Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1278887
12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 AUGUST 2020 NEWS KURT SANSONE NATIONALIST Party mem- bers will be choosing a new leader soon and surveys pub- lished so far give Bernard Grech a comfortable advantage over incumbent Adrian Delia. A MaltaToday survey among PN members published last Sunday showed that 50.8% be- lieved Grech was best suited to solve the problems within the party. He was followed by Delia at 12.8%, lawyer Joe Giglio at 8.6% and MEP Roberta Metsola at 4.9%. Another survey conducted by MISCO among PN members gave Grech a clear advantage over Delia when respondents were asked to choose between the two. But the question that often crops up in these circumstanc- es is to what extent do the par- ty members – a demographic that is heavily-skewed towards those aged 50 and over – re- flect the party's electoral voting base, which is much bigger and more varied. We look at some numbers to try and find the answer. In December last year, a Mal- taToday survey among the gen- eral population asked people whom they trusted most from a list of potential PN leadership contenders. At the time, there was no open challenge to Delia but the country was passing through political turmoil that led to prime minister Joseph Muscat's resignation. The results showed that Grech emerged top with 15.1%, fol- lowed by Metsola at 12.9% and Delia placed third with 10.7%. A breakdown of these results by political party allegiance again placed Grech in pole posi- tion among PN voters. His trust rating stood at 33.3% among those who voted PN in the 2017 general election, ahead of Delia at 23.4% and Metsola at 22.6%. Grech also emerged on top among those who voted for the Labour Party in the 2017 elec- tion. He managed a trust rating of 4.7%, as opposed to 2.9% for Metsola and 2.1% for Delia. Although the questions from last year and this year are not strictly comparable, the results from last December suggest that the trust ratings deter- mined by PN voters were re- flected in the choices made by party members in last week's survey. But possibly more impor- tant in electoral terms, the PN members' choices also reflect- ed the trust rating achieved by Grech among PL voters. While this has no bearing on whether the choices made by members are the right ones or not, this comparison does deflate the bubble that par- ty members do not reflect the pulse of the wider electorate. Our survey called it! How the tesserati reflect the sentiment of PN voters 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Gozo Northern Northern Harbour South Eastern Southern Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 54.8% 17.3% 10.6% 8.4% 28.4% 27.3% 17.3% 10.2% 36.4% 19.3% 14.5% 8.0% 9.4% 51.7% 16.8% 8.7% 12.5% 7.3% 50.5% 11.6% 14.4% 10.1% 48.0% 14.5% 13.6% 8.8% 8.2% 32.1% 35.3% 8.0% 10.1% 36.6% 25.0% 10.1% 19.3% 47.6% 10.4% 16.4% 7.0% 12.8% 47.9% 24.0% 7.5% 11.1% 33.3% 9.5% 21.5% 18.9% 39.8% 36.8% 15.5% 37.6% 19.7% 15.7% 7.3% 7.0% 29.9% 19.8% 16.7% 10.8% 15.5% 28.3% 25.6% 16.2% 11.5% 46.5% 23.5% 7.5% 9.2% 66.6% 26.0% 22.9% 27.2% 43.1% 60.0% 8.2% 5.7% 9.0% 61.4% 13.5% 11.0% 12.4% 47.6% 30.2% 6.3% 47.6% 30.2% 6.3% 47.5% 12.0% 25.9% 43.8% 25.8% 13.0% 7.6% 34.4% 12.7% 27.3% 8.7% 6.0% 46.8% 19.8% 9.3% 14.9% 40.2% 16.7% 12.0% 6.3% 12.3% All Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Gozo Northern 50.8% 12.8% 12.4% 8.6% 7.6% 56.9% 11.1% 9.0% 8.0% 9.4% 44.4% 14.7% 16.0% 9.2% 5.8% 56.6% 11.3% 10.1% 5.4% 11.2% 53.3% 5.8% 10.6% 17.2% 9.1% 45.4% 15.4% 19.6% 7.1% 6.0% 51.7% 14.6% 9.0% 8.9% 9.0% 51.4% 18.1% 11.1% 12.4% 43.0% 18.1% 13.9% 10.8% 8.1% 53.4% 11.0% 18.0% 8.0% 63.7% 7.1% 9.5% 9.9% 5.4% 50.3% 16.4% 12.2% 7.9% 7.9% 38.5% 28.8% 10.6% 7.2% 7.7% 56.3% 13.6% 13.0% 9.2% 7.9% 53.0% 23.3% 13.5% 46.7% 17.9% 9.6% 7.3% 7.0% 32.0% 23.1% 18.4% 9.9% 10.5% 45.4% 12.2% 25.6% 8.9% 56.8% 11.3% 14.9% 7.6% 55.6% 10.0% 7.8% 13.2% 59.6% 28.1% 5.6% 36.4% 9.6% 13.2% 8.7% 26.4% 54.7% 11.3% 7.3% 13.7% 9.4% 63.5% 21.2% 9.1% 63.5% 21.2% 9.1% 54.4% 7.5% 15.5% 15.0% 5.3% Grech Delia Don't know Giglio None Metsola Comodini Cachia Sammut Top five choices for leader who can resolve the identified issues Bernard Grech 15.1% trust rating Lawyer whose first foray was in the anti- divorce campaign, Grech enjoys a higher trust rating than Delia, which rises to 28.5% among those who say they will vote PN now, and is especially liked by those aged 51 and over, and considerably from the northern harbour and western regions The popular MEP has a high trust rating among university- educated voters (29.7%) and younger voters (17% among 18-35 and 16% among 36-50); overall trust (12.9%) is higher than Delia, but less among those who say they will vote PN now (22.3%) PN leader Adrian Delia can count on a sizeable PN following (27.4% trust rating) even though he is pipped by Bernard Grech. He is more trusted by those aged 36-50 and mainly among those aged 65, and with a primary and second education. He has less of a following in the south than, for example, Metsola, who can bank on a 14.5% trust rating from the south-eastern region. He definitely suffers in the young and university-educated vote, when compared to Grech and Metsola In with a showing are the criminal defence lawyer Joe Giglio (left) and the Nationalist MP Claudio Grech, although Giglio scores a higher trust among PN voters (13%) than Claudio Grech Roberta Metsola 12.9% trust rating Adrian Delia 10.7% trust rating Joe Giglio 5.9% Claudio Grech 3.4% Respondents to MaltaToday Survey asked whom they trust the most to lead the PN December 2019 August 2020 Bernard Grech's TV punditry turned him into a rising star early on, as MaltaToday's survey had shown back in 2019