Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1124848
10 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 2 JUNE 2019 MALTA'S electoral map has assumed a darker shade of red, with deep blue localities now largely restricted to the more affluent north harbour and northern regions. In the mean- time Labour has spread its tentacles beyond its southern strongholds, making substan- tial gains in central Malta, the rural north and parts of Gozo. But this decline did not hap- pen all of a sudden in this par- ticular election. Mqabba, a south-western lo- cality that used to be National- ist-leaning, best represents the predicament of the PN in the past two decades. In this local- ity the PL has grown from a 47% minority in 1999 to a 64% ma- jority now, a gain of 17 points. Another indicative case study is the Gozitan locality of Xaghra where the PN's vote has dropped by a staggering 20 points between 2004 and 2019. Xaghra indicates that problems in Gozo have aggravated under Delia, with the party's percent- age dropping by 7 points be- tween 2015 and 2019. In an evident sign of demo- graphic decline, urban centres in the south like Fgura saw the PN's support fall from 36% at the dawn of the millennium, to just 25% now. Although this drop has been in motion for at least the past decade, the process has accel- erated. Compared to the pre- vious elections, Labour gained over five points in Birzebbugia (+6), Fontana (+14), Mqabba (+7), Qrendi (7 points), Dingli (+6), Zejtun (+4), all localities where Labour already enjoyed a majority of over 55%. Even in Bormla where Labour was al- ready at 81% in 2015, it could still grow by a further 3 points in this round of elections. However, in many localities the party's problems date back to the Gonzi years. In fact, the general impression is that the party's problems hark back to the identity crisis which gripped the party after fulfill- ing its mission to get Malta in the EU. This problem may have been compounded by a growing detachment between the party and the southern part of the is- land, which was also reflected in a decrease in parliamentary representation from southern districts once dominated by heavyweights like Louis Galea and Ninu Zammit. In Mqabba, the party lost eight points be- tween 2008 and 2013 and seven points between 2013 and 2019. The pattern of decline is not uniform in all localities. In St Paul's Bay, a small recov- ery registered in the Busuttil era (2015) was scuppered in last week's election. The same pat- tern can be observed in Mosta and Siggiewi where the party gained ground in 2015, only to experience a decline in this election. The party's decline was more contained in locali- ties like Rabat, where the party lost its majority in 2003 and only slipped one point from its support in 2009. Significantly Labour also con- solidated its lead in localities in central Malta which were PN- leaning till 2004. In Santa Ven- era the PL gained a further six points over 2013 to see its shaky majority of 53% rise to a more reliable majority of 59%. In Birkirkara, the home of for- mer PN leader Eddie Fenech Adami, whose son Michael once held the mayorship, and also home to the football club whose president Delia once was, the PN fell to a record low of 44% from 60% in 2000. The most dramatic decline was seen in Pietà where the PN support dropped from 55% in 2000 to 31% now. The decline in this locality was more pronounced in recent years with the party losing a staggering 17 points between 2013 and 2019. In this way some pale red lo- calities and marginal localities are increasingly assuming a darker shade of red. The cherry on the cake for Labour was its first ever win in Valletta. In the capital city Labour increased its vote by 5 points over 2013. Labour also gained ground in a few PN strongholds like Balzan (+4) and Swieqi (+4) even if the PN had a better re- tention of votes in more afflu- ent strongholds. For example, in Lija the PN still managed to gain four points over its 2013 result in which the PN had lost votes to an independent list. One major question is wheth- er the PN's losses are mostly due to a shift towards Labour or to a drop in turnout which may have been more pronounced among PN voters. There can be no definitive answer to this question especially because comparisons are skewed by the fact that the previous round coincided with the 2013 gen- eral elections (which led to an abnormally large turnout) and with the hunting referendum in 2015 which may have bolstered the turnout both in PN-leaning 'anti-hunting' localities and PL- leaning 'pro-hunting' localities. But the drop in turnout did not always result in a sharp drop in the PN vote. PN stronger in its heartlands For example, despite a seven-point drop in turnout in St Ju- lian's, the PN only lost two points in an election which saw the election of a new mayor, Albert Buttigieg, who d i s t i n g u i s h e d himself by taking a strong stance on environmen- tal issues. In Nadur, led by former PN minister Chris Said's brother Ed- ward Said, a popular and effective mayor, the PN even managed to defy the national trend, increas- ing its major- ity from 50% to 57%. In Ik- lin, despite an e i g h t - p o i n t drop in turn- out the PN managed to retain the same ma- jority as in 2013 and is just one percent down from its result in 2008. And in a clear in- dication that the drop in turnout did not un- duly penalise the PN is that in Slie- NEWS How PN support shrunk over 20 years A swing towards Labour turns Malta red, while third parties failed to chip at a hegemonised political landscape. JAMES DEBONO digs deep into the numbers Have we really taken Valletta? Jubilation for Labour as One TV host Alfred Zammit (top) is crowned mayor of the capital city, a first-time victory for the PL - below, how that final local council map looked, pretty red... Echoes of implosion