty could well be interpreted by the electorate as a sign of weak- ness. For Muscat can convincingly ar- gue as he has already done. "The abrogative referendum is an independent process and whether it is held with local elections or not should not be an issue for its sup- porters," Muscat told MaltaToday on 20 July. "If there is such enthusiasm and desire for a referendum to de- termine whether spring hunting should be banned or not, then [supporters] shouldn't be trou- bled." Rebutting this argument without showing signs of weakness is dif- ficult for referendum campaigners who have to instil confidence in voters. Once again by thinking out of the box Muscat has shown his mas- tery of the political chess game. Yet there are two potential risks of taking such a gamble; the flak of public opinion and a wave of indig- nation leading to a yes victory in the referendum. Manufacturing consent Muscat may have been banking on the lack of any sense of indignation on the part of civil society when he announced his intentions to postpone elec- tions. One reason for the lack of indigna- tion may well be that it is complicated to make an association between the hunting referendum and local elections. Neither does it seem that people recoil in horror at hav- ing the term of some councils extended by a couple of years. Moreover it also resonates with the "let us work" (halluna nahdmu) mind-frame in which local elections are seen as a distraction rather than an occa- sion for the electorate to express itself on local issues, at a moment when planning reforms are being engineered to facilitate business and investment. Muscat may also be banking on electoral fatigue after the political turbulence which has character- ised Maltese politics since 2008. In this way Muscat could be aim- ing at a de-escalation of tensions and thus may ride on popular dis- enchantment with partisan politics while still seeking partisan goals. The government may also con- vincingly argue that the overall goal is not in any way to reduce people's choice but that of stream- lining elections in two rounds; general elections followed by lo- cal and European elections a year later. The big picture Muscat may well be banking on his successful management of a free market economy, which he in- herited from the previous admin- istration. Moreover his ingenious citizenship scheme has enabled him to escape the quandary faced by fellow social democrats like Francois Hollande who are unable to balance promises of greater so- cial expenditure and the tight fis- cal parameters of the euro zone. In the absence of social discon- tentment and economic troubles, Muscat may be immune to criti- cism on his increasingly presiden- tial style of government, and make him strong enough to move demo- cratic goal posts at whim. In this climate it may also be easy to portray the hunting referendum itself as a distraction orchestrated by a couple of odd balls and eccen- trics who miss the bigger picture of turning Malta into a Dubai or Singapore. Muscat's gamble Still Muscat may be underesti- mating one factor; the growing perception that his government is in debt to strong lobbies, ranging from Armier squatters to building contractors and from energy mag- nates to gun toting hunters. For if the referendum is held and won by the coalition against spring hunting, Muscat may well find himself bruised. Yet to avoid this outcome he may well bank on the loyalty of Labour Party voters who provide a bedrock of support, which stifles any attempt at cre- ating cross party support for any civil society initiative perceived to contradict government positions. For the latest survey on hunting conducted by MaltaToday after the MEP election already showed Labour voters shifting from a 48% majority against spring hunting to a 48% majority in favour of retain- ing spring hunting. Still an overall majority of 44% voters, including 32% of Labour voters, would vote against spring hunting in the ref- erendum. For Labour the choice remains between thwarting the referen- dum through abstention or ac- tively supporting a no campaign at the risk of alienating a category of liberal and green voters. By securing a stand alone ref- erendum for the hunting lobby Muscat may leave both options open, fully knowing that a greater segment of potential yes voters won't vote in a stand alone refer- endum. Ironically one reason given to justify holding local elections in 2019 is that of increasing turnout in these elections by having them linked to European elections. The real reason could be that of low- ering the turnout in the referen- dum.