Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/441179
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 4 JANUARY 2015 11 MUSCAT'S mid-tem year will be a hard one: here governments are expected to take unpopular deci- sions that cannot be postpone to the eve of the next election and are bound to generate controversy. For the first time, Muscat will take decisions that will alienate a seg- ment of the population. Public transport Any deterioration of the service under new Spanish bus operator Autobuses de Leon will be square- ly blamed on Muscat's govern- ment, after having lambasted and ditreched the Arriva service and increasing subsidies to €23 mil- lion. While the low level of subsidy given to Arriva was the reason for its failure, by increasing subsidies Muscat has increased public ex- pectations for good service. Any sign of deterioration will be seen as a betrayal of their trust. Muscat may bank on the fact that Labour voters, likely to prevail among users of public transport due to social class factors, may be more tolerant towards mediocrity under a Labour government than under a PN government. This has been the case so far, following the deterioration in the service during the past months. On the other hand, an improved service will mean Muscat's gov- ernment can take credit for suc- ceeding on a matter where all past governments have failed: giving the country the public transport system it deserves. Immigration and the redneck vote Muscat's government is expected to enact an integration policy for migrants and to reform the deten- tion regime, two measures which are in marked contrast to the aborted pushback policy he cham- pioned in his first year of office. But Muscat will have to come to terms with that part of the elector- ate that applauded his pushback threats. In the absence of an im- provement of living conditions any upsurge in migration flows resulting from the replacement of Mare Nostrum by a downscaled EU operation, this segment of the population could become increas- ingly restless and more assertive in supporting pushbacks. On immigration Muscat's trade- off is between legitimacy among a minority of influential liberal and left-wing voters, and his populist appeal. The working class connection Muscat will increasingly be ex- pected to deliver in improving liv- ing standards of Maltese workers. While the last Budget included significant child benefits for those on minimum wage, the Budget left other categories of workers out in the cold and one of the lowest CO- LA increase in recent history. Labour's doublespeak on recipi- ents of social benefits also expose further contradictions. Voters who regard single mothers as profes- sional bums as suggested by the finance minister may be less will- ing to support Labour's welfare policies. And while Labour clamps down on precarious working con- ditions in the public sector, so far it has refrained from seeking better conditions in the private sector. In fact the number of workers relying on a part time job as their main job has continued to increase and has now reached the 15% mark. Reclaiming the moral high- ground Muscat may reclaim some of the moral high ground he lost during the Mallia saga, by taking the ini- tiative on democratic reforms and enacting constitutional checks and balances, which strengthen parlia- ment. This may be achieved by conven- ing the constitutional convention and embark on public consultation on these reforms. Muscat may also finally acknowl- edge that a reform of MP salaries is preferable to supplementing their incomes through public appoint- ments, which undermine their autonomy and independence. He may even seek to mend fences with the office of the Ombudsman after Manuel Mallia mishandled a disa- greement on an investigation on army promotions. One major test for Muscat would be that of presenting parliament with the full agreements with IIP agents Henley and Partners, Elec- trogas Ltd and Shanghai Electric. Hiding behind commercial sensi- tivity will bring back memories of the worst aspects of the previous administration. Muscat may choose to change the system of appointments by increasing parliamentary scrutiny and grilling of political appointees. He may well translate the trust in- vested in him by the electorate in reforms, which increase scrutiny and accountability. Still consti- tutional reform may be a double- edged sword. Muscat could use these reforms to enact a more presidential re- public where the Prime Minister is vested with new powers, includ- ing that of appointing unelected technocrats as ministers. This may ultimately result in strengthening Castille at the expense of political parties and parliament. Another major issue is whether the PM will seek consensus with the Opposition in devising the common rules of our democracy or whether he would seek to cir- cumvent it through a consultative referendum held before a bind- ing parliamentary vote instead of holding a referendum to ratify the consensus already reached in par- liament. One thing for sure is that 2015 is the last chance to commence a process of constitutional change which must be concluded by the end of 2016 before the next elec- toral campaign sets in. Re-appointing Mallia? One major challenge will be whether to give Mallia another public role or not. Muscat has already expressed his willingness to reappoint Mal- lia in another role but this would