Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1278887
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 AUGUST 2020 NEWS THE latest MaltaToday survey, conduct- ed among PN members before other po- tential candidates like Roberta Metsola and Therese Comodini Cachia withdrew their inter-est in the leadership, clearly shows that Bernard Grech was not sim- ply the choice of the rebel MPs in a chess move against Adrian Delia. His candida- ture was already making waves in the par- ty's grassroots before the internal opposi- tion settled on his name. By clearing the field for him, the parlia- mentary group is responding to the aspira- tions of party members, who have shown more trust in Grech than Delia across all electoral districts and overwhelmingly strong in both the Labour-leaning fifth district, which includes Birzebbugia and Zurrieq, and the tenth district, which in- cludes Sliema and St Julian's. Significant- ly, he is accepted across the PN's internal class divide, with members with different levels of education backing him over De- lia. The high trust levels enjoyed by Grech across electoral districts and age groups, and the perception that he is the most likely to bring about unity, suggest that is likely to win the contest with Delia. But what hurdles does he face once elected? 1. His party is seen as a lame duck Bernard Grech takes over a party con- sidered as having practically no chance of winning the next election. While the party may hope that it could narrow the gap with Labour, the perception that a party with little chance of winning makes a recov- ery is even more unlikely. And this weakens the party's appeal, not just among voters, but also amongst potential candidates who would only sacrifice their professional career by jumping on a winning cart. This weakens the party's appeal to donors and funders who don't invest in a party with no future. To succeed Grech needs to ditch the perception that his party is a lost cause. One advan- tage is that surveys indicate he can heal the PN divide to pres- ent the electorate with a united front. Without that, the PN starts at a disadvan- tage. Re-compacting the Nationalist bloc, Grech could bank on a polls surge with the return of PN voters previously unde- cided on whether to vote, which could al- so generate a a ripple effect on the wider electorate. What Grech cannot afford at this stage is losing Delia loyalists, offsetting gains made with other PN voters. That is why Grech needs to win fairly and squarely, and keeping him on board: any exclusion of Delia would backfire on Grech. Even if Grech recovers all PN voters in 2017, he will still lose the election with the same margin as Simon Busuttil. That's why it is vital for Grech to keep traction, moving from compacting the Nationalist vote, to winning over floaters and Labour voters. Polls will be a challenge for Grech as they register his progress or cripple per- ceptions without giving him enough time to take difficult decisions in the party's long-term interests. 2. His front bench is weak and lacks di- versity Grech never served as an MP and lacks experience in party structures. He would take over a party with a limited talent pool in key areas like science, economy, finance and social policy. The party also needs greater diversity, as it is too asso- ciated with middle-aged, white, hetero- sexual male lawyers – just like Grech, a lawyer to boot. He would need a team that has the semblance of a government in waiting, and unfortunately for him, the MPs he inherits are not just demor- alised but also poor in both quality and diversity. To succeed Grech needs to co- opt a new generation of party spokesper- sons from outside parliament to assist his shadow cabinet. This may prove tricky, and could be perceived as a threat to sitting MPs. 3. Grech must make it clear he is in for the long haul Grech will have to dispel the perception that he is simply holding the pieces together until a new leader is elected after the inevitable defeat of the party in the next election. To give Labour a run for its money, he will have to restore the PN's own financial fortunes without being slavishly bankrolled by big business, an ar- duous route that requires a wave of enthusiasm from the moment he gets elected. The key to his success will be his gravitas, which could earn him the respect of rival factions. If he is loved, feared and respected in equal measure, he may well succeed where his predecessors failed. 4. Liberals are uneasy with his anti-di- vorce baggage Grech's first foray in national politics was on the losing side of the divorce ref- erendum. Now he is keen to emphasise that he has changed his opinion over a number of years during which he found himself filing applications for divorce on behalf of clients. Grech is bound to face questions on his judgement in opposing such a civil right, which is considered basic in practically the whole world. His declarations in 2011 are bound to return to haunt him, especially in those instances where his opposition to divorce seemed moulded in an ideological conservatism; one of them was his suggestion that re- married spouses should not contest court orders preventing them from 'exposing' their children to their new "same or op- posite sex" partners. He now makes a dis- tinction between his stance as a private individual in the 2011 referendum and his new role as politician where he has an obligation "to look at many other aspects and not only the details and difficulties with the legal articles themselves." Grech is aware of the need to strike a balance between conservatives and lib- erals in the PN, arguing that while it is "good to have liberal ideas and thoughts one must also have wisdom and the need to really work for the good of the country and not for the good of the few." This sug- gests he is keen on presenting himself as an 'en-lightened conservative', someone who can be flexible and compassionate but ready to press the brakes to ensure that change is accompanied by delibera- tion. But does Grech still associate the com- mon good with the State's role as enforcer on moral issues, or is he limiting himself to themes like the environment and social justice where the State intervenes without infringing on personal life choices? Grech may console himself with the way Joseph Muscat was absolved by the electorate on After uniting Nationalists, can Grech win over floaters? MaltaToday polls show Bernard Grech in pole position to replace Adrian Delia and reunite the Nationalist Party. But can he also reach out to f loaters and Labour vot-ers? JAMES DEBONO on the hurdles he faces if he replaces Delia "Grech will have to decide how pluralistic the PN can be on various issues. Any political leader has to live with a reality where, although most PN voters are to various degrees conservative, the party cannot win without voters who are to various degrees liberal" What Grech cannot afford at this stage is losing Delia loyalists, offsetting gains made with other PN voters