Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/627675
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 17 JANUARY 2016 12 MaltaToday Survey Present voting intentions of different categories of 2013 voters 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? 3.4% 2.2% 13.5% 1.1% 79.8% 67.9% 41.7% 30.6% 6.9% 13.4% 11.8% -1p -0.5p -0.8p -0.3p 5.3p -0.7p CHANGE OVER OCT 30.2% 27.6% 0.9% 13.7% 18.6% 9% PL PN AD Not voting Don't know No reply 19.4% PN VOTERS in 2013 PL VOTERS in 2013 SWITCHERS in 2013 ALL RESPONDENTS JAMES DEBONO JOSEPH Muscat has emerged as clearly more popular than his party, being trusted by 38% of voters. That's eight points more than the percentage of voters who are sure of voting Labour again in an election. On the other hand Busuttil is just one point more popular than his own party. The survey was conducted after the Christmas recess, which was dominated by the controversy over the PM's New Year address, which saw him visiting the kitch- en of a young couple who turned out to be the owners of a furniture factory. The survey indicates a small but consist- ent shift in favour of the PN. But it also shows a considerable movement between both parties. While nearly 7% of PL voters in 2013 have switched to the PN, 3% of PN voters in 2013 have switched to the PL, confirm- ing Muscat's continued ability to charm a segment of the Nationalist electorate, with the PN still suffering a haemorrhage to La- bour – the 3% of 2013 PN voters who said they would vote for Labour, down from 5% back in October. Altogether, the survey suggests that un- der Busuttil's leadership the PN is narrow- ing the gap with Labour, but Muscat firmly remains the most trusted leader. Moreo- ver, although the gap between the parties has been reduced to three points, unde- cided voters who trust Muscat more than Busuttil could once again tip the balance in favour of the Labour Party. The dilemma for Labour is that of alien- ating more switchers in its bid to mobilise or please disgruntled core voters intent on not voting. Muscat loses 2 points Despite the difficulties he is facing as PM, Muscat retained a strong trust lead but has seen a two point drop since October. Sig- nificantly he has seen his trust rating de- cline by six points over last year's figures. This suggests that diminishing standards of governance have taken a toll on the PM's popularity. Busuttil failed to capitalise on these losses, retaining the same rating as that registered in both October and in Janu- ary 2015. What has changed since last year is the gap between the two leaders, with Muscat's rating taking a nose dive while Busuttil's remained stable. The survey also confirms Busuttil's ability to appeal to a segment of switch- ers who voted PN in 2008 and Labour in 2013. Back in March, only 9% of these voters preferred him. Now 25%, com- pared to 27% in October, prefer him to Muscat. This suggests that Busuttil's more assertive style of leadership over the past year, which has seen him ditch two former Ministers (Joe Cassar and Giovanna Debono), is paying some divi- dends. Busuttil has also firmly consolidated his position among 2013 PN voters – 81% of whom regard him as the most trusted leader, up from 79% in October and 77% in June. This shows that over the past months Busuttil consolidated his posi- tion among PN voters while making lim- ited inroads among switchers and Labour voters. Muscat still manages to charm a segment of the PN's 2013 voters: 3% say they now prefer him to Busuttil, down from 6% in October. What is of concern to Muscat is the con- firmation of a numerous segment of PL voters in 2013 that trust neither leader – up from 7% to 12% since June and down from 13% in October – suggesting that Busuttil stands strong with his restricted electorate, while Muscat faces problems with his electorate while still enticing a segment of PN voters. Significantly the survey shows the number of respondents who trust neither leader rise by 11 points but this is mainly accounted for by an eight-point decrease in undecided respondents. Yet Muscat's drop has mainly been reflected in the in- crease in respondents who trust neither him nor Busuttil. This may reflect greater skepticism of voters with regard to the po- litical class. One third of switchers go back home For the third consecutive time, the sur- vey registers a small but significant shift in favour of the PN. 7% of PL voters in 2013 say they will vote for the PN; only 3% of PN voters will vote PL. This suggests Labour has lost some 11,600 votes of its 2013 voters to the PN… which is itself losing 4,500 to the PL. Sur- prisingly, despite higher concern on envi- ronmental issues, the Greens only garner 1% in the survey and do not benefit from any swing from either party. But 31% of switchers – PN voters who switched to Labour in 2013 – now say they will vote for the PN again, up from just 12% in March. Despite its inroads among switchers, the PN has not entirely stemmed the haemor- rhage of votes to Labour. But the party seems less vulnerable to Muscat's appeal to middle-of-the-road 8.3% As switchers make slow retreat, both leaders lose trust points Muscat still manages to charm a segment of the PN's 2013 voters: 3% say they now prefer him to Busuttil, down from 6% in October For the third consecutive time, the survey registers a small but significant shift in favour of the PN Methodology Survey held between Monday 11 January and Thursday 14 January. 688 respondents contacted and survey stopped after 450- quota sample reached. Margin of error +/-4.6 percentage points. 38.3.% of respondents said they voted PL in 2013, while 25.4% said they voted PN – which suggests a slight over representation of PL voters in the sample. For which party did respondents say they voted in 2013 PL 38.3% PN 25.4% AD 1.1% Didn't vote 7.4% Under-18 4.3% No reply 23.5%