Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/731331
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 25 SEPTEMBER 2016 11 choice between Busuttil and Muscat. Secondly, it is a tried and tested formu- la. People know Muscat has betrayed the promise of clean and inclusive government and there is no one to hold him to account. Muscat got away with retaining Konrad Mizzi without any explosion of popular anger. The positive economic progress will secure the next electoral victory. Third, it is difficult for voters to trust the PN, with a bag- gage which will not be forgotten by the next election, with govern- ing again. So Busuttil may have everything to gain by courting an established small party like Alternat- tiva Demokratika and the nascent Partit Demokratiku into a real alliance for change, which must include concrete com- mitments for electoral reform apart from the good governance pledge. Just imagine giving voters the chance of voting for an alliance, with a pledge to end one-party governments. It may be ex- tremely unlikely for someone like Salvu Mallia to win a seat, but a pre-electoral agreement between two or more parties would facilitate the entry of new voices in parliament. Put simply, people will not be entirely convinced if a good governance pledge is made by Busuttil, but they would be more disposed to believe in it if it is endorsed by someone with the stature of Arnold Cas- sola, as a leader of an organised party with a 20-year history to defend. Such a coalition would allow people to vote for an "alliance" and not for the PN, making it easier for those with little faith in the PN to still vote for a change in gov- ernment. It is the only chance the PN has of being elected: convincing the electorate that it will be limiting its own power in government. A real coalition may be the best insurance policy for a sceptical elec- torate. By all means the PN needs to become once again the broad church it was in the 1980s, but it needs a constructive vision for the future. For who will join the coalition? Liberals, mili- tant Trotskyists and Mintoffian eurosceptics and conservatives? The PN must retain its centrist identity and sign up to a common platform with other parties: a vi- sion in line with the late Guido de Marco's own description of a 'centrist party that looks to the left'. Why a coalition is unlikely The prob- lem for coa- lition talks is that the PN finds any n e g o t i a - tions with a smaller party belit- tling, while AD itself would shun any association with the PN's baggage fear out of fear of contamination. Third parties are always 'safer' retaining their purity, than take risks that would destroy them. Powerful and influential lobbies would also resent any talk of coalition between the PN and AD, and PN candidates would not welcome intra-coalition competition from other candidates. And why should the PN join third par- ties when it can seduce individuals like Mallia, whose utility expires the moment the party is elected to power? It is exactly why a real coalition is the best insurance policy against the PN reverting to pre- 2013 mode once elected in power. Strategically, with polls showing Mus- cat likely to win another general election, small parties may also be wary of being seen as being part of a 'coalition of losers' and may prefer to emulate insurgent par- ties in other countries and put their hopes in a sudden change in electoral mood. An insurgent campaign may be tempt- ing for parties like Partit Demokratiku, led by the charismatic yet self-centred Marlene Farrugia, but success depends on sustaining a momentum in an electoral campaign where the two big parties al- ready enjoy many advantages. Farrugia has a practical touch (and cash) which third parties lack, and has already hinted she is open to a coalition although it is unclear whether she is pressing for any binding commitments from the PN before doing so. But would this move be her way of retaining her parliamentary seat, or would she press for fundamental reforms in Maltese democracy? A small party that has been around for a few weeks is obviously in a weaker position to strike a deal with a long-established party. AD may have more credibility and ex- perience but it lacks the fire to sustain a sudden burst of activism on the eve of a general election. At best this time round third parties may end up accommodating a larger parking space for disillusioned voters. But here they may well face competi- tion from the far-right, which is riding on widespread anti-establishment sentiment. The power to elect a government The problem for third parties is that peo- ple are unlikely to give up on the pow- ers granted to them by the present electoral system: the first-prefer- ence vote that determines who governs the country. Salvu Mallia's conversion to the PN is a case in point. He would rather have the power to bring Muscat down than bet on the third-party horse. Discon- tent with the two-party system is growing, but has it reached the point where people no longer care about choosing the lesser evil? Mal- lia's example will be used by the PN to lure voters, even third party voters, who see