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maltatoday, SUNDAY, 23 APRIL 2017 11 News dates who stand a chance of go- ing through to the second round. Apart from Macron and Le Pen, the top contenders include leftist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the two candidates repre- senting the mainstream parties, conservative former-Prime Min- ister François Fillon and socialist and former education minister Benoit Hamon. On the far right, the National Front's Marine Le Pen appears to have achieved more electoral success since distancing herself from some of her father's more extreme xenophobic policies – a process she has termed "de-de- monisation." Latest opinion polls show Le Pen is ahead of the other four candidates in the first round – though a long way short of 50% - and is therefore likely to get through to the run-off. In 2002, the Front National founder Jean- Marie Le Pen got through to the second round, but lost to Jacques Chirac as Socialist voters rallied around the Republican candidate to keep the far-right ex- tremist out of the Élysée Palace. The anti-establishment Le Pen has pledged to end immigra- tion, slash crime, eradicate Is- l a m i s m , pull France out of Europe and save it from globalisation. Her campaign's main slogan is 'in the name of the people' and Le Pen has said her "economic nationalism" will benefit French business, while her Trumpesque "France- first" policies in housing, health, education and employment will favour French people. Opinion polls currently suggest Marine Le Pen would be defeated in the second round by Emmanuel Macron, a former invest- ment banker running as an independent centrist and at 39, he has a real chance of becoming France's youngest-ever presi- dent. Without the backing of a traditional po- litical party, the former economy minister, who has never held an elected office, has promised a bit of everything to everyone. His optimistic campaign and his calls for a total renewal of the French governing class have proved to be popular, especially with younger voters. He has pledged to help farmers, industry, employers, workers and entrepreneurs. His proposals include tax cuts alongside support for those on low incomes. Among others he has promised a €50 billion public investment plan to cover infrastructure, job-training and end the dependence on coal and shift to renew- able energy. The previous front-runner, centre-right Republican Francois Fillon, has lost pole position following allegations his wife and children were paid public money for jobs they never had. Prosecutors have launched a full judicial inquiry into the affair but he has survived an attempt within his party to replace him as candidate. Despite the setback, Fillon has consolidated his base in recent weeks, nota- bly by moving further right on social issues, even hinting that he would give cabinet posts to leaders of a group of conservative Christians established to oppose same-sex marriage. An Anglophile who admires Margaret Thatcher, Fillon has described France as "bankrupt" and pledged to slash the num- ber of state workers by up to 600,000 in five years to fund €40 billion in tax breaks for companies and cuts in state spending. Socialist and former education minister Benoit Hamon, with a reputation as a left- wing rebel entered the presidential contest as a rank outsider as the candidate repre- senting the highly unpopular incumbent Francois Hollande's party. A fervent critic of austerity policies, Ha- mon wants to usher in radical reforms to the welfare system by introducing a basic income for all citizens of €750 a month and reducing the working week to 32 hours. Hamon has also pledged the le- galisation of cannabis and con- demned rhetoric on the role of Islam in French society. Of the five major candidates for the presidency, the pro-EU Hamon is currently at the back of the pack with fellow leftist Jean-Luc M é l e n c h o n , threatening the f r o n t r u n n e r s with a late surge in sup- port. M é l e n c h o n has the backing of the French Communist Party and stood un- successfully for the presidency in 2012. The flamboyant and impassioned leader of La France Insoumise (Untamed France) has among others promised to cut the work- ing week, lower the retirement age, raise the minimum wage and social security benefits, and tax top earners at 90%. He also wants to abandon nuclear power, abolish the presidential regime of the Fifth Republic, and in foreign affairs withdraw from Nato, develop warmer ties with Rus- sia, and renegotiate the terms of France's EU membership – with the promise of an in-out referendum. What are main issues? The Paris and Nice terror attacks that hundreds of lives in 2015 and 2016 weigh heavily on this election and have helped Le Pen drag the agenda onto her preferred ground of security, immigration, Islam and national identity. Morover, Le Pen and Mélenchon have turned the election into a referendum on the country's relationship with the EU, with both questioning France's place within the bloc. Polls have shown that less than half of the French people have a positive view of the EU. Even if France doesn't go down the road taken by the UK, a Le Pen presidency could mean the country pulls out of the euro — a move that could trigger a major financial crisis on the continent. But this election is also, and perhaps mostly, about the persistent malaise of a country whose economy has stagnated for years now and where unemployment is stuck stubbornly above 10%, higher than in most European Union countries. France is still feeling the aftershocks of the 2008 financial crisis and there is growing anger at the inefficiency and excessive bureaucracy of the French state. What are the polls saying? In the Elabe poll, which was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, both Fillon and Mélenchon were seen narrowing Macron and Le Pen's lead over them. According to the poll published on Friday, Macron leads the way with 24% followed by Le Pen is with 21.5%. The two front- runners are closely followed by Fillon on 20% and Mélenchon on 19.5%. Hamon polled at 8%. Looking ahead to the second round, the Elabe poll suggests Macron would defeat any of the other three leading in the run off, receiving 65% of the votes in head-to-heads against both Le Pen and Fillon, and 59% against Mélenchon. If Mélenchon makes it to the runoff, he is projected to beat both Le Pen and Fillon by comfortable margins but falls short against Macron. How does it work? The two-round system, also used in parliamentary, local and regional polls, was introduced in 1962 by Charles de Gaulle with the intention of keeping extremists out of power. This is an exceptional election because there is a very real possibility that neither of the traditional centre-right and centre- left parties that have governed France since the 1950s will be represented in the run-off. The two round system means that the candidate who wins the first round does not necessarily win the presidency. If no candidate gains half the vote in the first round, the top two candidates will then face off in a second run-off on 7 May. This is a near certainty, as the sheer number of candidates on the ballot restricts the chance of a majority in the first round. Of the nine elections since the first direct presidential election in the Fifth Republic in 1965, three have seen the winner of the first round lose out in the second. This led to the elections of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing in 1974, François Mitterrand in 1981 and Jacques Chirac in 1995. POLLS ROUND 1 % Emmanuel Macron 24 Marine Le Pen 23 François Fillon 19.5 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18 Benoit Hamon 8 Others 7.5 SOURCE: ELABE SECOND ROUND Hypothesis 1 Emmanuel Macron 62 Marine Le Pen 38 Hypothesis 2 François Fillon 57 Marine Le Pen 43 Hypothesis 3 Emmanuel Macron 65 François Fillon 35 Hypothesis 4 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 58 Marine Le Pen 42 Hypothesis 5 Emmanuel Macron 59 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 41 Hypothesis 6 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 57 François Fillon 43 SOURCE: ELABE Emmanuel Macron appears best placed to to defeat Marine Le Pen A victory for Jean-Luc Mélenchon could spell the end of the euro and of the EU as we know it François Fillon served as Prime Minister for five years between 2007 and 2012