Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/457075
maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 4 FEBRUARY 2015 5 CONTINUES FROM PAGE 1 This dis- pels the fear that the referendum turnout will be lower than the 50% needed for the result to be bind- ing. In fact the survey indicates that pro hunting voters may be keener on voting than those who are op- posed to spring hunting. In fact among respondents who are sure to vote 45.1 % will vote yes while 42.7% will vote no, translat- ing into a 2.4 point gap, which is one point higher than the 1.4 gap registered in the survey when all respondents are accounted for. But among those who are not sure of voting but think they will probably vote, it is the 'no' voters who prevail. In fact among this category 42.5% intend to vote against spring hunting while 27.5% intend voting yes. This sug- gests that spring hunt- ing is more of a do or die issue for 'yes' voters, who are more certain of voting. But the survey suggests that the 'no' will prevail if all those who are presently saying that they will probably vote turn up at the booth on referendum day. In fact when only voters who are sure to vote and those who will probably vote are taken into ac- count, it is the 'no' camp, which enjoys a small ad- vantage of half a per- centage point. This suggests that while it is vital for the no camp to mobi- lise all its potential voters, the yes camp may benefit from a lower turnout. Moreover a clear directive by the hunters' lobby urging supporters of spring hunting to vote yes may further tip the balance in their fa- vour. This is because among those who probably won't vote, there are more potential yes voters than no voters. In this category while 25.7% would vote yes, only 23% will vote no. Still the majority of these voters are ei- ther undecided or not interested in the issue. Moreover those who are presently sure of not voting may also include a reserve of pro hunting voters. This is because the survey shows that the majority of respondents who presently intend not voting in the referendum are Labour voters who are more inclined to be pro hunting. While 33% of respondents who are presently sure of not voting in the referendum had voted PL in 2013, only 7% voted PN. The survey indicates that the best scenario for the Yes vote is one where all those who are say- ing they will probably vote will do so while those who are presently intent on not voting remain of the same opinion. On the other hand the best sce- nario for the No camp is one where many of those saying that they will probably vote end up staying away from the booth on referendum day while some of those who are pres- ently intent on not voting change their mind and cast a yes vote. Divorce parallels Turnout in the divorce referen- dum stood at 72%. Previous MaltaToday surveys had shown that 71% were sure of voting on referendum day while 15% said they would probably vote. This indicates that the number of those who state that they will be voting tends to be higher than the actual number of those who turn out. Another interesting parallel be- tween the divorce and hunting referendums is that support for the spring hunting ban and divorce legislation started at around 58% to 60%. But this support dipped first to 41% and than to 36% in the first weeks of the campaign. A survey carried out in May 2011 showed the anti divorce camp tak- ing a slight one point lead over the pro divorce campaign. But surveys correctly showed the pro divorce camp gaining ground in the last weeks of the campaign. An extrapolation of the last sur- vey carried by MaltaToday showed the pro divorce camp winning by 52%, just one point lower than the actual 53% on d-day. Methodology The survey was held between Monday 26 and Thursday 29 Janu- ary. The results were weighed to ref lect the age and gender balance of the population and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. A total of 864 respondents were contacted by telephone. The sur- vey was stopped when a 600 quota sample was reached. News 'No' will prevail if all those who are presently saying that they will probably vote turn up How sure are you of voting in the Spring hunting referendum? Will certainly vote 71.5 Will probably vote 13.3 Will probably not vote 5.8 Will certainly not vote 7.2 No Reply 2.2 Voting intentions among those who probably will not be voting in referendum yes to retain spring hunting 25.7 no against spring hunting 22.9 not voting 17.1 don't know 31.4 no reply 2.9 Voting intentions among those who are sure of voting or who will be probably voting Certainly vote Probably vote Total of those who will certainly or probably vote Yes to retain spring hunting 45.1 27.5 42.4 No against spring hunting 42.7 42.5 42.8 Not voting 0 0 0 Don't know 11.7 27.5 14.3 No reply 0.5 2.5 0.5 probably vote, it is the 'no' voters who prevail. In fact among this category 42.5% intend to vote against spring hunting while 27.5% intend ing is more of a do or die issue for 'yes' voters, who are more certain of But the survey suggests that the 'no' will prevail if all count, it is the 'no' camp, which enjoys a small ad- vantage of half a per- centage point. This suggests that while it