immediately re-open a can of worms, which the PM may prefer to keep closed. Muscat may well prefer not to re-open the Mallia chapter before the next election. One opportuni- ty for Muscat may be the expiry of Louis Galea's term as Malta's rep- resentative in the European Court of Auditors to give Mallia the kick upstairs – but Mallia may much more prefer taking the place of another minister appointed to this European post. If Mallia gets appointed to a new ministerial post, perhaps a member of the old Labour guard in a purge that started with the appointment of Marie Louise Coleiro Preca to the Presidency, this may see the government shifting further to the right. Reappointing Mallia will fuel speculation on the power he holds over Muscat; but it could be the price to pay to avoid the prospect of the former minister becoming a thorn in Muscat's side. The spring hunting referendum If it gets the green light from the Constitutional Court on 9 Janu- ary, it will be hard for the PM to abstain from a debate on this is- sue. He will have to weigh the sup- port the hunting lobby gave him in 2013 and 2014, against the cost of alienating middle of the road vot- ers who resent the blackmail of the hunting lobby. Hunting is one of those few is- sues where the contradictions in Muscat's hegemonic block come to the fore. Here the PM balances his bias in favour of the hunting and trapping community by increasing fines and penalties against hunting irregularities. Undoubtedly, his de- cision to suspend the last autumn season following a spate of illegali- ties was clearly conditioned by the inevitability of the referendum. Indeed, he could actually help the hunting lobby by adopting iron fist at the first sign of illegality dur- ing the spring hunting season pre- ceding the referendum. In this way he would send the message that hunting may be retained in spring without the rampant abuse, which characterised it in the past. This time around, the hunting lobby may play to Muscat's tune in an extreme bid to convince the electorate they are law-abiding members of the community – un- less voters show scepticism at a show of force a few weeks before a referendum. It is unlikely that Muscat would invest his energy in a lost cause. He may well seek to compensate the hunting community for the loss of spring hunting by defying the Eu- ropean Commission on trapping and through further concessions for hunters like the proposed am- nesty for owners of stuffed birds. The abolition of spring hunting may also embolden environmen- talists and civil society in the face of the government's pandering to minority interest groups. But a defeated referendum would signify a mortal blow to civil soci- ety activism and pave the way for a backlash and roll-back of environ- mental regulations. The local elections test On the same day of the refer- endum Muscat faces a round of local elections he had initially wanted to postpone to 2019, hoping to avoid any electoral test before the 2018 election. Retaining his 55% majority in what probably could be his most difficult year is going to be a challenge. Any signs of a recovery by the Opposition may dent the perception that Muscat cannot be beaten. Muscat could be bold in transforming the local contest into one with a national significance in a bid to vanquish the PN, or simply emphasise the local nature of the vote in a bid to minimise the significance of any opposition gains. The energy saga Muscat has already postponed the deadline for the LNG plant frmo March 2015 deadline to June 2016. Any further delay may seri- ously dent the people's trust in his government. So far, the govern- ment has been opaque in explain- ing how the delay will have no bearing on the public coffers. But Labour will still honour its pledge to reduce bills for busi- nesses, which on its own may stimulate the Maltese economy in the coming months. Any such boost in economic growth – coupled with revenue from the IIP scheme – may well buy Muscat more time in his bid to avoid spending cuts or increases in taxation. Delegitimising the Opposition 2015 will make it difficult to Muscat to re-exhume past scandals every time he is in dif- ficulty. He will be expected to act like a Prime Minister and take responsibility for his deci- sions. Even though Muscat wins the popularity contest against Simon Busuttil hands down, the latter's stature has grown during the past months, especially in his Budget speech in the aftermath of Malliagate – this may not yet be reflected in the polls but may have given renewed confidence to core PN voters. And instilling confidence among core PN voters is the necessary first step for any vanquished oppo- sition. So Muscat will face a Busut- til who has grown in stature and may well be a harder nut to crack than anticipated. Busuttil remains vulnerable as he represents continuity with a scandal-ridden PN administra- tion. Muscat can unleash all his ammunition on Busuttil to thwart any PN recovery but the electorate may well see this as a sign of panic and an attempt to delegitimise the opposition. timately while weakening the opposition, Muscat may end up conjuring the spectre of "anti- politics" – that growing aversion with conventional politics which is contributing to the rise of populist right wing politicians in other EU member states. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Malta in 2015 Joseph Muscat's big tests in 2015