Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/507285
maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 6 MAY 2015 4 News Winner takes naught? JURGEN BALZAN BY Friday morning, Britain and the rest of the world will know the outcome of the tightest election the UK has ever seen, but it might take weeks to know who will be in government. Traditionally, Britons vote on Thursdays because workers were paid on Fridays and holding polls one day before payday ensured that people were not too drunk to vote. But, on Friday morning I wouldn't blame anyone for feel- ing disoriented and befuddled be- cause the winner will not neces- sarily be in government. The out-dated electoral system will most probably churn out an equivocal result which will throw the country into the unchartered waters of political uncertaint y and long weeks of negotiations between parties. This election could see the Con- servatives or Labour winning more votes and more seats than the other and still end up on the opposition benches. Moreover there's a lot at stake. This election will not only shape the future of the world 's fifth larg- est economy but it will also deter- mine the European Union's future since the ruling Conservatives and the Eurosceptic right-wing UKIP are adamant on holding a referendum over the country's permanence in the bloc. With support for Labour and the Conservatives – the largest two parties in post-war Britain – at an all time low, smaller parties will play a determining role in this year's election. Different scenarios Although up to eight parties are expected to be represented at Westminster, the Liberal Demo- crats and the Scottish National Part y are likely to be the king- makers and decide whether David Cameron will remain in posses- sion of the keys to No 10 Down- ing Street or hand them over to Labour leader Ed Miliband. Many analysts and commenta- tors have dubbed the 2015 cam- paign as boring and the main differences between the larger parties are in form rather than in content. However, there a few policy areas in which Cameron and Miliband are diametrically opposed and the outcome of prospective coalition talks could take the country in opposing directions, especially in fiscal, social and foreign policy. All polls indicate that neither the Tories nor Labour will win the outright majorit y needed to gov- ern alone. Parties need 326 seats to govern but if no part y secures a majorit y, an alliance of more than 322 MPs could probably survive a confidence vote. Although Cameron and Mili- band stoically insist that they could yet score a surprise victory, polls show that the two parties are head to head and the chances of a hung parliament are growing by the hour. The most likely outcome is a Tory/Lib Dem redux, however the parties could fall short of the magic number of seats needed for a majorit y and they could rely on forming a coalition with the con- servative minnows from Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Part y. Though Tory right-wing fac- tions and senior figures in the Liberal Democrats are not enthu- siastic about a second Tory/Lib Dem government, in recent days the Liberal leader and outgoing deput y prime minister Nick Clegg has signalled his inclination to go into a fresh coalition with the Tories, by insisting that he did not regard the demand for an in/out referendum on the European Un- ion as a red line. This could see the leader of the most pro-European part y in the UK lead his country out of the EU but this compromise on his part could be a trade off for Tory tacti- cal voting in Clegg's constituency in Yorkshire, which should ensure that the Lib Dem leader holds on to his seat. The Lib Dems are set to lose over half of their 57 seats and this could possibly see Clegg replaced by part y stalwarts such as outgo- ing chief secretary to the treasury Danny Alexander or energy min- ister Edward Davey. Both have ex- pressed their doubts on whether the Lib Dems should continue their partnership with Cameron after experiencing a heav y haem- orrhage of voters and members. Therefore, the Tories need Clegg to retain his seat and the Lib Dem leadership to stand any chance of securing a deal with the part y. On the other hand, Miliband 's best chances of securing a major- it y is entering a partnership with the Scottish National Part y, how- ever Miliband has ruled out the possibilit y, saying that this would endanger the unit y of the king- dom. The SNP's main platform is built on the winding down of the nuclear submarine programme Trident, a reversal of austerit y measures and increasing spending by £140 bil- lion. However, the Tories in their increasingly negative campaign, claim that the Scottish Nation- alists would blackmail a Labour government into creating a bigger deficit and Miliband himself has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP because he believes the Scots want to hold another referendum on Scottish independence within the next year. Labour has come under attack from many quarters about its in- abilit y to hold on to Scotland, which up to 2010 predominantly voted red, however these critics have snubbed the Scottish elec- torate's freedom to vote for the part y they feel best represents Scottish interests. Another option for Miliband would be that of forming an alli- ance of progressive parties with the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and Greens which could see the smaller parties support a Labour government on a case-by-case ba- sis. Miliband could come to rue his decision to snub the SNP but what is clear is that Britain is undergoing fundamen- tal changes in its political system and culture. It could finally convince the Anglo-Saxons that there's noth- ing wrong with coalitions and it might finally spell the end of the first past the post system. Embattled Cameron makes a point Ed Miliband – promises written in stone First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon (right) shares a hug with Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood