Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1012451
maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 8 AUGUST 2018 7 The PN's record in govern- ment on environmental is- sues and corruption has neu- tralised its attempts to turn these issues into its new bat- tle cries. Through Egrant, the PN has shot itself in the foot and has further weakened its stance on the corruption is- sue. While the conclusions of the Egrant inquiry does not exorcise Muscat's shortcom- ings in Panamagate, it does weaken the PN's credibility on the issue. Migration re- mains a major concern for the public but neither can the PN propose a silver bul- let solution without sounding simplistic to a category of its own voters which is either al- lergic to xenophobia or which sees immigrants as a source of economic prosperity. And while Muscat's strong-arm tactics against NGOs rescu- ing migrants further alienates left-wing critics, it enables him to offset disgruntlement among those who supported him in his push-back days. 7. Muscat still projects him- self as a moderate Like other strongman politi- cians Muscat remains a polar- ising figure but the reaction he solicits from critics gener- ally ends up strengthening his position. The Egrant narrative which depicted his family as the root of all corruption evil has backfired. Moreover Mus- cat's promise that he will not lead Labour in the next general election serves to dispel fears of him entrenching himself in power. Ironically it could be the prospect of Labour being elected with a two thirds ma- jority – something which is atypical of a European democ- racy – which could raise the alarm bells among a segment of the electorate that may be wary of an all powerful govern- ment. This may increase vot- ers' temptation to clip Muscat's wings before it is too late. 8. There is no credible third party to tap on disgruntlement among Labour voters In the absence of a credible third party, the PN remains the only opposition to Mus- cat. In this way voters who want change but consider La- bour as a 'better evil' in the circumstances have little space for manoeuver. Despite the PN being in such a bad shape the MaltaToday poll surpris- ingly shows a tenth of PL vot- ers switching to the PN. But these are still outnumbered by a fifth of PN voters switch- ing to Labour. Only a fraction of PN voters and no PL voters are switching to third parties. This suggests that the duopoly remains firmly ingrained with voters expressing disgruntle- ment by shifting from one side to another. As long as it gains more voters from the PN than it loses, Labour remains safe from any electoral threat from the PN and may even aspire to a bigger prize. NEWS ANALYSIS two-thirds majority for Labour? Does Labour have the numbers for a two-thirds majority? Scenario: If both parties fail to win 2017 voters who are presently undecided or intent on not voting LABOUR PN Total number of votes in 2017 in 2017 17,0976 13,5696 Minus voters who switched sides 16,756 28,768 Minus voters who remain undecided/ intent on not voting 11,968 31,345 Plus voters in 2017 who switched sides 28,768 16,756 Minus voters for AD 0 814 Plus voters who did not vote in 2017 who will vote PN or PL now 3,556 749 Total 17,4576 92,274 % of vote 65.4 34.6* *% share of vote excludes third parties which scored 0.7% in survey