the need to vote for the PN after Panamagate. Realistically small parties can only en- ter parliament through a pre-elec- toral pact and on a common list with either Labour or the PN. With La- bour drifting to the right of the Na- tionalist Party on most issues except civil liberties, and with Muscat hav- ing no interest in sharing power with others, an alliance with the greens is out of the question. And judging by Busuttil's recent declarations (and past declarations by AD exponents) so is any coalition with the PN. The likely outcome of Busuttil's own insurgent strategy – which sees him trying to lure anyone opposed to La- bour – will be a more polarised election which may well see Muscat returned to power, probably with a slimmer major- ity. Although some will still vote for AD and the PD, many others will vote with a clothes peg on their noses, paving the way for Muscat's 'second republic' and Malta's transformation into a mini-Dubai. These are indeed high stakes, but the alternative presented by Busuttil remains unconvinc- ing. Thinking outside the box, Busuttil would give the PN a chance to return to power by convincing the electorate that it will be limiting its own power when in government. But it is a real coalition with other parties – and not a motley crew of individuals cheering Busuttil – which will be the best insurance policy for a sceptical electorate in voting for change. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Securing long-term democratic change means seeking formal alliances between different parties Discontent with the two-party system is growing News The first-preference vote threat: Salvu Mallia made a logical decision to switch to the party that represents the alternative option to bring about Labour's defeat. Right: Josie Muscat, a former Nationalist MP who formed a right-wing party in 2008, was present at the PN's Independence celebrations Although some will still vote for Arnold Cassola's AD and Marlene Farrugia's PD, many others will vote with a clothes peg on their noses, paving the way for Muscat's 'second republic' and Malta's transformation into a mini-Dubai. 'Caution' is watchword in Air Malta talks MIRIAM DALLI The government has no intention of rush- ing talks with Alitalia as Malta's national carrier continues to seek the best deal to ensure a stable future. Five months have elapsed since the gov- ernment announced Alitalia would acquire a 49% stake in Air Malta and, while ques- tions remain about what stage the nego- tiations have reached, Tourism Minister Edward Zammit Lewis is adamant that the slow pace of talks is "a cautionary measure" to ensure the best deal for the Maltese air- line. "Privatisation of airlines abroad took years… although we have no intention of prolonging the process, and we do want to close in the coming months, we don't want to hasten the negotiations. This situation requires one to be cautious," Zammit Lewis told MaltaToday. "We are not a government that decides on selling a bank overnight and wake up one morning and announce the privatisation." Air Malta has been undergoing a restruc- turing process costing some €230 million ever since it was given the green light for state aid under strict European Commis- sion rules. The acquisition comes at an important juncture for Air Malta, where low cost giant Ryanair is close to taking the majority mar- ket share of the incoming passenger market to Malta. Over the past months, the ministry for tourism and Air Malta's management en- gaged in talks with workers' representatives. The minister described these talks as having been pivotal in reaching agreements over "important guarantees", which took place after the airline did its costing. "One should appreciate that Air Malta was kept afloat, along with the guarantee that workers will not be laid off," he said. "I hope that no one is expecting us to hasten the talks, risking a deal that might be against the interest of Air Malta or the tourism in- dustry." Zammit Lewis said Air Malta had no in- tention of giving up its tourist network and certain red lines – such as workers' condi- tions – will not be crossed. "As a responsible government we are keeping all options open. We have an inter- est in closing the deal but not at the expense of the sector itself." Reiterating that he will come forward once he will have "something to commu- nicate", Zammit Lewis insisted on ensuring that the process remains transparent. "The interested parties, including the op- position, will be the first to know. But I do urge the opposition to be more serious in its declarations if it truly is after Air Malta's success." The opposition has in the past proposed the selling of the airline's shares, later pro- posing that local investors should contrib- ute to improve the airline's situation. The minister did not rule out the latter option. Expert advice by legal firm Camilleri Preziosi showed that Air Malta could not be floated on the stock exchange due to its financial predicament. The financial situation means that Air Malta cannot even qualify for a listing of its shares. "I hope that no one is expecting us to hasten the talks, risking a deal"