Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/441179
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 4 JANUARY 2015 10 Malta in 2015 Prime Minister Joseph Muscat has so far defied the law of diminishing returns, retaining a substantial poll advantage over opposition leader Simon Busuttil. But will Malliagate signify the beginning of a steady decline in trust or will Muscat draw the lessons from this episode to recover the moral high ground he may have lost? HIS 35,000-vote margin at the European elec- tions meant Joseph Muscat managed to extend his honeymoon by a few more months. With various opinion polls suggesting he retains a substantial advantage over Opposition leader Simon Busuttil, his government's popularity is even confirmed by the European Commis- sion's Eurobarometer survey – all suggesting that Muscat has not only managed to consoli- date his hold on Maltese society by retaining Labour's 2013 majority but is still making fur- ther inroads into the PN's traditional elector- ate. It suggests that in government Labour has not only kept liberals on board through the introduction of civil unions and the proposed liberalisation of drug laws but may have made further inroads in sectors which normally backed the PN, such as the business commu- nity and the construction industry. Now it may be benefiting from being per- ceived as the natural party of government and the dispenser of patronage – a factor which benefited PN governments between 1987 and 2008. Their perceived invincibility, perpetu- ated by opinion polls, now brings on board former Nationalists who would rather join them. Because they can't beat them. Beneath the veneer of popularity Muscat's reluctance to sack Manuel Mallia may well not have resulted in any substan- tial loss in popularity but certainly lost him the high moral ground he enjoyed in the past two years. Favourable surveys could easily fool Labour into self-congratulation and fail to ad- dress underlying ailments. Beneath the veneer of high ratings, public reactions to the shootout involving Mallia's driver indicate the first unequivocal signs of dissatisfaction. A MaltaToday poll suggested that only a relative majority of 39% wanted Mallia to resign. But the same poll suggested that an overwhelming majority of university educated respondents (65%), and switchers (53%) wanted Mallia to go at a time when Muscat was still defending the disgraced min- ister. For some the sense of omnipotence felt by Mallia's driver was symptomatic of an "any- thing goes culture" which sees members of the new elite not only occupying all the public boards under the sun, but also tweaking regu- lations and policies in spheres, like land-use planning, for their own private ends. These signs may not be reflected in opin- ion polls for two main reasons. One reason is that the electorate has yet to perceive the Opposition and its leader as a viable or credible alternative to a system which predates Muscat's ascent to power. Another is that switchers who have invested their trust in Muscat in the last general election may still be giving the PM the benefit of the doubt. It's this personal trust factor that may make Muscat immune to the mishaps of his increasingly sloppy ministers. Just as in pre-modern monarchies, the third estate is more likely to blame the nobility or the ministers while ab- solving the king of complicity in their misdeeds. And it is this that raises the prospect of the new Labour govern- ment as a sort of benevolent but self- perpetuating regime – a more popular and powerful version of the much-ma- ligned GonziPN. This comes with a risk because Muscat may get all the blame when people start feeling that their trust has been betrayed, an inevi- table process but which may take a very long time to develop. But this moment of rapture remains an elusive one for an opposi- tion which has been expecting Muscat's mask to fall for the past year but has always ended up with egg on its face. Muscat's long honeymoon Sure enough, boosted by a nine-seat majority Muscat has enjoyed one of the long- est honeymoons in recent Maltese political history. It is reminiscent of the consensus created around Nationalist Party policies between 1987 and 1992, where Ed- die Fenech Adami – with only a wafer-thin one-seat major- ity – enjoyed widespread support to liberalise the Maltese economy while retaining Min- toff's welfare state. The same may apply to Muscat's ability to combine neoliberal eco- nomics (like the sale of pass- ports and the p r i v a t i s a t i o n of energy) with secularism and new universal welfare benefits like free childcare. With a strong economy that reassures the electorate, Muscat's other chief merit is his respect for public opinion, which gives him humility when compared to the stubborn Gonzi, even if this attitude may re- flect Muscat's obsession with retaining popu- larity at all costs. And yet, not only has he managed to weather several storms but he also managed to connect with public opinion even in cases where he was initially caught on the wrong foot by the opposition. His greatest asset is his flexibility, his ability to withdraw and change tack whenever cor- nered: scrapping the secrecy clause of the In- dividual Investors Programme or abandoning plans to postpone the local elections to 2019 in what was interpreted as a cunning move to decrease turnout in the hunting referendum. Only in his reluctance to sack Mallia did he appear weak. For although ultimately he did capitulate to public opinion, Muscat did so half-heartedly. Whether Muscat will learn from this mistake to be able to hold his ground in the next year, may well prove to be the most difficult for him due to a number of ap- pointments and deadlines. After his honeymoon, Muscat faces a difficult mid-term By James Debono