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14 IT would be facile to point out that we live in times of great un- certainty. Five years after the so- called 'Arab Spring' toppled gov- ernments across North Africa and the Middle East, there is a growing sensation that more and more ter- ritories are succumbing to a par- ticularly aggressive wave of radical Islam. The Islamic State (ISIS) is per- haps the most recognisable name associated with this phenom- enon. Now firmly established in Syria and Iraq, this radical jihad- ist movement – which aims to found a Caliphate stretching from Western Europe to the Persian Gulf – has now also taken root in nearby Libya. If this were not alarming enough, ISIS also has its aficionados in the West, finding fertile recruiting grounds among the disaffected youth of Europe and North America. As a result, we seem to be living under the permanent threat of war and ter- rorism. How did this come to pass? And what would be the best strategy to counter the rising phenomenon of radical jihadism? Joseph V. Micallef, a contribu- tor to Huffington Post, is better positioned than most to answer such questions. A historian, best- selling author, keynote speaker and commentator on military and international affairs, he has lec- tured extensively on the subject at the Institute of Strategic Studies (London), the NATO War (De- fense) College (Rome), and the Italian Institute of International Affairs (Rome). "I think, first of all, what we are seeing today is the return to an age of ideology," he tells me as we dis- cuss the situation over a coffee at the Castille Hotel, Valletta. "After the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a school of thought that this represented the 'end of history' – as though the Western tradition of secular democracy and capitalism had triumphed all over the world. While the tradition itself may take different forms in various parts of the world, it had a com- mon denominator. What seems to be emerging today is that what we refer to generally as 'jihadism' or 'radical Islam' is becoming an alternative to this ideology. It of- fers a different social, economic and political system, in much the same way as Marxism/Leninism had done a generation ago. This, I think, is one of the currents that is shaping the present age…" From this perspective, Micallef argues that the current wave of radical Islam is not so different from other anti-establishment movements of the past. "If you look at domestic jihad- ists in Europe and North Amer- ica, they tend to be people who are seemingly well-socialised into those particular cultures. Inter- estingly, it is not so much a case of American or European Mus- lims becoming 'radicalised'… it is more a case that radicals are becoming 'Islamicised'. There has always been an anti-Western tradition of radicalism winding its way through history… in the 1970s, for instance, there were movements such as Baader-Mein- hof in Germany [or the Brigate Rosse in Italy] which never really espoused a coherent ideology; it was more a mish-mash of a little Marxist-Leninism here, a little anti-capitalism there, and a lit- tle anarchism thrown in for good measure. What they believed in, fundamentally, was an attack on Western culture. I think we're seeing much the same phenom- enon today: only, in the search for an alternative ideology, people are adopting radical Islam instead." This view challenges the pre- conceived notion of 'jihadists' as a marginalised and disenfranchised minority, pushed into extremism by injustice. "If you look at the typical Ameri- can or European jihadist: in many cases, they will be native-born; their parents will be relatively well integrated into their par- ticular cultures. So it's not really a case of radicalism passed down from one generation to the next; nor is it a situation whereby Mus- lim citizens have somehow been marginalised to the very fringes of society. These are cases of youth being radicalised, and finding their ideological roots in this anti- Western movement." At the same time, it is important to keep the actual phenomenon in proportion. "First of all, there are probably something like 200,000 to300, 000 jihadists in the world right now: i.e., men and women who have joined radical organi- sations, and who have fought in some way or other. On top of those, there is somewhere be- tween 10 / 20% of the world Mus- lim population who are generally sympathetic towards jihadism. It doesn't mean they will become jihadists themselves; but they will sympathise to the extent that the might donate money, or espouse their cause in some other way. That's a considerable number of people: possibly around 200 to 300 million people who, to vary- ing degrees, support the jihadist movement." But aside from these, Micallef estimates that another 80% of the world Muslim population is not sympathetic to jihadism at all. "These people do not support ex- tremist groups, and are perfectly happy to coexist peacefully with their non-Muslim neighbours. The challenge for the West is how to deal with the 2/300,000 jihad- ists out there… how to cut them off from the support of the 2/300 million Muslims who are sympa- thetic to their cause… and how to do that in a way that doesn't alien- ate the remaining 80%. That is the challenge that has to be addressed from a policy standpoint…" How effectively are we setting about this task? Does Micallef see any coherent strategy in this sense? "No," he replies without hesi- tation. "The strategy has to date been basically incoherent. In fact, I think the fight against ISIS is already lost. What we are doing now, while important, is a case of 'too little, too late'. One thing we must appreciate is that ISIS exists in more than one form. There is ISIS the political state: that exists in Syria and Iraq, and is now try- ing to establish itself in Libya. Can we defeat ISIS the political state? Yes, I think so. I think that, if we stay the course over the next 12 to 24 months, we will eventually roll up ISIS. They are already on the defensive; they have already lost more than a quarter to a third of the territory they once control- led. So in that aspect, ISIS can be defeated." All that means, however, is that ISIS will simply revert to being an insurgency instead of a political state. "And you're not going to eliminate the insurgency without a political solution to the status of Sunni Muslims in Iraq and in Syr- ia," he adds. "ISIS could not exist without some support from these groups; without a political solu- tion, the problem will continue to fester." On a separate level, there is also ISIS the international jihad- ist movement – which has how spread to some three dozen coun- tries around the world. "Some of the affiliate move- ments– for instance, Boko Har- am in Nigeria or Al Shabaab in Somalia - are only very loosely connected to ISIS. They have sworn allegiance to the Islamic state, they call themselves the lo- cal 'franchise' in their part of the world… because they see it as a way of leveraging ISIS' reputation for their own advantage. For the most part, however, these organi- sations function independently of ISIS… although they have adopt- ed some of the same symbolism. You can see, for instance, that under the influence of ISIS, Boko Haram's media have become more sophisticated. So regardless of what happens in Syria or Iraq, those 36 franchises are going to continue. Rooting them out will have to be a country-by-country challenge…" Again, while this is technically possible, it does not address the underlying cause of the phenom- enon. "The fourth aspect is ISIS the idea. Regardless what happens to ISIS the country, or ISIS the organisation… the idea is go- ing to live on. The speeches, the propaganda, the films… all that stuff is out there, and it is out there permanently now. You can- not defeat an idea with bombs or military force. The only thing that can defeat the idea of ISIS is a better idea. And any alternative idea to jihadism, if it comes at all, will have to come from within the Muslim world. It cannot be im- posed by the West…" Does he see any indication of this alternative idea developing any time soon? "There is movement in this di- rection. [Egyptian President] El- Sisi has said that Muslims need to find a way to reconcile Islam with the rest of the world, because 'we cannot live in a world that is sus- picious of Muslims.' I think at- tempts are starting to take place… but there is no real 'idea' as yet. Interview By Raphael Vassallo maltatoday, SUNDAY, 7 FEBRUARY 2016 The fight against ISIS It is essentially an asymmetric conflict that is being fought in both conventional and non- conventional military means. And it is being fought all over the world WORLD WAR