Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1058684
maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 5 DECEMBER 2018 6 NEWS ANALYSIS JAMES DEBONO GODFREY Farrugia – a charis- matic and widely respected for- mer Health Minister and former Labour whip with deep roots in the community – should be en- joying a field day as leader of the Democratic Party. Unlike his firebrand partner Marlene he comes across as calm, moderate and measured. As a former Labour politician elected on the PN ticket, he may be singled out for inconsisten- cies like having voted against a motion of censure in Konrad Mizzi in 2016 but his political life story put him in league with floating voters. He can be a magnet for dis- gruntlement in Labour over corruption and environmental neglect and for that segment in the PN which does not feel represented in its current lead- ership. By outsmarting the PN and presenting its own motion of censure in Konrad Mizzi the Democratic Party has taken the centrestage, putting Delia in the uncomfortable position of hav- ing to ditch this motion not to play second fiddle to what was Simon Busuttil's junior coali- tion partner. Instead Delia pressed ahead with a motion calling for a pub- lic inquiry on Daphne Caruana Galizia's murder. The timing could not have been worse. On Sunday the Times reported that the police was investigating money-laundering activities by Soho companies of which Delia had been a legal representative, first revealed in Caruana Gali- zia's own blog. Immediately the PD increased the dose calling on the PN leader to suspend himself from leader of the Opposition. This may be a sign of the PD trying to assert itself in the political landscape since despite the ad- vantage of parliamentary rep- resentation, polls conducted over 2018 showed the Demo- cratic Party enjoying the same level of support as Alternattiva Demokratika. The party's fortunes may well change in the next months as more undecided people make up their mind on how to vote in next May's MEP elections but to do so it has to contend with the four reasons which have so far inhibited its growth. 1. Labour voters remain allergic to it Despite being represented in parliament by two former La- bour politicians, the party has never been a magnet for La- bour-leaning voters who may have qualms on Muscat's han- dling of Panamagate and his cosy ties with big business. One reason for this is that de- spite some discomfort on issues like governance and the envi- ronment, most of these voters remain loyal to the party. Sur- veys held before the latest 17 Black revelations only showed 9% of PL voters being undecid- ed or intent on not voting. But there may be a small segment of Labour voters which has had enough with impunity and cor- ruption and would be willing to support a new party, especially in a mid-term test where they could use their vote to clip the wings of the dominant party. The inability of the PD to tap in the Labour cohort of voters may well be due to the percep- tion of the Democratic Party as a faction of the PN. The fact that the party owes its two seats in parliament to a declared alliance with the PN in Busuttil's National Force may be one of the reasons why such voters are put off especially in view of the outcome of the Egrant inquiry. Another turn- off for these voters may be the party's identification with civil society groups associated with Caruana Galizia's legacy. For in its attempt to attract support among PN voters dis- gruntled by Delia but still loyal to Busuttil, the PD may be al- ienating potential support from the Labour side of the spectrum. In this way the PD often finds it- self running with the hares and hunting with the hounds, earn- ing the nods of PN supporters who resent Delia but winning little support from Labour. The PD still has to find a way to speak to both segments of potential voters in a reassuring way. Godfrey Farrugia comes closest to doing so due to the respect he still enjoys across the political spectrum. Yet he is vulnerable to criti- cism by Delia loyalists for hav- ing remained loyal to Labour until the eve of the 2017 elec- tion and for having previously voted against a previous motion of censure in Mizzi when Farru- gia served as Labour's whip. 2. Disgruntled Nationalist voters may still hope in change in their own party Surveys have shown that a significant portion of PN vot- ers in the 2017 election, remain in a state of suspended anima- tion, saying that they are either undecided or intent on not vot- ing in a forthcoming election. According to the latest Malta- Today survey these amount to 46% of PN voters in 2017. This suggests that the PD can still tap into a large pool of voters. This cohort may include vot- ers disillusioned by Delia and who are still loyal to the party's former leader. But it may also include voters suffering from electoral fatigue and middle of the road (MOR) voters who simply want a more credible leadership. Faced by MEP elec- tions in May some in this co- hort may be tempted to vote for the PD. This choice may be reinforced by news that Delia's links to Soho companies are now un- der investigation. But this is far from inevitable. The PN's menu also includes candidates palat- able for PN voters who resent Delia but fear an overwhelming Labour victory which they fear would crush the Opposition. PN voters may also have been turned off by the PD's post 2017 election behaviour, which first saw Marlene Farrugia hinting at an interest in the PN leadership and then the party forcing by- elections to make it more dif- ficult for Delia to take his seat after being elected PN leader. The PD risks over-reaching itself again by calling for Delia's resignation at the very moment when he is focusing on the cor- ruption issue in an attempt to re-unite his party. Another dis- advantage for the PD in these elections is that its menu of can- didates so far lacks household names and it still has to build a strong national profile for its two candidates; Anthony Butti- gieg and Martin Cauchi Inglott. This may change if the PD fields Godfrey Farrugia but if it does so the PD may risk burn- ing its best asset in an improb- able race for an MEP seat. 3. The Party is too angry for moderates… too bland for radicals Beyond a commitment to en- vironmental causes and good governance, the PD comes across as a run of the mill cen- trist party. It surely cannot be defined as an anti-system or populist party. This may put the PD at an advantage with mod- erate voters but some of these may be turned off by the party's association with the PN's more bellicose anti-Muscat wing. For example, by lashing at De- lia for a selfie taken with Mus- cat before a football match, the PD is limiting its support among the category of MOR voters who resent confronta- tional politics. The party is also associated with the conserva- tive stance of its two MEPs on embryo-freezing and their firm opposition to abortion. But unlike Delia, the PD MPs have voted for the domestic violence law and the five days of leave given to IVF patients, thus managing to come across as less conservative than the PN. Still memories of Marlene Farrugia expressing misgivings on the 'morning after' pill may still block progressive voters from considering this party as an option. The party has so far failed to leave a mark by confronting La- bour from the left on social and economic issues while over the past months it has also largely avoided the migration issue. The party's blandness is mir- rored in its choice of European allies; the ALDE alliance of pro- European centrist parties which is the third largest in the Euro- pean parliament. The party's bland centrism de- creases the chances of the party appealing to the small segment of leftwing voters who may still opt for AD or to migration-ob- sessed voters who may be more likely to opt for a far-right out- fit. While these two segments may well be minoritarian, they may include the largest number of voters who have backed third parties in past elections. 4. Mainstream voters have been traditionally wary of third parties The Democratic Party's ap- peal to MOR voters may be With the 17 Black scandal weighing on Muscat's credibility and increased turmoil in the Opposition after news of a money-laundering investigation on Delia's Soho links, the Democratic Party, which is already represented in parliament by two MPs, should be prospering. Why have polls so far not registered gains by this party and is this set to change? Four reasons why the Democratic Party has still not reaped the harvest