Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1199625
KURT SANSONE ROBERT Abela has come from behind to edge ahead in what promises to be a very tight leadership contest, a MaltaTo- day survey shows. The survey, which is not an exit poll, was conducted among Labour Party members who were eligible to vote. It was held between Wednesday 8 January and Friday 10 January. MaltaToday took the decision to pub- lish the results only after polling closed at 8pm on Saturday so as not to influence the outcome of the race. The survey shows that Robert Abela enjoyed the support of 51.5% of party members, against Chris Fearne's 48.5%, when results are extrapolated on those who declared their voting intention. The margin of error on the extrapolat- ed results stands at 5.1%, which means that any of the two candidates has the chance to emerge as winner. Abela's support ranges between 46.4% and 56.6%, while Fearne's ranges be- tween 43.4% and 53.6%. The survey is conditioned by the large number of people who were uncertain who to vote for (44.8%) and who would vote for none of the contenders (1.6%). However, these figures represent a sig- nificant drop from those registered in another members' survey carried out by MaltaToday last week. The previous survey, conducted on 2 January and 3 January found that 58.9% of members did not know who to vote for and 9.5% had said they would vote for none of the two candidates. More members have made up their mind or decided to declare their vot- ing intention since then, and it appears that Abela was the net beneficiary of this shift. The raw results give Abela 27.6% and Fearne 26%. The margin of error for the raw results stands at 3.7%, which again suggests that this will be a tight race. The raw figures show that Abela is more popular than Fearne among men, while women are evenly split between the two candidates. More than half of women members were undecided, which suggests that they could be the decisive factor in a very tight race. Abela has strengthened his advantage among the younger age groups but has also gained invaluable territory among those aged between 51 and 65, where he edged in front of Fearne. The Deputy Prime Minister main- tained his advantage among those aged 65 and over. The PL membership base is heavily skewed towards the older age groups. There were around 17,500 members eligible to vote. This was the first time that the Labour leader was chosen by members. The official result is expected later to- night, possibly in the early hours of Sun- day. Why is this not an exit poll? Exit polls are done after a person has voted. This means an exit poll will be asking people how they actually voted. MaltaToday did not carry out an exit poll. The survey polled party members on their voting preference before polling day. The survey was conducted between 8 and 10 January. Why is it a tight race if Abela is in front? The difference between both candi- dates is well within the margin of error. Which means that the result for both candidates can oscillate between a mini- mum and maximum, which in this case can give either candidate victory. What the results show is that Abela has defi- nitely gained ground. But the outcome will also depend on how the 44.8% of undecided voters cast their preference. 2 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 12 JANUARY 2020 NEWS Tight race put Abela ahead Raw results Don't Know None Chris Fearne Robert Abela Women 51.8% 1.9% 23.3% 23% Men 39.3% 1.3% 28.2% 31.2% 18-35 38% 3.4% 22.5% 36.1% 36-50 39.5% 1.6% 23.7% 35.2% 51-65 45.7% 0.4% 26.4% 27.5% 65+ 48.2% 1.9% 27.7% 22.2% Overall 44.8% 1.6% 26% 27.6% Margin of error 3.7% Extrapolated results Chris Fearne Robert Abela Women 50.3% 49.7% Men 47.4% 52.6% 18-35 38.4% 61.6% 36-50 40.3% 59.7% 51-65 48.9% 51.1% 65+ 55.5% 44.5% Overall 48.5% 51.5% Margin of error 5.1% MaltaToday Survey CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 At 12:52am, Labour's deputy leader for party affairs, Chris Cardona, called it for Robert Ab- ela, saluting him as the new Labour leader and prime minister of Mal- ta. Consistently, Abela was leading at 60% by the time 20 of the 44 ballot boxes had been counted by the time of going to print. Labour Party members voted yesterday to elect Joseph Muscat's succes- sor. Of the 17,531 members eligible to vote in the election, 16,216 cast their vote to choose between Labour MP Robert Abela, son of President emeri- tus George Abela and a former leadership rival to Muscat in 2008; and deputy prime minister and health minister Chris Fearne. Polls closed at 8pm. Polling stations at 13 PL clubs, one in each elector- al district, opened at 8am. Vote counting took place at PL headquarters in Hamrun yesterday night. Around 30 media hous- es, including Reuters, BBC, and Al Jazeera have been granted access to cover the event. Joseph Muscat voted in Naxxar at 10am, where he was greeted by well- wishers outside the party club. Fearne voted in Fgura, while Abela voted in Qormi. Voters who spoke to MaltaToday outside the Teatru Rialto in Bormla and the Labour club in Fgura, where supporters from both camps stood outside after they submit- ted their vote, claimed they had no particu- lar preference between Robert Abela and Chris Fearne, only wishing that whoever is elected will hopefully retain the big majority that Muscat had guaranteed. "The important thing is that whoever gets elected will continue to give a continuous trashing to the Nationalist Party," one voter told MaltaTo- day. Another voter in Borm- la said that if whoever is elected followed Mus- cat's footsteps, "not only would he guarantee a ma- jority but an even bigger one." Over 16,000 Labour Party members choose Muscat's successor Party officials get ready for the counting process: Labour international secretary Marc Vella Bonnici, PL deputy leader Chris Cardona, party vice-president Louis Gatt, party organisational secretary William Lewis and former Msida mayor Alex Sciberras