Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/302202
Interview 12 THERE can be little doubt that we live in interesting times. With ten- sions between Russia and Europe mounting over the ongoing Crimean crisis, and an apparently chaotic situ- ation still unfolding across North Af- rica after the tumultuous events in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, there is a very real possibility that the bounda- ries of the world geo-political map may have to be redrawn. Meanwhile, an all-but forgotten civil war in Syria continues to un- dermine any hope of lasting peace and stability in an already war-torn region… and as former British Prime Minister Tony Blair reminded us all in a speech to Bloomberg this week, these and other situations call for a rethink on how (or even if) "the West" should position or involve it- self in these epochal upheavals. The United States has been a key player in most, if not all, these issues. And while the post of ambassador to Malta may not seem to be directly in the thick of things, it is nonetheless a busy time for the present incumbent, Ms Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the situa- tion in Ukraine is very firmly at the top of the diplomatic agenda for the United States at the moment. Given the sensitivity of relations with Rus- sia – formerly a world superpower, traditionally inimical to the US, and evidently still a military force to be reckoned with – both America and the EU have so far invested heavily in a diplomatic, as opposed to military, response to the impasse. But at the same time questions have been raised about the consistency of this approach. Observers have noted an apparent discrepancy in Western attitudes towards self-determination of emerging countries. A referendum in Crimea suggests that an over- whelming majority would prefer the peninsula to secede from Ukraine, and be absorbed by the Russian fed- eration. But while the US and Europe have so far resisted this possibility, their approach to the 2008 Kosovo- Serbia question was markedly dif- ferent. The US supported and rec- ognized Kosovar independence at the time. Does this not contrast with its current opposition to a referen- dum in Crimea? Isn't this a case of two weights two measures? Abercrombie-Winstanley ac- knowledges that this question keeps cropping up in international circles. But she insists that the two cases are entirely separate, and should be judged on their own respective mer- its. "There is a very real, very impor- tant difference between the two sce- narios," she tells me as we sit in the lavish drawing room in her official Balzan residence. "In Kosovo, the procedures that led to independence had been sanctioned by the United Nations security council. There was a process in place that had been agreed by the international com- munity. The situation in Ukraine, on the other hand, is not internationally sanctioned at all…" On the contrary, Abercrombie- Winstanley argues that the unfold- ing situation runs directly counter to recommendations made by the Unit- ed Nations: which called for all sides to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Clearly, the proposed seces- sion of Crimea to the Russian federa- tion would be a direct contradiction of a policy that has been agreed upon at UN level. Matters were not helped by the fact that armed forces have occupied buildings in east Ukraine – a situa- tion the US ambassador likens to "bullying and intimidation". It was such circumstances that led to the Crimean referendum, and this is clearly not conducive to a free and fair decision. The same tactics may also have exposed the apparent fragility of the peace that has reigned between Rus- sia and the West in recent decades. Inevitably, the realpolitik aspect of the situation now raises uncomfort- able memories of the hostilities of yesteryear. With relations between Russia and Europe rapidly frosting over, and the US mulling new sanc- tions against its traditional rival, is she concerned with a possible return to a Cold War-style standoff? Abercrombie-Winstanley shakes her head. "I don't think that's a real possibility. Today it's a very different world we live in. Many of the norms we have in place today simply didn't exist 30 or 40 years ago. There are lots of institutions in place to ensure that diplomacy continues to run its course." Here she rattles off a list of global institutions, ranging from G7 to G20, that have radically altered the inter- national political landscape over the past three decades. The fundamental difference between now and then, she explains, concerns the levels of communication that takes place be- tween the two sides. "In the days of the Cold War, we could not even have envisioned a discussion where all parties would sit around a table and hammer out a way forward. Today, we all under- stand that diplomacy is the key to finding ways of out of an impasse…" Nonetheless she acknowledges that diplomacy, in the case of Ukraine, is still a work in progress. "We have not arrived where we want to with Ukraine," she concedes. "We contin- ue to make it clear [in our communi- cations with Russia] that we expect all sides to stand by the agreements that have