Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1529555
6 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 20 NOVEMBER 2024 ANALYSIS SURVEYS held between 2009 and 2023 consistently showed the Labour Party commanding a lead beyond the margin of er- ror. The different surveys var- ied on the size of the gap but they did not differ on who was leading. However, with the parties now neck and neck, this is no longer the case. For instance, the latest MaltaToday sur- vey puts the Nationalist Party ahead by one percentage point, or 2,600 votes, based on a turn- out of 71%. But with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the gap between the parties could range from a PN lead of 4.8 points (12,000 votes) to a PL lead of 2.7 points (7,000 votes). In such a scenario, it is perfectly normal for pollsters to report different results, placing either party in the lead. This does not invalidate the findings of any survey. In fact, when the electorate is evenly split, it is expected that surveys will yield varying results. As was the case before 2008, pollsters will look for other tell- tale signs to interpret results. Moreover, the public deserves clearer explanations to avoid polls being perceived as some sort of divination exercise. This is why political polls in- clude different questions, with the most revealing insights of- ten found in cross-tabulations. The focus of this analysis is to identify the strongest indica- tors of which party is ahead. Non-voters: 31% of current non-voters prefer Abela to Grech The MaltaToday poll asks re- spondents to state which of the two major party leaders they trust most to run the country. MT surveys have consistently shown Abela enjoying a sub- stantial lead over Opposition leader Bernard Grech. However, it would be inaccu- rate to interpret an 18-point lead for Abela as an 18-point lead for Labour. This is be- cause around a quarter of PN voters trust neither leader. A significant portion of voters, therefore, do not trust Grech but may still vote for a change in government. Conversely, there is a nota- ble group of voters who trust Abela but would not vote if an election were held now. In the latest survey, while 31% of non-voters trust Abela, only 4% trust Grech. Meanwhile, 65% trust neither leader. Assuming turnout in a general election will exceed the current 71%, it is likely that non-voters who prefer Abela to Grech would lean towards Labour. The sur- vey suggests Labour has more room for growth than the PN. However, another important variable is non-voters who trust neither leader, who might ultimately vote for the PN. The fact that non-voters currently lean Labour – 26% of PL voters in 2022 now intend not to vote, compared to just 4% of PN vot- ers – is both a concern and an opportunity for Labour. Much depends on the party's ability to win them back. Third parties: PN gains from Labour cancelled out by losses to third parties One crucial factor in elec- tions with tight margins is the performance of third parties. The latest MaltaToday survey places support for third parties at 8%, consistent with results over the past year. While the latest survey indicates a small shift from Labour to the PN – with 4.1% of PL voters from 2022 now intending to vote PN, compared to 2.7% of PN voters shifting to Labour – this results in a net shift of 3,300 votes from PL to PN. However, these gains are off- set by PN losses to third par- Neck and neck: The key stats shaping With surveys showing the difference between both major parties within the margin of error – meaning either could be ahead – pollsters will look for other indicators. JAMES DEBONO identifies the key statistics that reveal which party has the best chance of winning the next general election. Who current non-voters trust most