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CONTINUES FROM PAGE 1 The party was nearly wiped out from the conservative is- land after the imposition of moral sanctions on Labour supporters by the church hier- archy, gaining just 6.3% of the Gozitan vote in the 1962 elec- tion and 22% in 1966. But after the Maltese Church lifted its moral sanctions on Labour activists in 1969, the party managed to double its vote, scoring 44.8% in 1971. Support for the PL was to slip again, reaching a low mark of 41% in the 1981 election, only to surprisingly recover in 1987 when its vote increased from 41% to 46%, while the PN's vote dropped by five points—a result attributed to the party's power of incumbency, patron- age, and Karmenu Mifsud Bon- nici's popularity in Gozo. This was one rare case where a surge in support for Labour in Gozo defied the national trend, which saw the PN win- ning the election with a slim absolute majority amid a tense political climate. Incumbency and its limits But after being elected, it was the PN that managed to in- crease its majority in Gozo by five percentage points from 1987 to 1992, thanks to the economic boom, a recalibra- tion of patronage networks, and the appointment of Gozo's first minister, the popular An- ton Tabone. The PN's increase in Gozo corresponded to the national trend, which saw it widening its gap with Labour from a mere 4,000 votes in 1987 to 13,000 nationally five years later. But following the first signs of economic decline, Labour saw its share of the vote increase by 5% in the 1996 election, mir- roring the national trend that saw Alfred Sant becoming PM. On the other hand, the pre- mature fall of Alfred Sant's government—during which the Gozo ministry post was removed—saw the party lose three points in Gozo, as the PN was returned to government with the popular Giovanna Debono, known for her strong constituency presence, as Gozo minister. The 2003 election saw Labour lose a further two points, dip- ping to 40.8%—its worst result in Gozo since 1992. This corre- sponded with a strong affirma- tion of the 'Yes' vote in Gozo in the EU referendum. The red shift begins The Nationalist decline in Gozo commenced in 2008, with Labour winning 42.9% of the Gozitan vote—an increase of two percentage points over its 2003 tally. In contrast, the PN lost five points between 2003 and 2008 in Gozo. This was a sharper drop for the PN than the 2.5pp national decline. In this case, Labour made strong- er gains in Gozo than in Malta as a whole, indicating that the red shift had started before the Muscat era. Labour was to score its most spectacular result in 55 years just a year after its electoral defeat, when, led by Muscat in the 2009 MEP elections, it scored 48% against the PN's 47.5%, thus becoming Gozo's first party. Yet the PN still clinched a wafer-thin relative majority of votes in 2013, albeit one which saw Labour winning three of the five Gozitan seats. It was only in 2017 that, after five years in power, the PL once again increased its vote to clinch an absolute majority of votes in Gozo. The 2022 elec- tion saw Labour consolidating its majority with 53.5%, its best result in post-independence history. Following—or anticipating— the nation The historical analysis sug- gests that a key driver behind voting shifts is incumbency, with both parties tending to consolidate support when in power (as happened in 2013 and 2003). But Gozitans have also tended to follow—and even anticipate—national trends by punishing ruling par- ties, as was the case in the PN's drop-in support in 1996, which mirrored the national trend, and in 2008, which anticipated the PN's meltdown in 2013. The only exception to this rule was the 1987 election, which saw Labour gaining ground over 1981 during its third term in office. The other exception was the 2022 general election, in which Labour was rewarded in its second term of incumbency. This suggests that Gozitans also tend to follow national trends in game-changing elec- tions, as was the case in 1996 and 2013. What is significant is that Labour continued increasing its vote share in subsequent 4 gozotoday | FRIDAY • 1 MAY 2026 ANALYSIS Can the PN's new Gozitan leader PN PL Gozo Gap National Gap 2003 60.1 39.4 20.7 4.28 2008 55.4 42.9 12.5 0.55 2013 50.1 49.1 1 11.49 2017 47.9 51.2 3.3 11.36 2022 43.9 53.5 9.6 13.37