been concluded. On their part they have so far said the right things. It is time to implement the right things, too." Abercrombie-Winstanley makes no secret of what the US considers to be 'the right things' to do in this sce- nario. Separatist forces are expected to step back from the buildings they have occupied, and to lay down their weapons. How realistic are these objectives? Her reply exudes cautious optimism. "I believe we have the right formula. The important thing is that there is no one who believes that a solution cannot be found…" All sides, she adds, are committed to continue to focus on ways to avoid an escalation. Nonetheless, people outside the immediate spheres of diplomacy and international politics may be forgiven for being somewhat less op- timistic. After all, western interven- tion in other parts of the world has occasionally proved disastrous. One such case would appear to be our close neighbour Libya. Three years after the NATO intervention, the situation in Libya remains chaotic and unstable. Is she satisfied with the outcome of the US involvement in this case? And was enough thought given to the post-Gaddafi scenario, when contributing to his overthrow? "Satisfied? No. I don't think any- one can realistically express satisfac- tion with the situation as it stands today…" Here I concede that it was the wrong choice of word on my part. Still, some would argue that the situation in Libya today is arguably worse than it was under the previous regime: when, despite the undeni- able human rights abuses and other intrinsic problems associated with dictatorship, the country did at least have a basic security infrastructure. Abercrombie-Winstanley acknowl- edges that things could perhaps have been handled better, but argues that the pace of progress in Libya is also dictated by the failures of the past regime too. "We know that Libya had been under a dictatorship for 40 years: a dictatorship which under- mined civil society, and left an insti- tutional vacuum in its wake…" Part of the problem, in fact, con- cerns the lack of institutions to take over from the previous regime, re- sulting (among other things) in the fragmentation of power among lo- cal and largely tribal netowrks. In brief, much of what other countries take for granted has to be built from scratch in Libya. Under such circum- stances, the US ambassador suggests it would be unrealistic to expect any sudden changes for the better. "No one expected it to be easy. But the Libyans have a wide variety of partners in the international com- munity to help them put into place all the structures that are lacking; to help provide security and basic serv- ices. Many nations are committed to Libya's progress. The US, Turkey, Italy, the UK… all are providing as- sistance. Malta, too, provides help in training the police." And there have also been positive developments. Abercrombie-Win- stanley points out that, following recent developments, oil wells previ- ously held by rebels are now in the hands of the central government. With the oil flowing once more, the country can begin to address its fi- nancial and economic exigencies. But all this, she adds, takes time. "Patience is the key. In the end it is up to the Libyans themselves to de- termine their future… knowing that they can rely on support from their international partners." At the same time, the unrest cur- rently witnessed in that country may have had repercussions on other countries undergoing similar (albeit not identical) upheavals. In the case of Libya, the UN Security Council resolution was limited to a no fly zone to prevent attacks on civilians. In practice, however, this was used to support regime change... arguably going beyond the original remit of the UN. One possible repercussion of this state of affairs is that the countries originally involved in the Libyan up- rising – including, but not limited to, the US – may now be reluctant to involve themselves in other conflicts such as Syria. Is the Libyan prece- dent part of the reason that Western countries have seemingly abandoned Syria to its bloody fate? Abercrombie-Winstanley plays down any direct comparison between the two scenarios. "I don't think the Libyan situation has any real bearing or influence on US policy regarding Syria. Each revolution, each conflict or war situation, has its own dynamic and must be judged on its own mer- its. Whatever the US decides in the case of Syria will depend on the spe- cific situation in that country." Meanwhile Syria is not the only Middle Eastern country in which US policy or involvement has been ques- tioned over the years. The situation in Israel is another area where the US has had to face considerable criti- cism. Foremost among such com- By James Debono By Raphael Vassallo CRIMEA CRISIS We have not arrived where we want to with Ukraine… We continue to make it that we expect all sides to stand by the agreements that have been concluded ISRAELI ISSUES There is an effort by both parties, helped by the US, to reach a solution. But the obstacles are profound. As long as the doors of communication remain open, there is hope for a solution maltatoday, SUNDAY, 27 APRIL 2014 Patience is key to Libya's future