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maltatoday, SUNDAY, 22 FEBRUARY 2015 10 THE gruesome videotaped beheadings of 21 Egyp- tian Christians on a Libyan beach may well be the Is- lamic State's (also known as IS, ISIS or ISIL) invitation to foreign powers to inter- vene in Libya. The air strikes Cairo launched in response followed a script written by a group whose role in Libya was marginal up until a few months ago. Not only does generating chaos fit well with the group's apocalyptic interpretation of Islam. It also suits the group's political strategy. While it remains unclear whether ISIS in Libya is a di- rect export of the Caliphate in Iraq and Syria, or a home- grown franchise that has adopted the ISIS brand, its numbers have swelled by ar- rivals from Iraq and Syria in Spring 2014, spurred on by the establishment of ISIS's caliphate last summer. But even though the group is getting stronger inside Lib- ya, its strength is sometimes overstated. It does not even control all of Derna, its birthplace, where rival groups like the Abu Salim Martyrs Brigade still play a major role. It faces competition from other well-entrenched Islamist groups, and Libya lacks the sectarian divide be- tween Sunni and Shiite, that has fed the civil wars in Syria and Iraq. And so far, ISIS has not gained control over the oil fields, even if some of its attacks have targeted oil fields. Even Al Qaeda still wields more influence in Libya than IS, and still appears to hold a more pragmatic aim than bringing on the apocalypse, perhaps to settle on Libya becoming a sort of 'Gulf-style' Sunni emirate. Like David Koresh but bigger… Islamic State's particular brand is its cultish-ness and eerily millenari- anism. "The loaded language, myth crea- tion, and strict ideology mean that the members are not participating in what we would call the real world. They live in an imaginary world in which jihadi heroes prepare for the apocalypse," writes Marita Le Palm in Foreign Policy Journal. Deciphering ISIS theology is im- portant in avoiding alarmist con- clusions. In the Coptic beheadings, the ISIS commander says "And we will conquer Rome by Allah's Permission." But this is not the Italian capital but defeat of the Christian armies in a future battle to take place in Dabiq, in Syria. In this eschatological vi- sion, as recounted by Geame Wood in The Atlantic, ISIS believes that after its victory in Dabiq, the caliphate will expand and sack Istanbul. But an anti-Messiah, known in Muslim apocalyptic literature as Dajjal, will come from the Khorasan region of eastern Iran and kill a vast number of the caliphate's fighters, until just 5,000 remain, cornered in Jerusalem. Just as Dajjal pre- pares to finish them off, Jesus – the second-most-revered prophet in Islam – will return to Earth, spear Dajjal, and lead the Muslims to vic- tory. In contrast to ISIS, the more en- trenched Muslim Brotherhood that which wields influence on the Tripoli government, belongs to a completely different mind- set, one which seeks the Islamisation of society through the imposition of Shari'a law – but through constitutional and parlia- mentary means. While in neighbouring Tunisia a political party with roots in the Muslim Brotherhood handed over the reins of power peace- fully after being defeated in a democratic election, the Brotherhood in Egypt was ousted from power by a mil- itary coup. Which is why Graeme Wood assimilates ISIS to cult terrorist organisations like David Koresh and Jim Jones – of the Waco and Jonesville massacres respec- tively – with the singular difference that they wield absolute power over not just a few hundred people, but some eight million. But not to be underesti- mated is ISIS's proven ability to act politically and strate- gically, and govern millions of people through a mixture of fear, consent and sectarian alliances in Iraq and Syria. Neither is it incapa- ble of political pragmatism: in Iraq it was able to ally itself with Baathist (of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party) Sunni insurgents to take over cities like Tikrit and Falluja. Inviting the crusaders to war ISIS's strategy in Libya to provoke a foreign in- tervention would be its route of giving other Is- lamic groups no option but to join them in expel- ling the invader. Provok- ing Europe to intervene in Libya would enable ISIS to play the nationalist card. Resentment against the presence of foreigners in Libya is so strong that even during their revolt against Gaddafi, Libyan insurgents were adamant in refusing any foreign boots on the ground. The Coptic beheadings has at- tracted Egyptian retaliation, perhaps in a bid to force all jihadist groups and even moderate Islamists to unite against a foreign invader. In this sense ISIS plays on Libya rivalries to create their ideal apocalyptic scenario: the arrival of the crusading armies in an- other Muslim state. Yet as the Middle East experts and Independent columnist Robert Fisk observes, ISIS's own brutality may now have backfired, creating a new Arab military alliance to bomb it out of existence. Burning Jordan's cap- tured pilot provoked 56 air strikes from Jordan, and the Coptic murder brought Abdel Fattah al-Sisi into the war. What could be bad news for Sisi is that in his game of conflating ISIS with the Muslim Brotherhood ad- herents he has thrown into jail, his air strikes could encourage the re- cruitment of Muslim Brotherhood to ISIS. And then again, there is the chance that ISIS's role in Libya is being hyped by the very regional powers who seek intervention. "ISIS is a serious threat to Cairo, but in one sense it is also an opportunity," says Shashank Joshi, a research fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London. "This week's strikes are likely to lend international legitimacy to Egypt's Libya policy by associating its broad support for the Tobruk gov- ernment and General Khalifa Haftar with its specific actions against ISIS." jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt News Islamic State wants to see the Libyan civil war pushing Muslim jihadists into a unified army against foreign intervention. JAMES DEBONO on the fast-changing landscape in the North African conflict The Tobruk government The eastern city of Tobruk hosts the House of Rep- r e s e n t a t i v e s led by Prime M i n i s t e r Abdullah al- Thinni, rec- ognised by most of the international c o m m u n i t y . Libya's new par- liament, dominated by self-styled secular and national- ist candidates, was formed after the heavy defeat of Islamist candidates in June elections. The House moved to Tobruk after armed groups support- ive of the General National Congress began to overrun the capital. The Tripoli government Fighters under Libya Dawn (Fajr Libya), an umbrella of several armed groups, took control of the capital's Bringing on the (Libyan) apocalypse Abullah Al thinni Making sense Egyptian strongman ex-Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al Sisi (top) put the democratically elected Mohammed Morsi (left) of the Muslim Brotherhood behind bars. By conflating the Brotherhood with ISIS, which hates the previous, he risks pushing them into conversion to align themselves against foreign invaders Dabiq: the Islamic State's magazine is named after the city where Jesus's second coming will avenge the Muslim forces under attack by the antichrist 'Dajjal' Faith unto death: Jim Jones and David Koresh led extremist Christian cult movements, wielding absolute power over their followers and finally provoked end-time clashes that ended up in death