Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1541360
As was the case last month, the gap between the two main parties is similar to that between the main parties in the 2024 MEP elections. Moreover, a sur- vey published by MaltaToday around this time last year after the budget had the two parties neck and neck with La- bour overtaking the PN by substantial margins in subsequent months and cul- minating in a 39,000 vote lead in June 2025. Key to Labour's decline is a significant increase in non-voters among those who voted for it in the 2022 general election—these increased from 6.7% in June to 9.9% in October to 11.8% now. This suggests that the party's stronger appeal to core voters in the past months has not paid off. But it could also sug- gest that in a bid to entice its core vote it has alienated the more moderate Labour voters from the 2022 general election. In fact, a regional breakdown shows the PL increasing its lead in the two Labour-leaning regions while los- ing support in the other four regions. But the PL's losses are also compound- ed by a small shift towards the PN as was the case last month. In a sign of renewed enthusiasm under its new leader Alex Borg, the survey also shows that the percentage of non-vot- ers among those who voted PN in the last general election has decreased from 10.5% in June to 5.2% in October to 5% now. The PN now retains more of its 2022 votes than the PL does, contrary to what was the case before the election of Borg as leader. While in June the PL retained 87.2% of its votes and the PN retained 82.1%, now the PN is retain- ing 86.8% of its voters while the PL is retaining 78.9%. Small shift from PL to PN The survey suggests that the PN has not only consolidated its core vote but is also making small inroads among PL voters. The survey shows that while 7.9% of Labour voters in 2022 will now vote for the PN, the PN is losing a smaller percentage (5.4%) of its voters to the PL. However, these gains by the PN are partly offset by greater loss- es to third parties. While the PL only loses 1.4% of its 2022 support to third parties the PN loses 2.8% of its voters to smaller parties. More significantly for the PN is the higher percentage of non-voters in the 2022 election who are now choosing the PN. While 17.8% of this cohort now choose the PN, only 7.7% are opting for Labour. This suggests that under the new leader the PN is attracting more former voters who abstained in 2022. When taking into account of the dif- ferent shifts from one party or category to the other, it is the increase in absten- tion among PL voters which best ex- plains the decrease in support for Rob- ert Abela's party. PN leads in four regions out of six The survey shows solid leads for the PL in the South Harbour (21.8 points) and South Eastern regions (33 points). Compared to October, support for the PL has shot up from 49.3% to 54% in the South Eastern region and from 47.4% to 49.9% in the South Harbour region. On the other hand, the PN is now leading by substantial margins in the Northern (11.1 points) and North Har- bour (10.5 points). Support for the PN has shot up from 37.9% to 44% in the Northern region and from 38.8% to 42.9% in the North Harbour region. But while the PN still holds Gozo by a 4.9-point margin, its support has de- clined by eight points. The survey also shows Gozo reporting the lowest ab- stention rate (16%). It is important to note that results for regional breakdowns are only indicative due to the substantially higher margin of error in these subgroups. PN leads among younger voters For the second consecutive time, the survey shows the PN leading among 16- to 35-year-olds even if its lead in this category has shrunk from eight points last month to three points now. Nonetheless, the PL still leads the PN by nearly six points among 36- to 50-year-olds and by four points among pensioners. But the two parties are neck and neck among 51- to 65-year-olds, a category where the PL leads by less than two points. The survey still shows a higher ab- stention rate among younger voters; 24.8% among 16- to 35-year-olds and 25.5% among 36- to 50-year-olds. A gender-divide One of the most surprising results of the survey is the emergence of a gender THE ALL-NEW B10 STARTING FROM €20,900* (*2025 GOVERNMENT GRANTS AND SCRAPPAGE SCHEME INCLUDED. TERMS AND CONDITIONS APPLY). mt SURVEY SUNDAY • 16 NOVEMBER 2025 | maltatoday < CONTINUES FROM PREVIOUS PAGE PN leads in four of six regions, among Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote Age 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 43.3% 31.5% 25.2% 43.8% 31% 25.2% 46.5% 36.3% 17.2% 47.1% 42.2% 10.7% Robert Abela Alex Borg None Trust Barometer Profile of non-voters Age Gender Regions Education Past vote 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 24.8% 25.5% 18.3% All Voters Robert Abela Alex Borg None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 45.2% 35.3% 19.5% All Voters October 2025 PL 48.7% ADPD 4.1% Momentum 1.2% PN 46.1% Others 0.0% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Primary Secondary Post-secondary Tertiary PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote Education 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary 55.3% 35.2% 9.4% 48.8% 36.5% 14.8% 40.7% 36.1% 23.2% 28.4% 32.8% 38.8% Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Alex Borg None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 45.2% 35.3% 19.5% All Voters October 2025 Voters intention based on age Voters intention based on education level PL 48.7% ADPD 4.1% Momentum 1.2% PN 46.1% Others 0.0% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 110.0% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 Female Male 34.9% 43.1% 1% 3.4% 0% 17.5% 44% 31.2% 1% 3.2% 0% 20.6% PL PN Momentum ADPD Others Will not vote Gender 110% 100% 90% 80% Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Alex Borg None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 45.2% 35.3% 19.5% All Voters October 2025 Voters intention based on gender