Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1544693
elections in 2017 and 2022, in the same way as the PN had in- creased its vote share in 1992 and in 2003. The power of incumbency Incumbency plays a greater role in Gozo, since the impact of government is felt more di- rectly than in larger districts. Investment, employment op- portunities, and accessibility measures are highly visible and often personalised. But past results show that this is not al- ways the case. Over the past decade, Labour has leveraged this dynamic ef- fectively, particularly through a strong ministerial presence. It also boasts a strong Gozitan voice in its cabinet. Figures such as Planning, Gozo and Hunting Minister Clint Camilleri, Agriculture Minister Anton Refalo, and Health Minister Joe Etienne Abela provide Labour with both institutional reach and local visibility. Their portfoli- os intersect with core Gozitan concerns—reinforcing the per- ception of delivery. Labour's appeasement of hunters and trappers could also be a factor in its inroads in Gozo over the past decade. Surprisingly, Labour's social liberalism proved to be no im- pediment in a district which, in 2011, had rejected divorce with an overwhelming majority. A changing island Moreover, Gozo is increas- ingly becoming a less insular and more pluralistic society, where conflicting aspirations co-exist. For example, while a substan- tial number of Gozitan land- owners' profit from Labour's deregulation in planning, an increasingly vocal cohort laments development and the uglification of the Gozitan sky- line. One striking fact is that when the new Labour government commenced a reform of local plans in 2013 it received nearly 500 requests to extend the de- velopment zone in Gozo. But over the years Gozitans like Qala's PL mayor Paul Buttigieg have gained widespread re- spect for resisting major ODZ developments. Moreover, although patron- age remains a factor, it increas- es the frustration of those who are less inserted in these net- works. Navigating these contradic- tions is increasingly difficult for big tent parties like the PL and PN but third parties still find it difficult to fill the gap, lacking strong reference points in Gozo. Both parties are torn between these conflicting aspirations, with PN leader Alex Borg struggling to find a balance. As an MP, he voted in favour of the revised arrangement gov- erning Fort Chambray, which included provisions allowing the original concessionaire's rights and obligations to be transferred to a new consor- tium that was later granted a permit to demolish parts of the British barracks and relocate its façade. At the same time, the PN is also fielding candi- dates like Luke Said, who ac- tively support environmental campaigns. Borg's 'wild card' Still, as the first Gozitan ma- jor party leader in recent his- tory, Alex Borg—whose father worked closely with former Gozo Minister Giovanna Debono—introduces a wild card in the forthcoming elec- tion that could resonate in a district where identity and per- sonal networks remain impor- tant. Moreover, Gozitans benefit- ting from current policies are more likely to trust reassur- ances of continuity given by a fellow Gozitan. For example, Borg has re- cently raised concerns about pre-electoral job distribution, while crucially pledging to re- tain those employed—an at- tempt to neutralise a key elec- toral lever. This could also be a pre-emptive strike to neutral- ise Labour's power of incum- bency on the eve of elections. Labour on the front foot What was surprising in the first days of the campaign was that it was Labour which took the initiative by focusing on targeted policy measures aimed at Gozitans. Prime Minister Robert Abela has proposed making the Gozo Channel free for foot passen- gers and increasing the fast fer- ry grant from €650 to €800. He also promised to increase the Gozo Channel fleet, a commit- ment that addresses discontent created by the Nikolaos fiasco. These proposals are strategi- cally calibrated: connectivity remains one of the most salient issues in Gozo, shaping daily life and economic opportunity. A tough nut to crack It now remains to be seen whether Gozo will follow past trends, which saw its elector- ate rewarding the incumbent party, or rarer occasions where Gozitans contributed to—or even anticipated—nationwide shifts. What is sure is that, judging from what we have seen in the past days, Labour's hold in Gozo may be a tough nut to crack—even for a Gozitan PN leader. 5 gozotoday | FRIDAY • 1 MAY 2026 ANALYSIS leader reverse the 'great decline?' Prime Minister Robert Abela and PN leader Robert Abela 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2008 2013 2017 2022 60.1 39.4 55.4 42.9 50.1 49.1 47.9 51.2 43.9 53.5 PN PL Gozo district election results