Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1545285
10 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 7 JUNE 2026 ANALYSIS ELECTION 2026 The breakthrough Third parties picked up support in the election, surpassing the 10,000-vote mark but made no breakthrough. TURNOUT increased by two points and invalid votes de- creased by a point in the 2026 election. And yet, the collec- tive vote for ADPD and Mo- mentum was just one point higher than the combined vote of ADPD and Arnold Cassola's independent ticket in 2022. After a good showing by in- dependents in the 2024 MEP elections when 13% voted for candidates outside the two major parties, and with opin- ion polls suggesting an in- crease in non-voters, many expected a breakthrough by third parties this year. This did not materialise. In- stead, it confirmed the fun- damental difference between European elections, where people vote to choose MEPs, and national elections where people choose their govern- ment. Despite the 2026 turnout be- ing higher than 2022, albeit by a small margin, this does not appear to have benefitted third parties. 96.5% still vote PLPN The stark reality is that an overwhelming 96.5% of Mal- tese voters opted for the du- opoly, and only 3.5% voted for third parties, including the far right (0.7%). Collectively, third parties managed to attract 10,869 votes, a mere increase of 1,561 votes over the 2022 election. Moreover, the combined sum of centrist and progressive third parties, namely Momen- tum and ADPD, which togeth- er polled 8,696 votes (2.8%), was just 3,045 votes more than the sum of ADPD and Casso- la's independent ticket in 2022 (5,651 votes or 1.8%). Momentum, created on the crest of Cassola's relative- ly good showing in the MEP elections, was the new kid on the block and ran the strong- est campaign. However, its result, a paltry 1.5%, fell short of expectations and was only 0.2 points higher than that of ADPD. This raises the question as to whether the two parties would have performed better had they contested on a joint list. The fact that the combined result failed to breach the 3% threshold shows that even to- gether the two parties are not only a long way from electing an MP but also from making a breakthrough in terms of crit- ical mass. Limited appeal among working class voters Moreover, both parties made little inroads in the La- bour-leaning southern dis- tricts (districts 1 to 7), the 8 District and Gozo. While ADPD outperformed Momentum in most La- bour-leaning districts, Mo- mentum outperformed ADPD in PN-leaning districts. Suffice it to say that a third of Mo- mentum's votes were awarded to Arnold Cassola who con- tested the 9 and 10 districts. It was only in the PN-leaning districts between 9 and 12 that the combined sum of these two parties hovered around 4%. This suggests that the parties' message did not resonate with working-class voters living in less affluent districts. Moreo- ver, the over-reliance on pale blue middle-class voters in northern districts is giving di- minishing returns, especially now that the PN has a realistic chance to win the next general election given it has halved the gap in 2026. One key segment critical for the growth of progressive third-party politics, is their potential appeal to educat- ed young people hailing from working class Labour-leaning families. People want to choose their government Third parties lack the finan- cial resources of other parties, and the electoral system is rigged to favour the big parties given the absence of a national quota. But elections are not a charity event where third par- ties get the sympathy vote. Moreover, third parties also face a major stumbling block. In general elections, people generally choose the party they want to see in govern- ment and the party they want to keep out of power. Voters use their vote to answer the question: Who would you like to be in government? This question is not only in- grained in the national psyche but is also entrenched in the constitutional amendments introduced over the years that ensure proportionality be- tween votes and seats if two parties are elected to parlia- ment—the premise being that one party will govern and the other will be in Opposition. All those who vote for third ADPD captained by Sandra Gauci, only the third female leader of a political party in Malta's history, obtained 1.3% of the vote The fact that the combined result of Momentum and ADPD failed to breach the 3% threshold shows that even together the two parties are not only a long way from electing an MP but also from making a breakthrough in terms of critical mass.