Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/977918
11 maltatoday SUNDAY 6 MAY 2018 MaltaToday Survey PN wins back some of its lost sheep but Labour is still miles ahead THE Labour Party will win by a landslide if an election is held now, despite the Nationalist Party regain- ing lost ground since Adrian Delia became leader. Support for the PL stands at 45.8%, down almost four points since March, a MaltaToday survey found. However, the party still enjoys a lead of nearly 14 points over the PN, which registered its highest result since Delia became leader in Sep- tember last year. Support for the PN stood at 32.1%, an increase of six points since March and up 10 points since October. With support for the PL now standing at the same level as last October, the shorter lead between both parties is a result of PN vot- ers returning to the fold after drift- ing away in the aftermath of Delia's election as leader. If the results are re-calculated on the basis of declared voting inten- tion by removing those who said they will not vote (10.4%) and those who are not sure (10.8%), the PL could be looking at support lev- els in the region of 58% and a gap of around 52,000 votes on the PN. Although this is higher than the vote difference registered in the last election, it represents a climb down from the stratospheric gap of 90,000 votes registered in the March sur- vey. The survey also shows that sup- port for the small political parties is insignificant. While the Demo- cratic Party does not feature in the results – a reversal of fortunes since the March survey – Alternattiva Demokratika and the Maltese Patri- ots Movement register a combined 1%. PN wins Gozo Gozo represents a glimmer of hope for the PN. It is the only re- gion in which the Opposition party has managed to make significant in- roads to beat the PL. The survey shows the PN enjoying the support of 43.5% in the island region, against the PL's 34.3%. This result emulates the trust barometer for both leaders. But the survey also shows the PN recovering valuable territory in the Northern Harbour region, which includes the traditionally blue local- ities of Sliema, St Julians and Swieqi. In this region, the parties are neck and neck (PN at 36.4% and PL at 36.2%) with the PL losing significant support since March. The results suggest the PN is re- gaining ground in its traditional districts but the resurgence remains fickle and very slow. The PL beats its rival in the Northern, South Eastern, Southern Harbour and Western regions. It obtains absolute majorities in the Western and the two southern re- gions. Its strongest showing (60.2%) is in the Southern Harbour region, made up of localities that are traditionally Labour leaning. PL ahead in all age groups The Labour Party also emerges as the strongest party across all age groups, with its strongest showing (56.5%) among those aged 51-65 and the elderly (55.6%). The PL's lowest result is in the age group between 18 and 35, where it registers the support of 37.7%. The PN's strongest showing is among the elderly (36.3%) and weakest among the young (30.4%). When analysed by the educational attainment of respondents, the PL emerges strongest among those with a primary and secondary edu- cation, and enjoys a slight edge over the PN among those with a post- secondary education. The PN is stronger than the PL among those with a tertiary educa- tion, scoring 33.7% against Labour's 30.1%. However, this category is also the one with the highest percentage of people who do not know who to vote for (16%) and who will not vote (19.5%). How will you vote? May 2018 PL 45.8%; PN 32.1% March 2018 PL 49.6%; PN 25.9% January 2018 PL 42%; PN 28.9% November 2017 PL 49.8%; PN 20.7% October 2017 PL 46%; PN 22% Trust barometer among different groups Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western Males Females 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post Sec Tertiary 34.3% 43.8% 15.2% 43.7% 22.0% 24.2% 40.9% 31.5% 23.8% 59.1% 14.3% 19.3% 59.6% 26% 12.3% 55.9% 29% 10.2% 48.2% 27.3% 18.0% 48.9% 27.2% 19.7% 40.7% 25.4% 26.1% 45.8% 21.3% 26.6% 56.3% 28.6% 11% 55.5% 36.4% 6.3% 57.3% 34% 7.6% 59.3% 24.6% 10.2% 41.5% 26.8% 23.5% 34.0% 28.2% 33.1% Muscat Delia Neither Don't know 45.8% -3.8pp 32.1% +6.2pp 0.7% -0.1pp 0.3% 0.3pp 10.8% -0.3pp 10.4% 0.2pp PL PN AD Patriots Don't know Won't vote Voters asked which political party they would vote for if a general election is held tomorrow Responses (%) shown with difference in percentage points over March 2018 Gap between parties is more than 50,000 votes ALL PL 2017 PN 2017 No vote 2017 Males Females 18-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western Primary Secondary Post Sec Tertiary PL PN AD Patriots Don't know No Vote 45.8% 32.1% 0.7% 0.3% 10.8% 10.4% 87.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 6.2% 3.5% 1.1% 76.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 9.4% 7.5% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 51.8% 45.3% 30.1% 0.4% 0.5% 12.1% 11.6% 46.4% 34.0% 1.0% 0.0% 9.4% 9.2% 37.7% 30.4% 2.0% 0.3% 12.3% 17.4% 38.0% 31.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 14.7% 56.5% 31.1% 0.0% 0.7% 8.0% 3.6% 55.6% 36.3% 0.6% 0.0% 5.6% 2.0% 34.3% 43.5% 0.0% 1.0% 8.8% 12.4% 41.5% 33.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 10.3% 36.2% 36.4% 1.3% 0.5% 12.6% 13.0% 54.3% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 8.6% 60.2% 26.1% 1.8% 0.0% 4.3% 7.6% 54.3% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 8.2% 58.1% 28.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 6.9% 56.4% 30.1% 0.3% 0.0% 7.8% 5.5% 37.9% 36.5% 2.7% 0.9% 11.9% 10.1% 30.1% 33.7% 0.4% 0.3% 16.0% 19.5% Voter preferences among different groups