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MT 1 June 2017

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maltatoday, THURSDAY, 1 JUNE 2017 10 MaltaToday Survey JAMES DEBONO -0.7pp -1.4pp -0.2 0.3pp -0.8pp -3pp 5.8pp CHANGE SINCE 28 MAY 2017 • *PD's vote included in PN vote 0.5% 0.3% 1.4% 12% 9.9% AD Patriots Not voting Don't know No reply 40.4% 35.5% PL PN* For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? The big question of how the undecided voters will go Who are the undecided? The percentage of undecided voters and no replies in this week 's survey (22%) is lower than the 32% registered in MaltaToday's last survey before the 2013 general election. In the last survey before the 2013 general election, the 12-point gap between parties in this survey corre- sponded to the actual election result. But an extrapolation of the survey after removing the undecided and no replies gave Labour a 19-point lead. This suggests that even in 2013, the undecided and non-replies included a greater percentage of Nationalist vot- ers. Prior to the March 2013 election, while 28% of undecided voters de- clared voting PN in 2008, only 17% of undecided voters declared voting PL. In this survey 24% declared vot- ing PN in 2013, 24% declared voting Labour in 2013 while the remaining 51% did not reveal their 2013 vote. An overwhelming majority of presently undecided voters had voted PN in 2008. In fact while 36% had voted PN in 2008, only 7% had voted Labour on that occasion. This suggests that while the unde- cided and no replies in this survey leaned heavily towards the PN in 2008, they also include a segment of them that had switched to Labour in 2013. In fact, switchers account for a tenth of the undecided in this survey. Another tenth of undecided voters did not vote in the 2013 general elec- tion. 7% of PL voters to vote PN The survey shows 6.5% of Labour voters (up from 6.3% last week) in 2013 shifting from the PL to the PN and 4% (up from 3.3% last week) of PN voters in 2013 shifting from the PN to the PL. In actual figures this would trans- late in the PL losing some 10,889 votes to the PN and the PN losing circa 5,297 votes to the PL over the 2013 election figures. The survey also shows PL losing 1.4% of its 2013 voters to abstention compared to none lost by PN. If translated in actual votes this would translate in Labour losing 2,345 votes to abstention. When losses to abstention and f lows between the two parties are taken into account, the PN is gaining 5,592 votes over 2013 and the PL losing 7,937 votes. This suggests that while the PN is gaining more votes than the PL, the shift is not enough to over- turn Labour's majority. Moreover the PL is compensating some of its losses in the Labour cohort of voters by making some inroads in the PN's 2013 cohort of voters. But these figures do not factor the inf lux of non-voters in previous elec- tions, new voters and respondents who claim to be still undecided. The survey shows 6.5% of PL voters in 2013 undecided – the same as last week. This category is mainly com- posed of switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013. In the switcher category, 23% are undecided com- pared to only 2.4% of PL voters in 2008. The survey still shows that 7% of PN voters in 2013 remain undecided. The percentage rises to a staggering 10% among PN voters in 2008. This is a clear indication that a segment of PN leaning voters are claiming to be undecided just a few days before the election. While the previous two surveys had shown the PN-PD coalition lead- ing among switchers, in this survey Labour enjoys a 7-point lead in this strategic category. The survey only gives an indica- tion how previous non-voters and new voters will be voting on June 3 because the sample of these two stra- tegic cohorts is too small. The survey confirms the PN's strong advantage among non-voters in 2013. Among this category the PN leads by 29 points. This suggests that the PN is recovering former voters who registered their protest by not voting in the 2013 general election. On the other hand, the survey shows Labour leading by 16 points. In the previous survey the PN was running neck-to- neck with Labour in this category. Muscat enjoys 6-point lead Overall when asked who of the two leaders they trust most, 37.6% chose Busuttil while 43.4% chose Muscat. Compared to last week Busuttil has lost 0.9 points while Muscat has re- tained the same rating. But Busuttil's loss can be clearly at- tributed to a 3 point increase in re- spondents who either refused to an- MaltaToday's final survey shows Labour widening the gap from 4.2 to 4.9 points over last week's poll. But Labour's gain corresponds to an increase of 2.8 points among respondents who are either undecided or who refused to state their voting intention. Muscat has also extended his trust lead over Busuttil from 4.8 to 5.8 points amidst an increase in undecided. All differences fall within the margin of error of both surveys Significantly 6.8% of 2013 PL voters trust Busuttil more than Muscat. But 4.8% of 2013 PN voters trust Muscat more than Busuttil

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