Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1196490
8 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 29 DECEMBER 2019 ELECTIONS remain the ulti- mate litmus test for political parties and the European Par- liament election last May con- firmed the primacy of the La- bour Party. Two years into its second mandate, which it won on the back of a historic victory in June 2017, the PL did not suffer from the mid-term blues that often afflict parties in government. The PL registered 54.3% and an advantage of almost 43,000 votes over a floundering Na- tionalist Party, as it secured four of the six seats up for grabs. The election result was con- firmed in the round of local elections held on the same day, with the PL winning localities like Valletta that had always re- turned a Nationalist majority. The election results confirmed the trend that had been cap- tured in the previous months by the MaltaToday surveys that were consistently giving the PL a very comfortable advantage. After the May elections, the next set of polling by MaltaTo- day started in October. The re- sults pretty much followed the pre-election trend line with the PL scoring above 40% and the PN unable to go beyond 28%. However, a cautious analysis of the results indicates that the PL may have started a slow de- cline since October. The PL lost just over two points between October and the first week of December, while the PN gained almost five points. That down- ward trend persisted in a sec- ond survey held in the middle of December, taking the PL's losses to almost four points in three months and the PN's gains to just over six points. The second December result (41.5%) is the lowest the party scored throughout 2019, apart from the May survey that pre- ceded the European Parliament election. Analysing the eight polls undertaken this year by Mal- taToday shows that the PL's December result (second sur- vey) is more than a point below the average the party obtained throughout 2019. However, the numbers have to be read with caution because the PL's four-point decline since October is within the margin of error of the surveys. The increase in the PN's share of support is more significant and the second December re- sult (29.5%) is almost three points higher than the average obtained by the party through- out the year. It also is the high- est result the PN has achieved since May 2018. For a party that has suffered internal division, the upward NEWS Christmas specials • Numbers don't lie Does Labour face a slow decline? The European Parliament election victory in May gave the Labour Party another historic win and caused mayhem in the Nationalist Party. Here's how the MaltaToday surveys showed a changed landscape KURT SANSONE Type something 0 10 20 30 40 50 6-Oct-19 3-Nov-19 8-Dec-19 22-Dec-19 45.3% 44.4% 43.1% 41.5% 23.3% 26.9% 27.6% 29.5% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 8.6% 11.3% 11.6% 15.1% 17.5% 15.7% 15.4% PL PN PD AD Don't know Not Voting A four-point loss may be dismissed by the PL given that the government had to contend with the backlash caused by the migrant riot in Hal Far last October, and then by the political turmoil that hit Castille when a suspect in the Daphne Caruana Galizia murder pointed a finger at the Prime Minister's former chief of staff Keith Schembri. The losses could have been worse but the number crunchers at Labour HQ in Hamrun are very likely to keep an eye on the trend line, now that the party will get a new leader in January.