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6 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 21 AUGUST 2019 ANALYSIS JAMES DEBONO BOOSTED by the results of MEP elections and riding high on the polls which put him close to winning power alone without even the need of allies, Matteo Salvini pushed his own government to the brink by calling for fresh elec- tions. This was a big gamble for Salvini. For while governing in coalition with the M5S tied his hands, he was still able to call the shots especially on the issue most dear to his heart; immigration. Now he risks losing power without being able to get what he initially wanted; an Autumn election which would have freed his hands from the incon- venience of having to compro- mise with allies who have more seats in parliament than him. Instead he may end up in op- position. The end result is that Salvini's political astuteness is now be- ing questioned. The success of his mid summer announce- ment depended on paralyzing the M5S. Instead faced with an existential threat the Move- ment has used what could be its ultimate advantage; its flexibil- ity to build alliances across the board. Salvini seems to have down- played the possibility of an alternative government com- posed of the Democratic Party and the Cinque Stelle who to- gether command an even larger majority than the current gov- ernment. Salvini may well have banked that the bad blood between the Democrats and his former pop- ulist allies which would have prevented them from ganging up against him. Yet by pushing for an elec- tion to exploit the weakness of his former allies, he may well have pushed Di Maio in to the embrace of the centre left, with the latter making the calcula- tion that the choice is between kissing the proverbial frog or handing over the country to the most right wing govern- ment in post war Italian history. Ironically the most enthusi- astic for an agree- ment was former Premier Matteo Renzi who had sabotaged any agreement with the popu- lists on all previous occasions. Moreover the break with Salvi- ni may well have re-compacted the M5S whose left wing mi- nority led by Roberto Fico, the President of the lower cham- ber, where increasingly uncom- fortable with the pact with the extreme right. Moreover Salvini's abrupt move has also surprised his for- mer allies in the centre-right, with Berlusconi turning down a proposal for a single right wing list headed by Salvini himself. Salvini still needs Forza Italia and Fratelli d'Italia to win in the south even if he is closer to right wing leaders like Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen than to the European People's Party in which Forza Italia is an- chored. So far the Italians have voted Salvini knowing that he would not be governing alone and would be tamed by his al- lies. A poll published on 12 August showed Salvini's party at 32% down from 38% on the eve of the political crisis he un- leashed. Salvini may well have over played his hand. Salvini's new card Therefore Salvini does not want to be blamed for the cri- sis and gives the impression of backtracking, not excluding a re-edition of his alliance with the M5S. That was why instead of withdrawing his ministers from the government he waited for Giuseppe Conte to present his resignation yesterday. Yet in a strong speech yesterday Conte squarely blamed Salvini for the crisis, attacking Salvini's lack of political culture, his use of religious symbols to make propaganda and for putting his personal interests before those of the country. In this way Con- te has passed the buck to the Italian President who will now explore whether a new govern- ment can be formed. Salvini who just a few days ago had unceremoniously dumped his allies in a bid for elections which would have given him"full powers" is now invoking public wrath against the possibility of a new gov- ernment which excludes him, describing as a betrayal of the electorate's will. Salvini knows that the forma- tion of a government which in- cludes the democrats who were voted out in the 2017 election may not go down with voters who voted for change. Yet Sal- vini himself is forgetting that he had contested the 2017 general elections as part of the c e n t r e - r i g h t coalition with B e r l u s c o n i , which he had abandoned to join the M5S in govern- ment. By seeking an agreement with the centre left, the M5S would be simply substitut- ing the Lega with the Democrats as their junior coalition partner. The government will still be led by the party which won a rela- tive majority in 2017. Moreover constitutionally the President of the Republic is bound to seek an alternative majority before taking the country to the polls. The only snag in this argument is that recent European elec- tions have confirmed the Lega as Italy's strongest party at 34% up from 17% in 2017 while the M5S have fallen from 33% in 2017 to 17% now. This re- inforces his argument that such a govern- ment would be a "coalition of losers". In this way Salvini can play his last card; either an election now or face the risk on an even stronger Lega if the polls are delayed. This means that to take away the wind from Salvini's sail, any alternative government has to last and deliver on improved living standards, and thus be in a position to change the mood of the electorate. That is why Beppe Grillo, the founder of the M5S is insisting on pact which lasts for entire legislature. This would be difficult con- sidering the historical rivalry between the PD and the M5S. It is also difficult to reconcile Renzi's pro business agenda with the M5S's opposition to big infrastructural projects and support for basic income schemes. Yet the alliance may be more palatable to the M5S's electorate which includes a large segment of voters who used to vote for the Italian Communist Party. Has Salvini been outsmarted? On 8 August Salvini triggered a political crisis in the middle of the summer lull by calling for fresh election but now he is at risk of being sent back to the opposition benches. Has the Italian far right lost the bird in hand while craving the two in the bush? Matteo Renzi Luigi Di Maio Matteo Salvini, who is also deputy prime minister, hopes to trigger early elections, which polls suggest his League party and right-wing allies could win