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maltatoday, SUNDAY, 7 MAY 2017 9 MaltaToday Survey 41% 36.3% 12.3% 10.4% 3.5pp 2.3pp -2.9pp -2.8pp CHANGE OVER 30 APRIL 2017 Trust barometer: Who do you trust between Joseph Muscat and Simon Busuttil? Don't know None JOSEPH MUSCAT SIMON BUSUTTIL DON'T KNOW NONE PN voters in 2013 PL voters in 2013 Switchers PN voters in 2008 PL voters in 2008 2.2% 86.1% 78.8% 8.1% 43.1% 25.9% 19% 12% 10.7% 72.8% 9.8% 86.5% Labour's past voters deliver polls boost JAMES DEBONO THE first week of the campaign has seen a retrenchment of voters behind the party leaders, both of whom have seen a surge in their trust rating. When asked which of the two leaders they trust most, 36.3% chose Busuttil while 41% chose Muscat. Compared to last week Busuttil has gained 2.3 points while Muscat has gained 3.5 points. But Muscat's gains are mainly limited to the Labour co- hort of 2013 voters. In fact among Labour voters in 2013, Muscat has seen his trust rating increase from 73.7% to 78.8%. On the other hand Busuttil's trust rating has increased by only a point among PN voters in 2013. While gaining less than Muscat, the PN leader now registers his highest ever trust rating since being elected PN leader. He also makes some inroads among Labour voters in 2008, 5% of whom trust him more than Muscat. The gains by both party leaders are corresponded by a drop among those who trust neither. The survey shows the Green Party registering only 0.4%, the worst poll re- sult since 2013. MaltaToday's latest survey was carried out after the May 1st mass meetings, which saw the Labour leader an- nounce the election date. The survey shows the PL leading by 3.2 points, which is slightly less than the margin enjoyed by the PL in surveys held in March and a week before the start of the cam- paign. Muscat's trust rating still remains 2 points lower than it was in March. The survey, in which 650 respondents were contacted by telephone and accepted to participate, was carried out between Tuesday, 2 May and Friday, 5 May. Although still within the survey's 3.8-point margin of error, the three-point difference between the two parties has been consistent in the past three MaltaToday surveys. As regards voting intentions, the survey shows the PN increasing its support by 1.3 points and Labour by 1 point. The survey shows that the announced fusion of the PN and the PD had a small impact on the survey. While the combined vote of the parties last week amounted to 33.6%, in this survey the PN gets 34.2%, an increase of 0.6%. But the gap between Labour and the PN-led coali- tion has remained the same. In the survey nearly 4% of PN voters said they would be voting for the PD candidates included in the PN list. An extrapolation of the survey after eliminating 'don't knows' and non-voters would put the PL at 51.9% and the PN at 47.4%, a gap of 4.6 points. AD would get 0.6%. 5% of PL voters switching to PN The survey shows the PL leading by 3.2 points, down from 3.6 points last week. The difference is within the +/- 3.8 point margin of error which means that both parties may be in the lead. But the survey confirms inroads made by the PN among Labour voters in the last election. But in a sign of re- trenchment the survey also shows a decrease in voters switching from one side to another although the swing remains favourable to the PN. While 5.3% of PL voters in 2013, only 0.9% of PN voters in 2013 will now vote for the PL. Last week the survey showed 8.2% of PL voters switching to the PN and 4.5% of PN voters switching to the PL. This suggests that the PN has managed to block the haemorrhage of votes to the PL. This may be a positive sign for the PN because previ- ous surveys always showed the PL partly offsetting PN gains by winning a segment of former Nationalist voters. This suggests that recent events have blocked PL inroads among PN voters. The survey also registers an increase of undecided vot- ers among switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013. The percentage of switchers who will be voting La- bour drops from 44% last week to 34% now. But only 20% (down from 28% last week) will vote PN. The percentage of undecided switchers has increased from 21% to 33%. The survey also confirms the existence of a new catego- ry of switchers, those who have voted Labour in 2008 and who have now switched to the PN. These amount to 3% of PL voters in the 2008 general election. Of strategic importance is the PN's advantage among non-voters in the 2013 general election. Among this cat- egory while 20% will vote PN only 9% will vote PL. On the other hand Labour enjoys a four-point lead among new voters. Significantly 31% of new voters say that they will not be voting. AD gets its best score among new voters (3.7%). CONTINUES PAGES 10-11 Little change over the past week, with Muscat widening trust lead by a point, thanks to a boost from past Labour voters, which then put the PL's lead to 3.2 points, down from 3.6 points